News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Make smart trading decisions with your free guide to trade the news. Download your free guide here.https://t.co/pb5E2KgRzW #DailyFXGuides https://t.co/E9ZmJvqO0z
  • Currency exchange rates are impacted by several factors. Are different world leaders a contributing factor? Find out here: https://t.co/4jsORznRTE https://t.co/fqxw1AoKc1
  • Gold snapped a two-week losing streak but keeps price within the broader August downtrend. These are the levels that matter on the $XAUUSD weekly chart. Get your market update from @MBForex here: https://t.co/B3Jct6mIBD https://t.co/xTGIM2hRBv
  • $GBPUSD continues to move higher, despite Friday’s weakness, as vaccination hopes continue to fuel positive sentiment despite ongoing lockdown fears and downbeat UK data. Get your market update from @nickcawley1 here: https://t.co/S8UoHzOwFN https://t.co/qI6UZdggvM
  • Risk management is one of the most important aspects of successful trading, but is often overlooked. What are some basic principles or risk management? Find out from @PaulRobinsonFX here: https://t.co/IsnpfJhp91 https://t.co/6wxX6oQurn
  • Recessions can devastate the economy and disrupt the fortunes of individuals, businesses, and investors. But economic decline in the business cycle is inevitable, and your trading can be defined by how you respond to crisis. learn how to prepare here: https://t.co/e4CnobJCss https://t.co/w009tJEQZn
  • Looking for a new way to trade reversals? One of the most used reversal candle patterns is known as the Harami. Like most candlestick formation patterns, the Harami tells a story about sentiment in the market. Get better with trading reversals here: https://t.co/rfwUWJfbz9 https://t.co/2AeO1AdD2M
  • MACD who? The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is a technical indicator which simply measures the relationship of exponential moving averages (EMA). Find out how you can incorporate MACD into your trading strategy here: https://t.co/ZNs4Qi8ieG https://t.co/INJz4NSugQ
  • Knowing how to accurately value a stock enables traders to identify and take advantage of opportunities in the stock market. Find out the difference between a stock's market and intrinsic value, and the importance of the two here: https://t.co/QszmdZX8cS https://t.co/qdrsi61CN8
  • It seems the markets are riding high, but risk is always lurking around the corner. Consider your escape plan before you find yourself in collapsing market. What are the top havens for different conditions in 2021? Find out from @JohnKicklighter here: https://t.co/1oeXWEsJkb https://t.co/IyQdfq29fz
Australian Dollar Faces Potential Local CPI and US GDP Miss

Australian Dollar Faces Potential Local CPI and US GDP Miss

Daniel Dubrovsky, Analyst
Australian Dollar Faces Potential Local CPI and US GDP Miss

Australian Dollar Fundamental Forecast: Neutral

Talking Points:

  • Australian Dollar paid more attention to sentiment last week than relevant economic data
  • Local CPI and US GDP could disappoint, taking the currency one way and then another
  • This opens the door for risk trends to take the spotlight for the Australian Dollar yet again

Trade all the major global economic data live and interactive at the DailyFX Webinars. We’d love to have you along.

The Australian Dollar was on its way to finish another week higher against its US counterpart. It did show some temporary weakness on softer Chinese industrial production figures and a rather disappointing local jobs report. However, it recovered in both instances in the aftermath. It wasn’t until closer towards the end of the week when things went south.

A pickup in hawkish Fed rate hike expectations, which were fueled by comments from Lael Brainard, boosted the US Dollar and the 10-year government bond yield rose to a 2-month high. The appeal of these assets relatively speaking hurt stocks as the S&P 500 declined about 0.6%. The sentiment-linked Aussie Dollar fell to its lowest point against its US cousin since April 10th.

Perhaps this speaks to what the currency is more interested in, and brings us to what next week has to offer. The Reserve Bank of Australia is at the moment in no rush to adjust monetary policy. In fact, RBA’s minutes from their April rate decision reiterated this. Taking that into consideration, this may have been why there was a lack of follow-through from the Australian Dollar to last week’s Chinese and local economic statistics.

But there is one kind of data that may have a more pronounced effect on the Aussie. On Tuesday, we will get Australia’s first quarter inflation report. There, the headline rate is expected to rise to +2.0% y/y from 1.9% in the fourth quarter. Such an outcome would mean price growth in the lower boundaries of the RBA’s 2 – 3 percent target. Data out of the country has been crossing the wires below economists’ expectations as of late. If a similar situation reduces the urgency for the RBA to consider hiking, then the Aussie Dollar could fall.

Since both the Australian Dollar and its US counterpart have relatively higher yields in the FX majors spectrum, a loss of interest in the latter bodes well for the former and vice versa. For the greenback, on Friday we will get the first estimate of US first quarter GDP. With Mrs. Brainard and the beige book painting a rosy picture of the outlook, softer growth figures could hurt the greenback and boost the Aussie. This may be the case, like with Australian data, US ones have also been tending to underperform.

Last but not least, keep an eye out for risk trends. As we saw last week, the Australian Dollar is quite vulnerable. Even more so than to economic data potentially. Catalysts that may stoke volatility on this front include more US earnings (Amazon.com, Microsoft, Facebook) and trade developments. A wildcard could come from the Hong Kong Monetary Authority(HKMA). Last week, stocks rose despite their sudden action to defend their currency peg, the Australian Dollar rallied. With that in mind and taking into account these considerations, the Australian Dollar fundamental forecast will have to be neutral.

Australian Dollar Trading Resources:

--- Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Junior Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter

To receive Daniel's analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES