We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
More View more
Real Time News
  • Why do you require consistency in trading and why does it matter? Find out: https://t.co/f4y1FOOZnM #tradingstyle https://t.co/x5HgYopWc5
  • The USD may rise if the FOMC re-affirms its data-dependent approach and cools 2020 rate cut bets. US retail sales and CPI data may also give the Fed impetus to hold rates. Get your $USD market update from @ZabelinDimitri here: https://t.co/XnDITaDOox https://t.co/A480uVMqF2
  • What tools does the ECB have left to stimulate the Eurozone? Where is the #Euro heading? Find out from Chief Eurozone Economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics Claus Vistesen only on Trading Global Markets Decoded #podcast hosted by @MartinSEssex here:https://t.co/Twr44cZ1GB https://t.co/DXlDH5Cp9e
  • The price of oil extends the advance from the October low as #OPEC and its allies pledge to take additional steps to balance the energy market. Get your crude #oil market update from @DavidJSong here: https://t.co/llGq8yPFH4 #OOTT https://t.co/1OCVOIrK98
  • Gold closed lower after paring early-week gains post-NFP on Friday. But will price finally break support? These are levels that matter on the XAU/USD weekly chart. Get your gold technical analysis from @MBForex here: https://t.co/ovGheRg4MQ https://t.co/ZEQSYktj0w
  • What is your #tradingstyle? Take the quiz and let us know: https://t.co/LPBOcS0Vtd https://t.co/l6FvtcADEH
  • Asia’s vast and growing importance to the world economy is not yet matched by the presence of a currency trading center to rival the established order. Get your update on market drivers in Asia from @DavidCottleFX here: https://t.co/E2hqoRdO7q https://t.co/dnrAMFK4U2
  • Geopolitical developments send #oil prices soaring or falling. Get your market update from @MartinSEssex here:https://t.co/XVXLyG8vjq #OOTT https://t.co/RMk5Eb5fLU
  • Negative yielding government bonds – What are they telling us? Find out from @nickcawley1 here: https://t.co/F6JuhmrvPT https://t.co/KdpSjQSJ8F
  • #Euro area stocks may be preparing to break the four-month uptrend built around hopes for a US-China trade deal and an orderly #Brexit outcome. Get your market update from @IlyaSpivak here: https://t.co/ujlCJiXLvh https://t.co/INdFtsrTTF
AUD May Consolidate Again on RBA, RBNZ, US CPI and Trade War Risk

AUD May Consolidate Again on RBA, RBNZ, US CPI and Trade War Risk

2018-08-03 19:55:00
Daniel Dubrovsky, Analyst
AUD May Consolidate Again on RBA, RBNZ, US CPI and Trade War Risk

Australian Dollar Fundamental Forecast: Neutral

AUD/USD Talking Points – RBA, RBNZ, US CPI, Trade Wars

  • The Australian Dollar remains range bound and may continue to oscillate for an 8th week
  • Next week’s RBNZ rate announcement could offer more volatility for AUD than the RBA
  • US CPI data carries mixed signals for USD and thus AUD, trade war risk still prevalent

The Australian Dollar was heading towards a weaker week as a relatively less hawkish Bank of England rate decision boosted the US Dollar and AUD/USD fell as expected. It was looking like perhaps the Aussie could break out of its extraordinary consolidation since mid-June to the downside. Alas, Friday’s performance pared Thursday’s losses and now its oscillation enters its eight week.

Next week’s RBA monetary policy announcement seems unlikely to offer the Australian Dollar a meaningful reaction. At the moment, overnight index swaps aren’t pricing in a better-than-even chance (78.1%) of a rate hike until at least August 2019. Since the last rate decision, Australia saw solid jobs data but a mixed inflation report. This could pave the way for a status quo policy release. Perhaps Governor Philip Lowe’s speech afterwards on Wednesday could offer more.

What may even send the Australian Dollar actually higher lies across the Tasman Sea. Next week also has an RBNZ monetary policy announcement. A slightly more cautious central bank could send the New Zealand Dollar (a close alternative to AUD) lower. This is because since the last RBNZ rate announcement, New Zealand experienced poor inflation and employment data for the second quarter. Keep in mind that unlike the RBA, this central bank sees its next rate move as perhaps either a hike or a cut.

Lately, US economic news flow has been underperforming relative to economists’ expectations. The most recent example was last week’s mixed jobs report. There, wage growth remained unchanged at 2.7%. With headline inflation now running at 2.9%, it warns that real income gains have turned negative. Next week offers July’s US inflation data which could disappoint. On one hand, a downtick in CPI could hurt the US Dollar. On the other, negative real hourly earnings underpins the case for Fed rate hikes.

Finally, the risk of trade war escalation between the US and China overshadows equities and thus the sentiment-linked Australian Dollar. Last Friday, the world’s second largest economy said it would levy differentiated tariffs on about $60b US goods as soon as the latter implements measures. Meanwhile, Donald Trump’s Chief Economic Adviser Larry Kudlow said that they have more ammunition than China in a trade fight, hinting at potentially more provocation down the road.

Taking into account this information, the Australian Dollar fundamental forecast will change from bearish to neutral for the coming week. There may be a chance that AUD/USD remains range bound.

We just released our 3Q forecasts for equities and the US Dollar in the DailyFX Trading Guides page

Australian Dollar Trading Resources:

--- Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Junior Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.


News & Analysis at your fingertips.