News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • RT @IGSquawk: Merkel proposing one month lockdown. #DAX 11882 -1.50% https://t.co/7HMwsSX7M1
  • Wall Street Futures Update: Dow Jones (-1.68%) S&P 500 (-1.39%) Nasdaq 100 (-1.04%) [delayed] -BBG
  • A forex trader is strategic, disciplined and always switched on to the markets. Learn how to build an FX mindset here: https://t.co/ujEpfmO6C4 https://t.co/7CMyy8GhkR
  • 🇿🇦 Inflation Rate YoY (SEP) Actual: 3% Expected: 3.1% Previous: 3.1% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-10-28
  • Big risk-off shift early in European trade Haven-associated $USD and $JPY storming higher as the risk-sensitive $AUDUSD slips lower $EURUSD plunging lower as several European governments tighten restrictions amid a surge of #Covid19 infections https://t.co/Dc5JWfajUf
  • 🇿🇦 Inflation Rate YoY (SEP) Actual: 3.0% Expected: 3.1% Previous: 3.1% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-10-28
  • 🇫🇷 Consumer Confidence (OCT) Actual: 94 Expected: 93 Previous: 95 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-10-28
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 96.54%, while traders in NZD/USD are at opposite extremes with 71.21%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/cDHk860zOc
  • Heads Up:🇿🇦 Inflation Rate YoY (SEP) due at 08:00 GMT (15min) Expected: 3.1% Previous: 3.1% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-10-28
  • There are three major forex trading sessions which comprise the 24-hour market: the London session, the US session and the Asian session. Learn about the characteristics of each session here: https://t.co/UVvf51HiVP https://t.co/wjnYRpDqV8
Australian Dollar Bears Rule But May Not Turn Up Heat This Week

Australian Dollar Bears Rule But May Not Turn Up Heat This Week

2019-08-16 22:00:00
David Cottle, Analyst
Share:
AUDUSD Price Chart 2-Hour

Fundamental Australian Dollar Forecast: Neutral

  • AUDUSD remains close to 11-year lows
  • Two further interest rate cuts are now fully priced
  • Still, the market may lack cause to hammer the Aussie much harder in the week ahead

Find out what retail foreign exchange traders make of the Australian Dollar’s prospects right now, in real time, at the DailyFX Sentiment Page

The Australian Dollar remains close to this month’s eleven-year lows against its US cousin with overall global risk appetite continuing to drive sentiment towards this most pro-cyclical currency.

There were some bright spots for the Aussie last week. News that the US will delay imposing further tariffs on some Chinese goods gave global investor sentiment a lift, as did reports that Chinese negotiators will be heading for Washington for trade talks next month.

Strong Labor Numbers Haven’t Changed Interest Rate Forecasts

On the domestic front, it was clear that Australia’s extraordinary job-creation record remained unblemished. July’s official labor-market figures made a mockery of forecasters with 41,00 new jobs on the books rather than the 14,000 expected. There was a solid rise in full-time employment to boot.

However, it is notable that those strong labor numbers did absolutely nothing to market expectations that the record-low 1% Official Cash Rate will slide to just 0.5% by the start of next year. That was the futures curve’s position before the data, it remained so after.

That surprise half-point rate cut from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand this month has seen a solid re-pricing lower of OCR expectations that it is clearly going to take a lot to shift.

No such shift is likely this week, which is a quiet one for economic data. Central bank meeting minutes are due from both the RBA and the US Federal Reserve, but they are unlikely to alter the overwhelming view that rates are headed down in both countries. Australian Purchasing Managers Index figures are coming up too. They’ll attract plenty of investor attention but, again, won’t change the backdrop.

Keep an Eye on Jackson Hole

The Australian Dollar will be left as usual then to the ebb and flow of the risk trade. The risk trade in turn will depend on hard-to-predict headline news. There will also no doubt be plenty of focus on the Kansas City Fed’s annual Jackson Hole central bankers’ fest. That kicks off on Thursday with RBA Governor Philip Lowe saving his speech until Saturday.

In short then it’s hard to get bullish about an Australian Dollar so bereft of domestic monetary policy support, but the risk trade could yet lend it some support for as long as there are clear signs that Beijing and Washington intend to keep talking on trade. Therefore, it’s a neutral call this week.

AUDUSD Price Chart

Resources for Traders

Whether you’re new to trading or an old hand DailyFX has plenty of resources to help you. There’s our trading sentiment indicator which shows you live how IG clients are positioned right now. We also hold educational and analytical webinars and offer trading guides, with one specifically aimed at those new to foreign exchange markets. There’s also a Bitcoin guide. Be sure to make the most of them all. They were written by our seasoned trading experts and they’re all free.

--- Written by David Cottle, DailyFX Research

Follow David on Twitter@DavidCottleFX or use the Comments section below to get in touch!

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES