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Canadian Dollar to Trim Gains as US Economic Data Moderates

Canadian Dollar to Trim Gains as US Economic Data Moderates

2011-02-19 06:05:00
Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist
Share:
Canadian_Dollar_to_Trim_Gains_as_US_Economic_Data_Moderates_body_TOF_02182011_CAD.png, Canadian Dollar to Trim Gains as US Economic Data Moderates

Fundamental Forecast for Canadian Dollar: Bearish

The Canadian Dollar retains its gearing to the S&P 500 – the benchmark US stock index – reflecting the dependence of Canada’s economy on the recovery of its larger southern neighbor. Indeed, the inverse correlation between USDCAD and the S&P now stands at a formidable -0.63 on 20-day percent change studies. To that effect, a moderation in headline US economic data over the coming week hints a bout of weakness for the Canadian currency is ahead.

The US economic calendar is packed with high-profile releases next week, with expectations calling for a relatively somber tone to the outcomes set to cross the wires. Beginning on Tuesday, Consumer Confidence is set to decline for the first in five months in January while the Richmond Fed gauge of manufacturing activity stalls in February having snapped a three-month winning streak in the previous month. The following day, Existing Home Sales are expected to print down 1.5 percent, telegraphing mounting cues of renewed turmoil in the housing market that promise to be compounded by a softer New Home Sales reading later in the week.

On the positive end of the spectrum, Durable Goods orders are set to rise 3 percent from the previous month in January, but the largest increase in four months seems less exciting give the data series’ volatility. Furthermore, the outcome will not derail overall downward drift in orders since mid-2009, hinting the outcome may prove to be a non-event. Another revision of fourth-quarter US GDP figures seems likewise unexciting given the ample set of timelier indicators on tap. Meanwhile, a busy docket of speeches from voting Federal Reserve officials may prove to be a wash once everything is said and done, with the dovish Vice Chair Janet Yellen’s remarks counterbalanced by those of hawkish-leaning moderates Narayana Kocherlakota and Charles Plosser.

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