We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Bullish
Gold
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Bitcoin
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • Hello there, traders! Themes for this week's webinar: - US-China #tradewar - #HongKongProstests: Carrie Lam's visit to Beijing - #UKElections2019 recap + outlook - Government shutdown in 2020? - Update on #RCEP - CRUCIAL rate decision this week⬇️ https://www.dailyfx.com/webinars/146770987
  • With increasing volatility in weather patterns, how might storms, hurricanes, and floods rattle the supply chain for petroleum-based products and impact crude oil prices? Get your market update from @ZabelinDimitri here:https://t.co/O4dgBl47fq https://t.co/eMb7iCfdqS
  • Join analyst @DavidJSong at 5:30 PM ET/10:30 PM GMT for your weekly update on key news trading events. Register here: https://t.co/gBlrRpCc55 https://t.co/1rVzPr6gx4
  • See the DailyFX Fundamental and Technical forecasts for the week ahead on the major currencies, indices and commodities here: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/forecast/weekly/title/2019/12/15/Dow-Pound-and-Aussie-Dollar-Test-Post-Trade-War-Election-Breakouts.html
  • The US-China agreement brings this scene from camp cinema history to mind: https://t.co/WsfoGMZbw1 via @GIPHY https://t.co/h045efj8Em
  • What is the ascending triangle and how can you trade it? Find out here: https://t.co/SyL29jQflv https://t.co/F8415DaNGE
  • The politics of the US and UK may be starkly divided but their grip on the vast, $6.6 trillion global foreign exchange trade seems as tight as ever. Get your market update from @DavidCottleFX here:https://t.co/xTKHOvrIqg https://t.co/z7ogzy00dy
  • What are the Market cycles? How are #currencies impacted in these cycles? How can these cycles impact #forextrading patterns? Find out here: https://t.co/ckr2fUOWqW https://t.co/g7iT8bpi7f
  • What are a few of the common trading mistakes made by traders? Find out from @WVenketas here: https://t.co/d3OFc4yGao #tradingstyle https://t.co/wQ1MAkOb0n
  • The UK population voted the Conservative government back in with a strong majority, giving PM Johnson the backing to push Brexit through. And Sterling (GBP) likes it. Get you $GBPUSD market update from @nickcawley1 here: https://t.co/tjCHWDxoWm https://t.co/Z7Vaadxy5r
Australian Dollar Could Ride US-China Trade Hopes Higher Again

Australian Dollar Could Ride US-China Trade Hopes Higher Again

2019-04-05 22:00:00
David Cottle, Analyst
Share:
AUDUSD

Fundamental Australian Dollar Forecast: Bullish

  • The Australian Dollar’s long fall against its US cousin has halted somewhat
  • Trade-deal hopes have underpinned it, an actual deal will probably lift it considerably
  • The Aussie’s longer-term prospects are much cloudier, however

Find out what retail foreign exchange traders make of the Australian Dollar’s prospects right now, in real time, at the DailyFX Sentiment Page

The Australian Dollar faces a week of scant domestic economic clues but is in any case likely to spend the next few sessions in thrall rather to global risk appetite.

Despite plentiful weak economic numbers from around the world of late, that appetite has been buoyed by persistent hopes that China and the US will come to a durable trade settlement, possibly quite soon. US President Donald Trump fueled those hopes last Thursday. Then he suggested that a ‘monumental’ agreement could be announced as soon as some time in the next four weeks, even as he acknowledged that differences remain between the two countries.

Given the feebleness of much economic data, it will remain to be seen whether any pact can truly be the magic cure for the world economy that many investors seem so sure it will be. But, for now, any signs that talks are on track are likely to buoy growth-linked assets such as the Australian Dollar.

AUD/USD remains well within the long downtrend which has endured since the start of 2018, but a combination of trade hopes and a rethink about the likely pace of US interest rate rises has seen it effectively rangebound for this year.

It’s worth noting that the Aussie still utterly lacks interest rate support of its own, and that futures markets are now moving to price-in not just one but nearly two quarter-point cuts to the 1.50% Official Cash Rate over the next eighteen months.

With that in mind the currency still doesn’t look like one to get too excited about over the medium or long term, but it may still reap the benefit of trade’s feelgood factor in the sessions ahead.

Investors will however get domestic consumer confidence data to chew over this week, while Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Guy Debelle will speak on the State of the Economy in Adelaide on Wednesday. While either event could see the Aussie move, neither is likely to give it the impetus to escape the broader gravity of overall risk appetite.

So, it’s a cautiously bullish call this week.

Looking for a technical perspective on the AUD Dollar? Check out the Weekly AUD Technical Forecast.

audusd

Resources for Traders

Whether you’re new to trading or an old hand DailyFX has plenty of resources to help you. There’s our trading sentiment indicator which shows you live how IG clients are positioned right now. We also hold educational and analytical webinars and offer trading guides, with one specifically aimed at those new to foreign exchange markets. There’s also a Bitcoin guide. Be sure to make the most of them all. They were written by our seasoned trading experts and they’re all free.

--- Written by David Cottle, DailyFX Research

Follow David on Twitter@DavidCottleFX or use the Comments section below to get in touch!

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.