We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Mixed
Gold
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Bitcoin
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • What are the Market cycles? How are #currencies impacted in these cycles? How can these cycles impact #forextrading patterns? Find out here: https://t.co/ckr2fUOWqW https://t.co/gLJGj1FAOC
  • Central bank independence has several advantages and disadvantages. Find out what they are in-depth with @MartinSEssex here: https://t.co/wVFXbbTxf1 https://t.co/J0MMkVmCUu
  • Get your stock market basics right - what is the stock market and how does stock trading work? Find out here: https://t.co/JfAJLAtlsY https://t.co/ZfPUxHWeiG
  • The Mexican economy contracted for the first time in almost 10 years in 2019, but growth is expected to pick up in 2020 according to its finance minister. Get your $USDMXN market update from @HathornSabin here: https://t.co/gupJdU7WYT https://t.co/mMN8LFb5i5
  • EUR/USD has been weakening since the start of 2020 and the decline has accelerated this month. At some point there will be a correction but further losses are still likely as the year progresses. Get your $EURUSD market update from @MartinSEssex here: https://t.co/ieJUBNeAIf https://t.co/Dw4f7DQocg
  • The $AUD has risen in anticipation of a deal Washington and Beijing. But the Australia-China trade relationship has not suffered much and may even have been helped by China’s spat with the US. Get your market update from @DavidCottleFX here:https://t.co/An7h5X0Zcz https://t.co/Rn7mLbS1EF
  • How can traders avoid #FOMO in trading? Start by implementing a well-heeled plan taking only four hours per week. Get your insight from @JStanleyFX here: https://t.co/vwUShQPc27 #tradingstyle https://t.co/0Wn4xBL0AY
  • Do you know which type of stock is the right investment for you? Stock types help investors decide on specific #stocks to trade or assist with valuation methods either fundamentally or technically. Learn more about stock types here: https://t.co/yO3JalkqUU https://t.co/RoNdExHAdt
  • The status of the US #dollar as the safe-haven asset of choice remains untouched and any weakness in the greenback is likely to be short-lived. Get your $USD market update from @nickcawley1 here: https://t.co/LO2u38jpUT https://t.co/ctgCJSOeTH
  • #FTSE 100 testing key support as the index lacks a directional bias. #DAX reverses off channel top. Get your indices technical analysis from @JMcQueenFX here: https://t.co/IHF2dgMfg9 https://t.co/2fMTFlOeTR
Australian Dollar Bears Rule But May Not Turn Up Heat This Week

Australian Dollar Bears Rule But May Not Turn Up Heat This Week

2019-08-16 22:00:00
David Cottle, Analyst
Share:
AUDUSD Price Chart 2-Hour

Fundamental Australian Dollar Forecast: Neutral

  • AUDUSD remains close to 11-year lows
  • Two further interest rate cuts are now fully priced
  • Still, the market may lack cause to hammer the Aussie much harder in the week ahead

Find out what retail foreign exchange traders make of the Australian Dollar’s prospects right now, in real time, at the DailyFX Sentiment Page

The Australian Dollar remains close to this month’s eleven-year lows against its US cousin with overall global risk appetite continuing to drive sentiment towards this most pro-cyclical currency.

There were some bright spots for the Aussie last week. News that the US will delay imposing further tariffs on some Chinese goods gave global investor sentiment a lift, as did reports that Chinese negotiators will be heading for Washington for trade talks next month.

Strong Labor Numbers Haven’t Changed Interest Rate Forecasts

On the domestic front, it was clear that Australia’s extraordinary job-creation record remained unblemished. July’s official labor-market figures made a mockery of forecasters with 41,00 new jobs on the books rather than the 14,000 expected. There was a solid rise in full-time employment to boot.

However, it is notable that those strong labor numbers did absolutely nothing to market expectations that the record-low 1% Official Cash Rate will slide to just 0.5% by the start of next year. That was the futures curve’s position before the data, it remained so after.

That surprise half-point rate cut from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand this month has seen a solid re-pricing lower of OCR expectations that it is clearly going to take a lot to shift.

No such shift is likely this week, which is a quiet one for economic data. Central bank meeting minutes are due from both the RBA and the US Federal Reserve, but they are unlikely to alter the overwhelming view that rates are headed down in both countries. Australian Purchasing Managers Index figures are coming up too. They’ll attract plenty of investor attention but, again, won’t change the backdrop.

Keep an Eye on Jackson Hole

The Australian Dollar will be left as usual then to the ebb and flow of the risk trade. The risk trade in turn will depend on hard-to-predict headline news. There will also no doubt be plenty of focus on the Kansas City Fed’s annual Jackson Hole central bankers’ fest. That kicks off on Thursday with RBA Governor Philip Lowe saving his speech until Saturday.

In short then it’s hard to get bullish about an Australian Dollar so bereft of domestic monetary policy support, but the risk trade could yet lend it some support for as long as there are clear signs that Beijing and Washington intend to keep talking on trade. Therefore, it’s a neutral call this week.

AUDUSD Price Chart

Resources for Traders

Whether you’re new to trading or an old hand DailyFX has plenty of resources to help you. There’s our trading sentiment indicator which shows you live how IG clients are positioned right now. We also hold educational and analytical webinars and offer trading guides, with one specifically aimed at those new to foreign exchange markets. There’s also a Bitcoin guide. Be sure to make the most of them all. They were written by our seasoned trading experts and they’re all free.

--- Written by David Cottle, DailyFX Research

Follow David on Twitter@DavidCottleFX or use the Comments section below to get in touch!

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.