News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Commodities Update: As of 02:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 0.38% Oil - US Crude: 0.18% Gold: 0.13% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/Rh2ATYRz6A
  • #Bitcoin Price Forecast: #Coinbase IPO May Fuel BTC's Push to Record Highs - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/market_alert/2021/04/13/Bitcoin-Price-Forecast-Coinbase-IPO-May-Fuel-BTCs-Push-to-Record-Highs.html?CHID=9&QPID=917708&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Moss&utm_campaign=twr $BTC #CoinbaseIPO https://t.co/3iRPfZsswt
  • Forex Update: As of 02:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇬🇧GBP: -0.03% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.09% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.09% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.17% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.18% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.22% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/89nLQYaP9j
  • Chinese Q1 exports rise 38.7% y/y in Yuan terms, imports up 19.3% y/y and trade surplus at 759.3b Yuan -BBG
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 92.78%, while traders in Germany 30 are at opposite extremes with 75.83%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/qyG3FM0e7r
  • Update on #Cryptocurrencies #BITCOIN +0.95% #BITCOINCASH -1.51% #ETHEREUM +0.76% #RIPPLE +8.21% #LITECOIN +0.83%
  • What suits your style of trading stocks or commodities? Find out what are the differences in these two markets here: https://t.co/BnA07cMV0s https://t.co/Wuzmi2C95V
  • Stocks on Wall Street retreated from record highs while Treasury yields climbed following smooth bond auctions. The Hang Seng and ASX 200 indexes are poised to gain slightly ahead of Chinese trade data. https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/market_alert/2021/04/13/SP-500-Pauses-Record-Rally-Hang-Seng-and-ASX-200-Drift-Higher.html https://t.co/elDSHDBIgJ
  • Wall Street Futures Update: Dow Jones (+0.03%) S&P 500 (+0.01%) Nasdaq 100 (-0.01%) [delayed] -BBG
  • Forex quotes reflect the price of different currencies at any point in time. Since a trader’s profit or loss is determined by movements in price, it is essential to develop a sound understanding of how to read currency pairs. Learn how to read quotes here: https://t.co/CNtqrKWDBY https://t.co/ns6TUdfkEA
Australian Dollar Could Struggle With RBA Rate Call, GDP Figures

Australian Dollar Could Struggle With RBA Rate Call, GDP Figures

David Cottle, Analyst
AUDUSD 2-Hour Chart

Fundamental Australian Dollar Forecast: Bearish

  • The Reserve Bank of Australia is thought unlikely to cut rates, but is likely to sound dovish
  • Australian growth figures may well disappoint given business investment weakness
  • Bullish trade headlines might negate both and boost the Aussie, but they’re unpredictable

Find out what retail foreign exchange traders make of the Australian Dollar’s prospects right now, in real time, at the DailyFX Sentiment Page

In the coming week Australian Dollar markets might just be able to look past the US-China trade story, at least for a while, as they contemplate a packed period of local economic news. Whether this will be good news for the currency’s bulls, however, is a very open question.

Out on front of course will be Tuesday’s monetary policy decision from the Reserve Bank of Australia. Market positioning is at present quite emphatic that no move is coming, and the Official Cash Rate will remain at its record, 0.75% low once the central bank’s deliberations are over. However, the RBA itself conceded in the minutes of its last meeting that the case for an interest rate cut could be made then, an admission which knocked the Aussie earlier this month. Given that little has clearly changed for the better since, the chance of a cut on Tuesday must still be ‘live’ even given those market doubts.

Growth Figures May be Under a Cloud

Official Gross Domestic Product figures for the third quarter are due on Wednesday. The economy expanded at a modest 0.5% quarterly rate in the three months to June and may struggle to better that this time. Global trade, growth and consumption slowdowns are likely to make their mark, with particular reference to China, biggest customer of Australia’s titanic raw-material export machine.

Treasurer Josh Frydenberg talked darkly of significant global headwinds in Parliament on Thursday, which hardly inspires too much confidence in the data, and business investment has been pretty weak over the quarter.

There are some other potential Aussie movers coming up, from Chinese Purchasing Managers Index data, both official and private and domestic building approvals which have been under pressure.

Of course, those US-China trade war headlines are all-too-likely to set the pace in AUD/USD, and news-flow from that quarter is very difficult to predict. However, given that the RBA will almost certainly strike a dovish tone even if it doesn’t cut rates, and that GDP may struggle to impress, it’s a bearish call this week on the basis of what we can know. The pair’s deepening downtrend will likely stay with us

AUDUSD Price Chart

Australian Dollar Resources for Traders

Whether you’re new to trading or an old hand DailyFX has plenty of resources to help you. There’s our trading sentiment indicator which shows you live how IG clients are positioned right now. We also hold educational and analytical webinars and offer trading guides, with one specifically aimed at those new to foreign exchange markets. There’s also a Bitcoin guide. Be sure to make the most of them all. They were written by our seasoned trading experts and they’re all free.

--- Written by David Cottle, DailyFX Research

Follow David on Twitter@DavidCottleFX or use the Comments section below to get in touch!

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES