News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
More View more
Real Time News
  • $USD set up for this week - $EURUSD looks like it wants to break out. still holding w/in resistance zone 1885-1900, but higher-low support, quick return to zone. attractive for a bearish usd thesis next resistance 1950 and then the big zone from 1965-2000 https://t.co/uK80mIe8i2
  • Forex Update: As of 12:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇦🇺AUD: 0.25% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.15% 🇯🇵JPY: 0.14% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.03% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.01% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.10% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/l6UqEhgY1s
  • Weekly Strategy Webinar starting in 15mins on DailyFX! https://t.co/lxd5fZ5LG7
  • $USD starting the week with some balance. $DXY support 91.82-91.93 resistance 92.19-92.26 https://t.co/1W1wPyVgTc https://t.co/cW8d3l4iia
  • Heads Up:🇷🇺 Monetary Policy Report due at 12:00 GMT (15min) https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-08-02
  • Join @MBForex at 8:30 EST/12:30 GMT for your weekly scalping webinar. Register here: https://t.co/VGr4ZK3QZ9 https://t.co/Pd3SA45g6O
  • 🇮🇳 Balance of Trade Prel (JUL) Actual: $-11.23B Previous: $-9.37B https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-08-02
  • Heads Up:🇧🇷 BCB Focus Market Readout due at 11:30 GMT (15min) https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-08-02
  • 🇲🇽 Business Confidence (JUL) Actual: 51.8 Previous: 52 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-08-02
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 92.94%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 76.41%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/7m67VhGS8I
Reeling Australian Dollar Still Buffetted By US-China Trade War Storm

Reeling Australian Dollar Still Buffetted By US-China Trade War Storm

David Cottle, Analyst

Fundamental Australian Dollar Forecast: Bearish

  • AUD/USD is at three-year lows
  • Ten-year lows await close by
  • The coming week is unlikely to see a turnaround in the Aussie’s battered fortunes

Find out what retail foreign exchange traders make of the Australian Dollar’s prospects right now, in real time, at the DailyFX Sentiment Page

The Australian Dollar heads into a new week with little sign of respite for its battered bulls.

The currency flirts with three-year lows against its big US brother thanks to a combination of risk factors both foreign and domestic, with a ten-year trough in sight if they give way.

The apparently ever-increasing heat of US-China trade war has taken as much out of the Australian Dollar as just about any other currency. This is understandable as the Aussie is both a general pro-growth play and, sometimes, a proxy for Chinese economic activity.

More specifically and domestically, Australian ten-year bond yields sank to new record lows last week as risk-appetite wilted and markets moved to price in a cut to the record-low 1.50% Australian Official Cash Rate between now and August. At present rate futures assign a better than 60% chance that rates will go lower next month, but an August move is now fully priced.

Some worrying details in the last labor-market report made a cut far more likely as far as markets were concerned. Job creation continued to expand in April, but full-time hiring fell, and the unemployment rate ticked upward. Given the Reserve Bank of Australia’s heavy emphasis on labor’s fortunes when setting monetary policy, it’s hardly surprising that disappointment here should weigh heavily on the currency.

It’s very hard to confidently predict any change in the Australian Dollar’s fortunes this week. Investors will get a look at the minutes of the last RBA conclave, and they’ll also hear from Governor Philip Lowe. Both are coming up on Tuesday. Neither is obviously likely to help the currency much.

Thursday will bring Purchasing Managers Index figures but, again, it seems implausible that these can turn sentiment around.

What might of course is some general revival in risk appetite linked to the trade story but that, as ever, is impossible to foresee. Based on what can be known, it’s got to be another bearish call for AUD/USD this week.

AUD

Resources for Traders

Whether you’re new to trading or an old hand DailyFX has plenty of resources to help you. There’s our trading sentiment indicator which shows you live how IG clients are positioned right now. We also hold educational and analytical webinars and offer trading guides, with one specifically aimed at those new to foreign exchange markets. There’s also a Bitcoin guide. Be sure to make the most of them all. They were written by our seasoned trading experts and they’re all free.

--- Written by David Cottle, DailyFX Research

Follow David on Twitter@DavidCottleFX or use the Comments section below to get in touch!

Looking for a technical perspective on AUD? Check out the Weekly AUD Technical Forecast

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES