0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Breaking news

Australia added 114.7k jobs in July, beating 30.0k estimate. Unemployment rate fell to 7.5%, outperforming the 7.8% estimate

Real Time News
  • A currency carry trade involves borrowing a low-yielding currency in order to buy a higher yielding currency in an attempt to profit from the interest rate differential. Find out if the carry trade suits your trading style here:https://t.co/sR7HqpK8BI https://t.co/PSyPSFwSQq
  • - #Crudeoil prices could get a tailwind from newly growing US-#Iran political risks - Washington is seeking to extend an arms embargo beyond its October deadline - #Geopolitical tensions are not unfamiliar to oil traders, but is this time different? https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/article/special_report/2020/08/13/Crude-Oil-Prices-Brace-for-Impact-with-US-Iran-Tensions-Brewing.html
  • Why financial market traders must monitor both monetary and fiscal policy? Find out from @MartinSEssex here:https://t.co/Fkzk88Y5gm https://t.co/RD5jfhST15
  • If you missed today's live coverage of the Australian jobs reports where I discussed recent price action and the trajectory of $AUDUSD, $AUDJPY and $AUDNZD, check out the recording on YouTube here - https://t.co/DFtslv9p9J
  • Commodities Update: As of 02:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 1.36% Gold: 1.08% Oil - US Crude: -0.07% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/D73pACW7Wo
  • Forex Update: As of 02:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇪🇺EUR: 0.20% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.19% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.14% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.07% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.04% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.08% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/iWfve22mC7
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 95.74%, while traders in US 500 are at opposite extremes with 78.31%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/pr60jYN4lU
  • Are we witnessing a positive month for the FTSE as bulls take control? Find out here: https://t.co/j89IW0WMY7 https://t.co/JECJAfuFJW
  • #AUDUSD edged slightly higher after better-than-expected jobs report https://t.co/1sG8q6hGcc
  • 🇦🇺 Full Time Employment Chg (JUL) Actual: 43.5K Previous: -38.1K https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-08-13
Australian Dollar Can Hang On Again, But Downward Bias Remains

Australian Dollar Can Hang On Again, But Downward Bias Remains

2018-11-17 05:00:00
David Cottle, Analyst
Share:
AUD/USD

Fundamental Australian Dollar Forecast: Neutral

  • The Australian Dollar has held up quite well this month
  • Overall risk appetite will probably decide its fate
  • However this week’s local economic events may be supportive

Find out what retail foreign exchange traders make of the Australian Dollar’s prospects right now, in real time, at the DailyFX Sentiment Page

The Australian Dollar continues to hang tough against its US cousin, holding still above the long downtrend line that had held sway for much of this year, until November 1 indeed.

AUD/USD may manage to stay around current levels in the week ahead, assuming the overall risk appetite that tends to favor the Aussie holds firm. Investors will not see a huge amount of Australian data to add to their current picture of an economy performing rather well overall. They will however get the minutes from the last Reserve Bank of Australia monetary policy meeting, which took place on November 6.

The Official Cash Rate was left on hold at its record, 1.50% low back then. This surprised no one given inflation’s enduring weakness. It also meant that 1.50% tenure as the longest unchanged interest rate in Australian history stretched into a 28th month. It will probably stretch a lot longer too. Rate futures markets do not price in any change for all of next year.

However, they are now starting to look a bit more convinced about a rise by the start of 2020, and this is the key point.

Investors do still seem reasonably certain that, when the next move comes, it will be an increase, and that suspicion offers AUD/USD some support. It is pretty marginal support, to be sure. One quarter-point rate rise more than a year hence is not after all the stuff of which durable currency rallies are made. They’re especially not so when the US Federal Reserve is already a long way down the rate-hiking path and determined to go still further if it can.

But the conviction that the RBA will not completely miss the hiking cycle endures. And that’s something.

If the central bank’s minutes remind investors that ‘low interest rates cannot be around forever,’ or some similar form of words, and Thursday’s Purchasing Managers Index numbers hold up, then the Aussie can probably keep up too.

However the interest rate environment still does not favor it, and there are signs of slowing in many of its key trade partners, notably China.

The Australian Dollar need not slide against the US version this week, but its bias probably remains toward more falls.

AUD/USD DAILY CHART

--- Written by David Cottle, DailyFX Research

Follow David on Twitter@DavidCottleFX or use the Comments section below to get in touch!

Other Weekly Fundamental Forecast:

Oil Forecast – Crude Oil at Risk as OPEC Supply Cut Bets Undermined by Russia, US

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.