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Australian Dollar Outlook Grim Unless Global Market Mood Improves

Australian Dollar Outlook Grim Unless Global Market Mood Improves

2019-08-23 22:00:00
David Cottle, Analyst
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AUDUSD 2 Hour Price Chart

Fundamental Australian Dollar Forecast:

  • AUDUSD remains mired in a long downtrend
  • Domestic interest rate pricing remains bearish for the currency
  • Global risk appetite will be key this week

Find out what retail foreign exchange traders make of the Australian Dollar’s prospects right now, in real time, at the DailyFX Sentiment Page

As with most financial assets the Australian Dollar’s direction for at least the early part of next week is likely to be dictated by the script of this year’s Jackson Hole symposium of central bankers which will continue into the weekend.

Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe is among the last of its speakers this year, with the Aussie market obliged to wait until Sunday local time to hear what he may have to say. Still, the market as a whole seems to have pared at least to some extent the hopes for major concerted economic stimulus which buoyed up growth-sensitive assets like the Australian Dollar at their August lows.

Bearish Cues Have Not Changed

There would seem considerable scope for Jackson Hole to underwhelm but, even if it doesn’t, the currency looks very short of fundamental support. It remains well within its long-established downtrend channel against its US cousin, and the reasons it’s there have not materially changed.

One is the long trade dispute between China and the US in which Australia has arguably as much skin as any third country. The other is the Australian Dollar’s complete lack of domestic interest rate support. The RBA’s Official Cash Rate was cut to a new record low of 1% in July. Futures markets still fully price in two more quarter-point reductions by May 2020. This pricing has not altered despite ongoing labor market strength.

In short, it’s still quite difficult to be fundamentally bullish about the Australian Dollar, and the technical picture doesn’t look great either. In these rather binary days one can never discount a surge in risk appetite from whatever source. Such a thing would boost the Aussie, possibly considerably. However on the basis of what can be known, it’s another bearish call this week.

AUDUSD Price Chart

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--- Written by David Cottle, DailyFX Research

Follow David on Twitter@DavidCottleFX or use the Comments section below to get in touch!

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