We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bullish
Gold
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Bitcoin
Bearish
More View more
Notice

DailyFX PLUS Content Now Available Freely to all DailyFX Users

Real Time News
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 98.01%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 77.42%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/iZMyPUwaV8
  • Commodities Update: As of 10:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 0.00% Gold: -0.03% Oil - US Crude: -1.68% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/GHL0wC5uWO
  • Trader tip: Are you chasing the market? Avoid #FOMOintrading with this little advice from @MBforex. https://t.co/lN4zI6WN9w
  • Forex Update: As of 10:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇪🇺EUR: 0.13% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.05% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.14% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.22% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.26% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.45% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/qhjqNzP2Z3
  • Coming up at the bottom of the hour. Please join me if you can. I'll be looking at the charts of the major assets and at the sentiment data on the calendar this week https://t.co/1fEkIho31k
  • ECB's Villeroy states that if current oil shock lasts, this could increase inflation and hamper growth
  • Indices Update: As of 10:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: US 500: -0.09% Wall Street: -0.14% France 40: -0.29% Germany 30: -0.44% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/3lOc7SMTTV
  • Today, I was hosted by @skynewsarabia to discuss, expected Fed rate decision , ECB Monetary Policy and other central bank decisions. Addiationally, we talked about Brexit, GBP price and more.Details in the link below: https://t.co/lv5KDOZNwX #FED, #ECB, #GBP, #Brexit ,#BOJ, #SNB https://t.co/Kqad9yViex
  • Join @MartinSEssex 's #webinar at 6:30 AM ET/10:30 AM GMT to learn more about trading #sentiment Register here: https://t.co/q4MoqGaXQZ https://t.co/1VgrnV0xov
  • 🇪🇺 EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (YoY) (AUG F), Actual: N/A Expected: 1.0% Previous: 1.0% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2019-09-18
Australian Dollar Still Short of Reasons To Buy Despite New PM

Australian Dollar Still Short of Reasons To Buy Despite New PM

2018-08-24 16:05:00
David Cottle, Analyst
Share:

AUD/USD

Fundamental Australian Dollar Forecast: Bearish

Australian Dollar Talking Points:

  • The Australian Dollar was already choking on a toxic fundamental cocktail
  • Last week added a dash of political turmoil which has abated somewhat with the appointment of a new Prime Minister
  • Still it’s hard to see the mixture looking any more appetizing in the short term.

Find out what retail foreign exchange traders make of the Australian Dollar’s prospects right now, in real time, at the DailyFX Sentiment Page

The Australian Dollar got a little boost at the end of the week as its home country got a new Prime Minister, but AUD/USD remains severely battered and, indeed, at lows not seen since the start of 2016.

Former Treasurer Scott Morrison has replaced Malcom Turnbull as leader of the Liberal Party which governs in coalition. Turnbull lost the confidence of his party so Morrison becomes Australia’s sixth Prime Minister since 2007.

Still, it’s notable that the rise in AUD/USD seen since doesn’t come close to the falls seen as the prospect of Turnbull’s ouster loomed larger last week. Australia’s political system is not exactly what you’d call dysfunctional but, all the same, the turnover rate at the top is worrying for markets. And it’s not as if they were free of Australian worries even without politics

Indeed the Australian Dollar is starting to look like a currency which just can’t catch a break.

It has been sliding all year against its big American brother as widening interest rate differentials in the US Dollar’s favor take their toll on a market where the Aussie had the upper hand for so long. Then came tariff wars and worries about Chinese growth levels, all grist to the Aussie-bearish mill given Australia’s huge raw material export links with China.

Add to all this stubbornly low domestic inflation and heavily indebted Australian consumers and it is little wonder that rate-futures markets do not see record-low interest rates going anywhere.

However, then things got worse. Last week saw a surprisingly dovish set of minutes from the last Reserve Bank of Australia monetary policy meeting. Morrison’s arrival as PM did only a little to row AUD/USD back upward.

The coming week won’t bring much in the way of economic data to move the gloomy conversation around the Australian Dollar on.

Signs of political settlement may help, but markets will want to see how enduring it might be. Mr. Morrison seems to have silenced rumors of an election in October, but markets will want to know more about his priorities.

Of course, without further bad news, investors will no doubt decide at some point that the Australian Dollar has been kicked hard enough. But they seem unlikely to reach that conclusion this week, so it’s another bearish call.

Australian Dollar Still Short of Reasons To Buy Despite New PM

Resources for Traders

Whether you’re new to trading or an old hand DailyFX has plenty of resources to help you. There’s our trading sentiment indicator which shows you live how IG clients are positioned right now. We also hold educational and analytical webinars and offer trading guides, with one specifically aimed at those new to foreign exchange markets. There’s also a Bitcoin guide. Be sure to make the most of them all. They were written by our seasoned trading experts and they’re all free.

--- Written by David Cottle, DailyFX Research

Follow David on Twitter@DavidCottleFX or use the Comments section below to get in touch!

provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.