News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • Crude oil prices tend to move against inventory changes. Recent fall in US crude oil inventories has underpinned WTI prices. Oil traders are eyeing weekly EIA inventory data on Wednesday, expecting further decline in stockpiles. https://t.co/MGkIuMQDME
  • Commodities Update: As of 02:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 1.47% Gold: 0.64% Oil - US Crude: -0.55% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/OmjUX9Bqn9
  • Retail trader data shows 48.82% of traders are net-long crude oil with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.05 to 1. https://t.co/EqqMQjbHt9
  • The S&P 500 may cautiously rise if investors believe a breakthrough in fiscal talks could be made before the November 3 election. Markets now brace for the final presidential debate. Get your S&P500 market update from @ZabelinDimitri here:https://t.co/CQgeT55Ax3 https://t.co/kbFybIBFhE
  • Forex Update: As of 02:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇦🇺AUD: 0.40% 🇳🇿NZD: 0.39% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.20% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.17% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.11% 🇯🇵JPY: 0.11% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/syhc439Snn
  • Technically, the Nasdaq 100 index appears to have formed a bearish “AB=CD” pattern (chart below). An immediate support level can be found at 11,650, where the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and the 20-Day Simple Moving Average (SMA) line overlap. https://t.co/XJ55wo834j
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 96.62%, while traders in EUR/USD are at opposite extremes with 72.91%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/Yso2dgKU4I
  • 10 out of 11 S&P 500 sectors closed in the green, with 70% of the index’s constituents ending higher yesterday. Energy (+1.13%) and financials (+0.82%) and were among the better performers, whereas consumer staples (-0.11%) and healthcare (+0.13%) were lagging. https://t.co/XbJZafP2qG
  • Broad risk-on tilt seen early in APAC trade - Haven-associated $USD and $JPY sliding to fresh session-lows as the risk-sensitive $AUDUSD climbs higher. - #Gold eyeing a push to session-highs while #SP500 futures hover relatively steady - #Crudeoil attempting to push back to $42 https://t.co/Uh2YW4jeAP
  • Netflix fell over 5% after its Q3 results came sharply below forecasts in terms of earnings-per-share (EPS), new subscribers and forward guidance due to a drastic slowdown in sign-ups in the summer season. https://t.co/faqGMEJlHb
Canadian Dollar Tests Fresh 2012 Lows- Outlook to Hinge on BoC

Canadian Dollar Tests Fresh 2012 Lows- Outlook to Hinge on BoC

2012-06-01 23:21:00
Michael Boutros, Strategist
Share:
Canadian_Dollar_Tests_Fresh_2012_Lows-_Outlook_to_Hinge_on_BoC_body_Picture_11.png, Canadian Dollar Tests Fresh 2012 Lows- Outlook to Hinge on BoC

Fundamental Forecast for Australian Dollar: Neutral

The Canadian dollar is off by nearly 1% at the close of trade this week with the USD/CAD advancing to levels not seen since November as falling crude prices and a weaker-than-expected GDP report weighed heavily on the loonie. Key economic data next week and continued weakness in commodity prices are likely to limit advances in the loonie in the near-term as all eyes turn to Tuesday’s Bank of Canada interest rate decision.

Looking ahead to next week, investors will be closely eyeing data out of Canada with building permits, housing starts, and employment data on tap. Over the past two years, the Canadian economy has averaged 193.35K housing starts per month. Over this same time frame, economists have forecasted gains averaging 188.32K; that’s to say that, on average, the Canadian housing market is surprising to the upside by 3.74%. Data over the past six months have been even more impressive, with housing starts averaging 208.72K against forecasts predicting 197.25K gains – that’s good for additional upside of 5.81%. The housing market continues to beat expectations by a greater margin with each passing month, boding well for Canadian consumers down the line. Policymakers have expressed some concern over the potential housing bubble in recent weeks, but we find that these concerns are overblown with more or a risk coming from the record household debt burdens which Governor Mark Carney has cited as the biggest domestic economic risk. Labor market data on Friday will also be closely as the pace of job growth is expected to ease with consensus estimates calling for the addition of just 10K jobs for the month of May, down from a previous gain of 58.2K a month earlier.

The Bank of Canada’s interest rate decision on Tuesday is sure to steal the spotlight however, with the central bank widely expected to hold the benchmark interest rate at 1.00%. The policy rate has remained at 1.00% since September of 2010, marking the longest unchanged period since the 1950s. Last month the BoC cited that a rate hike, “may become necessary” amid consumer-led domestic growth and an improved outlook on the European crisis. However with conditions in Europe continuing to deteriorate and softening Canadian growth prospects, it’s likely that Governor Mark Carney will strike a more dovish tone compared with the April statement. March GDP data released on Friday came in weaker than expected with a print of 1.6% y/y, missing calls for a read of 1.9% y/y with the loonie coming off sharply as expectations for a rate hike diminished. As it stands, Credit Suisse overnight swaps are currently factoring in only a 13% chance of a 25 basis point hike with twelve month expectations calling for another 28 basis points in interest rate hikes. As such, it’s likely that Canadian dollar advances will be limited as the central bank takes a wait-and-see approach for future monetary policy and as sharp declines in crude (one of Canada’s largest exports) continue to weigh on loonie prospects.

From a technical standpoint, the USDCAD closed the week in overbought territory with the daily RSI holding at its highest levels since early October at 75. Key topside resistance remains the November highs just above the 1.05-figure with a pullback of some magnitude likely after advancing eleven of the past fourteen sessions on a breach above the confluence of the 200-day moving average and trendline resistance dating back to the October highs. Note that although the daily relative strength index remains in over-bought territory above 70, the oscillator has yet to test the highs made back in October when the USD/CAD made fresh yearly highs above the 1.06-handle. MB

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES