News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Bullish
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • The Nasdaq 100-tracking QQQ ETF saw more than -$3.4 billion leave its coffers on Friday. Get your #Nasdaq market update from @PeterHanksFX here: https://t.co/NZWg2XrEuD https://t.co/S9uxEGzJjJ
  • The $QQQ ETF recently saw its largest outflow, followed by its largest inflow since October 2000 What does this mean for the Nasdaq? Read more - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/market_alert/2020/09/22/Nasdaq-100-Forecast-Exodus-from-Tech-ETF-Has-Worrisome-Historical-Parallel.html?ref-author=phanks&QPID=917701&CHID=9 https://t.co/bS0V5IsS6Z
  • Forex Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇨🇦CAD: 0.05% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.49% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.55% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.58% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.62% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.74% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/2JBbEKosO9
  • South African Rand clawing back yesterday’s depreciation against the US Dollar. Get your $USDZAR market update from @WVenketas here: https://t.co/9XCvJgRisU https://t.co/qk5KR4DncU
  • Commodities Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: -0.17% Gold: -0.57% Silver: -1.20% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/UPpRZN6FET
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 97.45%, while traders in NZD/USD are at opposite extremes with 69.16%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/JExLntdypk
  • Strong quarter from Nike - Revenue: $10.59B vs $9.11B exp - EPS: $0.95 vs $0.47 exp - However, Nike noted continued Y/Y declines in physical retail traffic - $NKE shares jump more than 8% in after-hours
  • Indices Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: FTSE 100: 0.59% Germany 30: 0.39% France 40: 0.38% US 500: 0.00% Wall Street: 0.00% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/xEWK3sBQzR
  • Australian Dollar has broken parallel support and remains at risk for further losses within the broader June uptrend. Get your $AUDUSD technical analysis from @MBForex here:https://t.co/gTmlLX5t06 https://t.co/zCN6wwnKzC
  • Based on today's chart of the #Nasdaq, do you think we are seeing the beginning of a recovery or just a temporary pause before a deeper decline?
Canadian Dollar Hits 11-yr Low vs. USD on Wholesales Trade Data Miss & Macro Factors

Canadian Dollar Hits 11-yr Low vs. USD on Wholesales Trade Data Miss & Macro Factors

2015-12-18 23:26:00
Tyler Yell, CMT, Currency Strategist
Share:
Canadian Dollar Hits 11-yr Low vs. USD on Wholesales Trade Data Miss & Macro FactorsCanadian Dollar Hits 11-yr Low vs. USD on Wholesales Trade Data Miss & Macro Factors

Fundamental Forecast for CAD: Bearish

The Canadian Dollar is definitively the weakest currency within the G10 as pressures mount on the Bank of Canada to potentially ease again. Oil is causing further pressure on the economy and another January rate hike may be in the cards should the price of Oil, which the Canadian economy relies heavily upon, fall below the 2008 intraday low of $32.40. That fear, along with the market’s favor of the US Dollar after Wednesday’s FOMC decision to raise rates and project four hikes in 2016 cased The Canadian dollar to fall to C$1.40 per US Dollar for the first time since 2004.

Inflation in Canada has been rather steady even though economists’ expectations proved too optimistic on Friday. Canada CPI rose to 1.4% Y/y in Nov. vs. Est. 1.5%. Aside from the CPI data, Canadian Wholesale Sales fell 0.6% m/m vs. est. 0.1%. Both the CPI & Wholesales trade data miss pushed USD/CAD to 1.4001, which was also 2004 high. Next week, the data schedule will be expectedly light. We have Retail Sales & GDP on Monday. GDP looks to improve from the September print of -0.5% to market expectations of +0.2%, and retail sales look similarly for improvement from the September read of -0.5% to +0.5%. A miss on these data points, especially GDP, could continue to put further downward pressure on the Canadian Dollar.

The government bond market is also worth focusing on when looking at the value of the Canadian Dollar. In short, the spread between two-year government yields in US & Canada continue to widen. There has been a significantly positive correlation historically between widening government yield spreads, and strong currency pair moves and USDCAD toward 1.4001 is no exception. The current spread displayed below is ~-48bps. You would get the spread if you were to buy the Canadian 2yr Government Notes, and sell United States 2yr Notes and take the difference between the two yields. In this example, the US spread is +48 bps. Should the spread continue to widen, the CAD could continue to weaken. Unfortunately, we've seen traders fight this move aggressively per our Trading Sentiment Tool, SSI. This fight has been costly, but the message here is that strong moves with multiple forces should not be fought.

Sign Up For a Practice Account and Receive Free Trading Guides Here

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES