We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Bitcoin
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • Join @JStanleyFX 's #webinar at 1:00 PM ET/6:00 PM GMT for his weekly update on trading price action. Register here: https://t.co/yu1uNFb2tm https://t.co/d1bnmoDZvR
  • Indices Update: As of 17:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: France 40: 0.10% Germany 30: 0.06% US 500: 0.03% Wall Street: -0.04% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/il7RSNv4zV
  • German Bund Yields Update: 2-Year: -0.653% 3-Year: -0.666% 5-Year: -0.564% 7-Year: -0.493% 10-Year: -0.299% 30-Year: 0.224%
  • #Euro Price Outlook: $EURUSD Battle Lines Drawn ahead of #FOMC - https://t.co/cy7UwdBgUB https://t.co/K824jkyyEB
  • $USDCHF sets a fresh seven week low amid a softening US dollar https://t.co/miSi3Wba87
  • Kudlow: - Next G7 to focus on solving global economic slowdown
  • Kudlow: - US is doing well amid a global slowdown - Central banks should worry more about providing ample liquidity than controlling rates
  • Eyes on the final YouGov MRP Poll at 2200GMT YouGov Nov 27th - Con: 359 - Labour: 211 - SNP: 43 - Lib Dems: 13 Datapraxis Dec 7th - Con: 344 - Labour: 221 - SNP: 47 - Lib Dems: 12 Bookmaker: Sporting Index - Con: 340-346 - Labour: 215-221 - SNP: 43-45 - Lib Dems: 17-21
  • Update on #Cryptocurrencies (24H Change) #BITCOIN -2.88% #BITCOINCASH -2.44% #ETHEREUM -2.17% #RIPPLE -2.24% #LITECOIN -1.58%
  • RT @chriscurtis94: The next voting intention you will see from @YouGov will be with our MRP at 10PM. The computer is still calculating th…
Australian Dollar Market May Be Calmer, But Watch Trade Headlines

Australian Dollar Market May Be Calmer, But Watch Trade Headlines

2019-02-22 22:00:00
David Cottle, Analyst
Share:
AUD Chart

Fundamental Australian Dollar Forecast: Neutral

  • The Australian Dollar has had another torrid week
  • Domestic data were strong but overall risk appetite still drives
  • The coming sessions look likely to be calmer, but don’t bet too much on that

Find out what retail foreign exchange traders make of the Australian Dollar’s prospects right now, in real time, at the DailyFX Sentiment Page

Looking for a technical perspective on the AUD? Check out the Weekly AUD Technical Forecast.

The Australian Dollar endured another roller-coaster ride last week with domestic economic data and international events all throwing it around. Judging by the calendar alone, the coming sessions may be calmer. However, left-field-event potential remains high.

Let’s take a look at how we got here.

Long revving nicely, the Australian labor market was revealed last week to have selected another gear in January. Fully 64, 500 full-time jobs were created over the month, the brightest spot in a pretty glowing overall report.

However, all the gains made by AUD/USD on that release were erased and then some by reports suggesting that China would ban Australian coal imports at the key dock site of Dalian. This looked to be a clear sign of deteriorating trade relations between Australia and its major export customer. However, China later appeared to be denying that any such ban was contemplated, saying instead that it was merely increasing quality checks on important coal from all destinations.

Still, the Australian Dollar also remained broadly pressured by developments from earlier in the month, notably the RBA’s admission that all-time low interest rates could yet fall further.

Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe last week reiterated that the risk to interest rates ahead was broadly balanced in his view. Futures markets still beg to differ though. They resolutely price in a reduction in the record-low, 1.50% Official Cash Rate by the end of the year.

This week offers a very modest Australian economic data calendar which will probably leave trade headlines between Beijing and Washington to drive the currency. The Aussie acts as a global growth proxy in any case, and a trade deal would be the biggest obvious growth fillip on offer at present. More specifically Australia has huge interest in the outcome of these talks given its close ties to both the US and China.

However, there are at least two other possible sources of Aussie Dollar movement coming up. US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will deliver semi-annual testimony to the House of Representatives on Wednesday. If he evinces more caution on the interest-rate path ahead, then the US Dollar could slip against many rivals, the Aussie included.

On the other hand, Chinese Purchasing Managers Index data are also due. If they show ongoing weakness, especially in manufacturing, then AUD/USD bears are likely to remain in charge.

It’s a neutral call this week, albeit with half an eye on further downside.

AUD/USD

Resources for Traders

Whether you’re new to trading or an old hand DailyFX has plenty of resources to help you. There’s our trading sentiment indicator which shows you live how IG clients are positioned right now. We also hold educational and analytical webinars and offer trading guides, with one specifically aimed at those new to foreign exchange markets. There’s also a Bitcoin guide. Be sure to make the most of them all. They were written by our seasoned trading experts and they’re all free.

--- Written by David Cottle, DailyFX Research

Follow David on Twitter@DavidCottleFX or use the Comments section below to get in touch!

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.