News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
More View more
Real Time News
  • The Hang Seng Index (HSI) advanced 3.3% as investors shrugged off regulatory concerns. Will this rebound last? - Tencent (+8.8%) - Alibaba (+6.6%) - Meituan (+8.9%) - Hang Seng Tech Index (7.33%) https://t.co/dmTEa3J4we
  • Trading bias allows traders to make informative decisions when dealing in the market. This relates to both novice and experienced traders alike. Start learning how you may be able to make more informed decisions here: https://t.co/rz7fqhRoMG https://t.co/X6Uvr2dsj0
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 94.19%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 69.19%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/EqA6PJH4Yt
  • Emotions are often a key driving force behind FOMO. If left unchecked, they can lead traders to neglect trading plans and exceed comfortable levels of risk. Read on and get your emotions in check here: https://t.co/eILWbFgHRE https://t.co/XCHxCSz9XZ
  • Forex Update: As of 04:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇨🇦CAD: 0.29% 🇳🇿NZD: 0.22% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.18% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.11% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.10% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.03% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/5W5WVMPcrH
  • Indices Update: As of 04:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Wall Street: 0.00% FTSE 100: -0.10% US 500: -0.13% France 40: -0.15% Germany 30: -0.28% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/p1qqTNx2Mz
  • RT @KyleR_IG: A history of US fiscal and monetary stimulus and the US 10 year yield: more stimulus, higher rates. When it comes to QE, mor…
  • Greed is a natural human emotion that affects individuals to varying degrees. Unfortunately, when viewed in the context of trading, greed has proven to be a hindrance more often than it has assisted traders. Learn how to control greed in trading here: https://t.co/kODPAfs2Iz https://t.co/DfG4YuKM4U
  • Wall Street Futures Update: Dow Jones (+0.03%) S&P 500 (-0.11%) Nasdaq 100 (-0.28%) [delayed] -BBG
  • Volatility follows the FOMC's slow approach to its second taper, but neither the Dollar nor the S&P 500 have held their charge. With US GDP ahead, expect the echoes of the central bank's warnings and watch $EURUSD and $USDCAD https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2021/07/29/EURUSD-Slow-Trigger-Reversal-and-USDCAD-Yet-to-Detonate-After-Fed-Before-US-GDP.html https://t.co/BCUTSX0WNY
Australian Dollar's Slide May Pause, But It's Probably Not Over

Australian Dollar's Slide May Pause, But It's Probably Not Over

David Cottle, Analyst
Australian Dollar's Slide May Pause, But It's Probably Not Over

Fundamental Australian Dollar Forecast: Neutral

  • The backdrop of an AUD/USD slide remains very much in place
  • But, weaker US CPI numbers have put the brakes on US Dollar bulls’ enthusiasm
  • It may return, but perhaps not in too much force this week

Discover what retail foreign exchange traders make of the Australian Dollar’s chances right now at the DailyFX Sentiment Page

The Australian Dollar is trading very much in thrall to the ‘USD’ side of AUD/USD and, although the coming week brings a couple of data points which may boost domestic influence, that backdrop is not about to change.

The currency remains in the clear downward trend which has marked trade against the US Dollar since AUD/USD peaked for this year, back in mid-January. Since then, more weak inflation data have seen the likely timing of Australian interest rate rises pushed back, while the greenback has risen against the Australian Dollar and much else, as the Federal Reserve remains on its monetary-tightening course.

Australian rate-futures markets don’t fully price any rise in the record-low, 1.50% Official Cash Rate until the summer of 2019. Meanwhile the Fed is widely expected to raise its own base rate once again next month.

Still, rampant US-Dollar bulls were given pause last week by weaker-than-expected consumer price inflation out of the US. Admittedly it didn’t miss the mark by very much, rising 0.2% on the month when markets had looked for a 0.3% gain. All the same, in such a Dollar-bullish environment, it was enough to put the breaks on.

The rethink may last a while now, pending more US numbers for investors to pore over. However, this week will see the release of minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia monetary policy meeting. If these stick to their usual themes then they are likely to remind investors, as if they needed reminding, that Australian rates are going nowhere fast and that the central bank is pretty comfortable with a weaker currency.

Official Australian employment data are coming up on Thursday too, but they’ll probably need to be either extremely strong or worryingly weak to move the currency market.

All up, there’s likely to be some more circumspection on the US Dollar this week, but probably no more specific reason to get longer of the Aussie.

So a neutral call it has to be.

Australian Dollar's Slide May Pause, But It's Probably Not Over

Resources for Traders

Whether you’re new to trading or an old hand DailyFX has plenty of resources to help you. There’s our trading sentiment indicator which shows you live how IG clients are positioned right now. We also hold educational and analytical webinars and offer trading guides, with one specifically aimed at those new to foreign exchange markets. There’s also a Bitcoin guide. Be sure to make the most of them all. They were written by our seasoned trading experts and they’re all free.

--- Written by David Cottle, DailyFX Research

Follow David on Twitter@DavidCottleFX or use the Comments section below to get in touch!

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES