We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
More View more
Real Time News
  • LIVE IN 30 MIN: Join Currency Analyst @ZabelinDimitri as he previews the upcoming week’s main political themes and discusses their impact on the financial markets. Register here: https://www.dailyfx.com/webinars/146770987?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=DFXGeneric&utm_campaign=twr
  • RT @scheplick: This week, there were massive protests in: Hong Kong Chile Lebanon Ecuador Haiti Indonesia Spain Libya Iraq France Englan…
  • RT @next_china: China Banks Unexpectedly Keep Loan Prime Rate Steady in October https://t.co/gEsDu1ADAH
  • Commodities Update: As of 02:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 0.03% Gold: 0.00% Oil - US Crude: -0.06% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/rwBMrPXH58
  • #BRL, #COP and the #CLP are expected to be the most active Latin American currencies vs USD with 1-week implied volatilities at 13.40, 10.47 and 9.34 respectively
  • Forex Update: As of 02:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇳🇿NZD: 0.21% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.06% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.05% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.11% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.12% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.39% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/cJ8uz0usDy
  • How will #Brexit affect the US? Economist @julianHjessop gives his take, only on Global Markets Decoded #podcast. Missed the episode? Get your read here: https://t.co/9SFO9wikRI https://t.co/zQ4Bijk6Up
  • The $USD might be in the process of reversing its two-year uptrend, but technical positioning cautions eager sellers against over-committing. Get your $DXY market update from @IlyaSpivak here: https://t.co/RrifbHfNut https://t.co/VMPintsxrU
  • LIVE NOW: Join Senior Strategist @IlyaSpivak as he discusses the outlook for the financial markets in the week ahead! Register here: https://www.dailyfx.com/webinars/889679267?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=DFXGeneric&utm_campaign=twr
  • New Zealand’s Credit Card Spending (YoY) (SEP) Actual: 4.8% Est: N/A Previous: 6.0% #NZD
Australian Dollar To Benefit From Hopes That Worst Is Over

Australian Dollar To Benefit From Hopes That Worst Is Over

2018-07-05 18:50:00
David Cottle, Analyst

Fundamental Australian Dollar Forecast: Neutral

  • AUD/USD has been falling all year
  • It now seems to have settled into a broad range
  • This range is likely to hold on, barring massive data shocks

Find out what retail foreign exchange traders make of the Australian Dollar’s prospects right now, in real time, at the DailyFX Sentiment Page

The Australian Dollar has suffered grievously against the US Dollar for most of this year, but may be at last finding a floor.

This does not mean that AUD/USD will sink no lower, but it may just mean that the worst of its hammering is now behind it. Of course, that hammering was dealt largely by the huge gulf in interest-rate expectations between Australia and the United States. The Federal Reserve is already well into its withdrawal of post-crisis monetary accommodation and intent on much more. Of course, it provided far more of this than the Reserve Bank of Australia anyway, but the RBA’s Official Cash Rate remains stuck at its 1.5% record low and isn’t predicted to rise at all until well into next year.

Those interest-rate differentials still yawn in the greenback’s favor then.

But, AUD/USD has now fallen from over 80 US cents to around 73. So most of that gulf is now in the price. In any case, AUD/USD has settled into a broad trading range since mid-June, between 0.7311 and 0.7443. The bears seem sated, at least for the moment.

The coming week is unlikely to see them back for more. It’s not short of economic clues. Investors will know more about Australian business and consumer confidence by the time we hit Friday. They’ll also get a look at how China is weathering all those seemingly endless trade-spat headlines. The Australian Dollar can sometimes act as the markets’ favorite liquid China proxy thanks to Australia’s vast raw-material export machine, and may well do so when Chinese trade numbers are released.

Of course, even if all those releases impress, the US economic numbers might come in strongly too, and take some wind out of Aussie bulls.

But they seem unlikely to increase already bullish Fed rate expectations by much. So on the basis that the AUD/USD range will probably endure, it’s a neutral call this week.

Australian Dollar To Benefit From Hopes That Worst Is Over

Resources for Traders

Whether you’re new to trading or an old hand DailyFX has plenty of resources to help you. There’s our trading sentiment indicator which shows you live how IG clients are positioned right now. We also hold educational and analytical webinars and offer trading guides, with one specifically aimed at those new to foreign exchange markets. There’s also a Bitcoin guide. Be sure to make the most of them all. They were written by our seasoned trading experts and they’re all free.

--- Written by David Cottle, DailyFX Research

Follow David on Twitter@DavidCottleFX or use the Comments section below to get in touch!

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.


News & Analysis at your fingertips.