News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Get your snapshot update of the of relative currency strength and exchange status from around the globe here: https://t.co/H19vRDCpUJ https://t.co/S74APOiQ3y
  • Two of the main Euro-pairs, $EURUSD and $EURGBP, are being driven by very different drivers. Get your market update from @nickcawley1 here: https://t.co/Vd32Y6HKEr https://t.co/Lgb5z5V1Xa
  • Recessions can devastate the economy and disrupt the fortunes of individuals, businesses, and investors. But economic decline in the business cycle is inevitable, and your trading can be defined by how you respond to crisis. learn how to prepare here: https://t.co/e4CnobJCss https://t.co/9uPXNvDBS5
  • We ended this past week with another cliffhanger. The $SPX teeters on the edge of a breakdown from the post-pandemic recovery. While we have NFPs and other key data ahead, the markets are likely to remain fixated on yields. My outlook for next week: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2021/02/27/SP-500-Dollar-Reversal-Hinge-Not-On-NFPs-but-Markets-Risk-Imagination.html?ref-author=Kicklighter&QPID=917719&CHID=9 https://t.co/mlNDDyTgex
  • Make smart trading decisions with your free guide to trade the news. Download your free guide here.https://t.co/pb5E2KgRzW #DailyFXGuides https://t.co/70ZOJ0ZMwF
  • Looking for a new way to trade reversals? One of the most used reversal candle patterns is known as the Harami. Like most candlestick formation patterns, the Harami tells a story about sentiment in the market. Get better with trading reversals here: https://t.co/rfwUWJfbz9 https://t.co/SyroornFf5
  • MACD who? The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is a technical indicator which simply measures the relationship of exponential moving averages (EMA). Find out how you can incorporate MACD into your trading strategy here: https://t.co/ZNs4QhQGQ6 https://t.co/KrMcyZZqO7
  • The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate decision may spark a bullish reaction in $AUDUSD as the central bank is expected to retain the current course for monetary policy. Get your market update from @DavidJSong here: https://t.co/WbcR9ER0qT https://t.co/TynsqCtPQ6
  • Gold has broken below a critical support confluence we’ve been tracking for months now and the risk remains for further losses while below this threshold in the weeks ahead. Get your $XAUUSD market update from @MBForex here:https://t.co/xgN2obaIWR https://t.co/H71ufPNkPg
  • Knowing how to accurately value a stock enables traders to identify and take advantage of opportunities in the stock market. Find out the difference between a stock's market and intrinsic value, and the importance of the two here: https://t.co/QszmdZFxlk https://t.co/Evr5KgUjVo
Australian Dollar Forecast: Iron Ore Prices Counterbalancing Dovish RBA

Australian Dollar Forecast: Iron Ore Prices Counterbalancing Dovish RBA

Daniel Moss, Analyst

Australian Dollar Fundamental Forecast: Mixed

  • Surging iron ore prices have counterbalanced the RBA’s decision to extend its bond purchasing program.
  • Better-than-expected employment and retail sales figures may open the door for AUD to continue gaining ground.
AUD Forecast
AUD Forecast
Recommended by Daniel Moss
Get Your Free AUD Forecast
Get My Guide

Resilient Iron Ore Prices to Underpin AUD

The recent surge in iron ore prices has buoyed the commodity-sensitive Australian Dollar over the last two weeks, despite the Reserve Bank of Australia extending its bond-buying program to keep a lid on the local currency at its February 2 meeting. The RBA “decided to purchase an additional $100 billion of bonds issued by the Australia Government and states and territories when the current bond purchase program is completed in mid-April”, adding that “these additional purchases will be at the current rate of $5 billion a week".

Governor Phillip Lowe praised the central bank’s Quantitative Easing (QE) program, stating that “the bond-purchase program has helped to lower interest rates and has meant that the Australian Dollar is lower than it other would have been”. That being said, AUD has since gained over 2.5% against its US Dollar counterpart, on the back of a 7.5% surge in iron ore prices – Australia’s most valuable export.

AUS Iron Exports to China

Data Source – Bloomberg

Tight supply conditions and robust Chinese demand has underpinned ore prices, as bad weather off the coast of Western Australia disrupted outflows from the nation’s main distribution hub in Port Headland.

However, with Chinese New Year celebrations underway, there is a distinct possibility that a decline in overall demand could weigh on the price of the metallic ore in the near term. Nevertheless, with China heavily dependent on Australian supply, and the global reflation narrative buoying commodity prices, a marked correction lower in iron ore prices seems relatively unlikely.

These factors, in tandem with an ever weakening USD, could limit the Australian Dollar’s potential downside and lead to a more extensive move higher in the medium-to-long term.

Iron Ore Daily Chart

Iron ore daily chart created using Tradingview

RBA Meeting Minutes, Employment Data in Focus

Looking ahead, employment figures and retail sales data for the month of January will be keenly eyed by local investors. A larger-than-expected drop in the unemployment rate could fuel RBA tightening bets, given Governor Lowe’s prediction that the expiration of the JobKeeper subsidy program in March may lead to “a month or two where the unemployment rate blips up”.

Positive retail sales data probably firm overall market sentiment and in turn pave the way for AUD to gain ground against its haven-associated counterparts.

Upcoming Economic Releases

DailyFX Economic Calendar

-- Written by Daniel Moss, Analyst for DailyFX

Follow me on Twitter @DanielGMoss

AUD Forecast
AUD Forecast
Recommended by Daniel Moss
Get Your Free AUD Forecast
Get My Guide

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES