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  • The rest of the New York trading session is absent major scheduled event risk with US markets closed for the Martin Luther King Jr holiday. There is always a risk of unscheduled developments
  • Commodities Update: As of 17:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 0.50% Gold: 0.41% Oil - US Crude: -0.55% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/eXSdZgvVeB
  • Despite China's better-than-expected 6.5% 4Q GDP report, $USDCNH is still up on the day. There is strong external influence on this rate, but Dollar still exerts the greater pressure. If it breaks 6.50 and Biden keeps pressure on China trade, I'll be watching https://t.co/5W5tcfeTZ5
  • Forex Update: As of 17:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇯🇵JPY: 0.19% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.05% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.02% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.16% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.25% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.28% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/BrmnTuolx0
  • The Capitol of the United States has been temporarily shut down ahead of President-Elect Biden's inauguration out of caution
  • Another Dollar pair on my radar is $USDCHF. Its 20-day day correlation coefficient to EURUSD is -0.90 (very strong negative). If the latter's break is sustained, both have appeal. If it stalls (soon), USDCHF is still abiding its resistance which supports establishing levels https://t.co/Pcre3xCbYd
  • Indices Update: As of 17:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: US 500: 0.13% France 40: 0.11% Germany 30: 0.09% Wall Street: 0.07% FTSE 100: 0.03% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/ZXdpvpEJJ3
  • Germany's central bank (Bundesbank) warned earlier today in its monthly report that if the government extended its Covid lockdown, the country could suffer "a sizeable setback"
  • The US Dollar Index rallied more than 0.6% this week marking the second consecutive weekly advance. Get your $USD update from @MBForex here: https://t.co/hVshzMbc31 https://t.co/LG0HG9fQ4c
  • There are a few Dollar pairs that have offered up a provocative, tentative technical break to suggest a reversal is possible. EURUSD is the top of my list to watch but $NZDUSD is of interest as well with many kiwi crosses offering similar view https://t.co/Ss74IIOdc7
Australian Dollar Faces Key CPI Data, Coronavirus Will Blunt Its Impact

Australian Dollar Faces Key CPI Data, Coronavirus Will Blunt Its Impact

David Cottle, Analyst
AUDUSD price chart

Fundamental Australian Dollar Forecast: Bearish

  • Australian Consumer Price Index data are coming up
  • However, interest rates are likely to remain low whatever they show
  • The Aussie’s downtrend remains in place

The Australian Dollar is like all other assets likely to remain in thrall to the battle against coronavirus in the coming week, which may not prove good news for its bulls

There is a major domestic data release on tap in the form of official inflation data for the first quarter. That’s coming up on Wednesday. Annualized price rises are expected to come in ahead of the 1.8% level seen in the last three months of 2019, possibly nudging back above the 2% base level of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s target band.

In more usual times rising prices would have the markets either on watch for a rate increase or, at least, less certain that cuts were coming. However, these aren’t usual times and in the past week Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe has cautioned that current, record low interest rates could be in place for years yet.

This is all-too-likely to blunt the effects of the data, even if markets don’t now find first quarter numbers too historic for their use anyway given. The current month is outside the scope of the numbers and, from widespread, virus-related lockdowns to the oil market’s astonishing collapse, there’s been plenty to chew over.

The Australian Dollar has fought back quite strongly against the US dollar since mid-March, benefitting as did most other growth-correlated assets from massive international stimulus and rescue programs aimed at offsetting the coronavirus’ economic effects.

However, the overall downtrend in place all year remains in place, and, as the Aussie will remain vulnerable. It’s a bearish call this week.

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AUDUSD Price Chart

Australian Dollar Resources for Traders

Whether you’re new to trading or an old hand DailyFX has plenty of resources to help you. There’s our trading sentiment indicator which shows you live how IG clients are positioned right now. We also hold educational and analytical webinars and offer trading guides, with one specifically aimed at those new to foreign exchange markets. There’s also a Bitcoin guide. Be sure to make the most of them all. They were written by our seasoned trading experts and they’re all free.

--- Written by David Cottle, DailyFX Research

Follow David on Twitter@DavidCottleFX or use the Comments section below to get in touch!

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