We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Mixed
Gold
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Bitcoin
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • Forex Update: As of 15:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇳🇿NZD: 0.35% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.22% 🇯🇵JPY: 0.16% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.01% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.10% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.12% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/eSBVAvI7mB
  • Indices Update: As of 15:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Germany 30: 0.31% US 500: -0.06% France 40: -0.10% Wall Street: -0.26% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/YY36jf96CD
  • For #gold to make another attempt at $1,500/oz. and above, the spot price will need to take out two levels of resistance. Get your $XAUUSD technical analysis from @nickcawley1 here: https://t.co/o9TKzPUrwK $GLD https://t.co/myzVurNtBB
  • Fed's Williams: - Operating framework is currently very efficient and effective - No need for a reconsideration on operating framework for Ample-reserves $SPX $DXY
  • The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model forecast for Q4 rises to 0.42%, previously at 0.31% $DXY $SPX
  • UK Election Poll (Kantar) - Conservatives 45% (+8) - Labour 27% (unch) - Lib Dems 16% (-1) - Brexit Party 2% (-7)
  • En español: La tendencia del oro carece de claridad por la falta de avances en la guerra arancelaria y las dudas sobre el posible desenlace del conflicto comercial entre Estados Unidos y China #trading #XAUUSD $XAUUSD $gold https://t.co/WuxBJAciue https://t.co/Qq8yyc8Nbh
  • Chair of House Committee on Ways and Means Neal: - USMCA could be completed by Christmas if backed by Trump $DXY $CAD $MXN
  • Chair of House Committee on Ways and Means Neal: - Differences on USMCA are pretty small - Democrats no worried about handing Trump a victory #trade $DXY $MXN $CAD
  • RT @JohnRentoul: New Kantar poll, 14-18 Nov: 18-pt Tory lead Con 45% +8 Labour 27% ±0 Lib Dem 16% -1 Green 3% ±0 Brexit Party 2% -7 (Chan…
Australian Dollar To Benefit From Hopes That Worst Is Over

Australian Dollar To Benefit From Hopes That Worst Is Over

2018-07-05 18:50:00
David Cottle, Analyst
Share:

Fundamental Australian Dollar Forecast: Neutral

  • AUD/USD has been falling all year
  • It now seems to have settled into a broad range
  • This range is likely to hold on, barring massive data shocks

Find out what retail foreign exchange traders make of the Australian Dollar’s prospects right now, in real time, at the DailyFX Sentiment Page

The Australian Dollar has suffered grievously against the US Dollar for most of this year, but may be at last finding a floor.

This does not mean that AUD/USD will sink no lower, but it may just mean that the worst of its hammering is now behind it. Of course, that hammering was dealt largely by the huge gulf in interest-rate expectations between Australia and the United States. The Federal Reserve is already well into its withdrawal of post-crisis monetary accommodation and intent on much more. Of course, it provided far more of this than the Reserve Bank of Australia anyway, but the RBA’s Official Cash Rate remains stuck at its 1.5% record low and isn’t predicted to rise at all until well into next year.

Those interest-rate differentials still yawn in the greenback’s favor then.

But, AUD/USD has now fallen from over 80 US cents to around 73. So most of that gulf is now in the price. In any case, AUD/USD has settled into a broad trading range since mid-June, between 0.7311 and 0.7443. The bears seem sated, at least for the moment.

The coming week is unlikely to see them back for more. It’s not short of economic clues. Investors will know more about Australian business and consumer confidence by the time we hit Friday. They’ll also get a look at how China is weathering all those seemingly endless trade-spat headlines. The Australian Dollar can sometimes act as the markets’ favorite liquid China proxy thanks to Australia’s vast raw-material export machine, and may well do so when Chinese trade numbers are released.

Of course, even if all those releases impress, the US economic numbers might come in strongly too, and take some wind out of Aussie bulls.

But they seem unlikely to increase already bullish Fed rate expectations by much. So on the basis that the AUD/USD range will probably endure, it’s a neutral call this week.

Australian Dollar To Benefit From Hopes That Worst Is Over

Resources for Traders

Whether you’re new to trading or an old hand DailyFX has plenty of resources to help you. There’s our trading sentiment indicator which shows you live how IG clients are positioned right now. We also hold educational and analytical webinars and offer trading guides, with one specifically aimed at those new to foreign exchange markets. There’s also a Bitcoin guide. Be sure to make the most of them all. They were written by our seasoned trading experts and they’re all free.

--- Written by David Cottle, DailyFX Research

Follow David on Twitter@DavidCottleFX or use the Comments section below to get in touch!

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.