News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Short-term uncertainties to keep the pressure on equity markets. Get your weekly equities forecast from @JMcQueenFX here:
  • Many people are attracted to forex trading due to the amount of leverage that brokers provide. Leverage allows traders to gain more exposure in financial markets than what they are required to pay for. Learn about FX leverage here:
  • - Unreal atmosphere - Shame about the result, but no complaints - Usyk masterclass - Heavyweight division blown wide open
  • The USD could still rally a bit from here, but has resistance not far ahead that it will need to overcome if it is to extend to a larger degree. Get your weekly $USD technical forecast from @PaulRobinsonFX here:
  • When it comes to buying and selling forex, traders have unique styles and approaches. Learn about buying and selling forex here:
  • Slippage can be a common occurrence in forex trading but is often misunderstood. Understanding how forex slippage occurs can enable a trader to minimize negative slippage, while potentially maximizing positive slippage. Learn about FX slippage here:
  • What is your forex trading style? Take the quiz and find out:
  • Greed is a natural human emotion that affects individuals to varying degrees. Unfortunately, when viewed in the context of trading, greed has proven to be a hindrance more often than it has assisted traders. Learn how to control greed in trading here:
  • The results of this weekend’s German Federal Election will likely dominate Euro sentiment at the start of the week ahead but after a possible EUR/USD bounce they will have little long-term impact. Get your weekly $EUR forecast from @MartinSEssex here:
  • The Consumer Price Index, better known by the acronym CPI, is an important economic indicator released on a regular basis by major economies to give a timely glimpse into current growth and inflation levels. Learn how to better understand CPI here:
Australian Dollar Still Vulnerable To Global Trade Headlines

Australian Dollar Still Vulnerable To Global Trade Headlines

David Cottle, Analyst
Australian Dollar Still Vulnerable To Global Trade Headlines

Fundamental Australian Dollar Forecast: Bearish

  • The Australian Dollar is still looking for a bullish break
  • Interest rate differentials weigh on it against the US Dollar
  • And worries about US/China trade relations are unlikely to go away anytime soon

Join our analysts for live coverage of all the major economic data which affect the Australian Dollar at the DailyFX Webinars

The Australian Dollar remains horribly liable to collateral damage from trade headlines emanating from the US and China. They can further cloud a backdrop already dimmed (at least if you’re a bull) by clear bias lower in AUD/USD which has been in place for much of this still-young year.

The Aussie took a hit last Friday when US President Donald Trump ordered his trade advisors to target a further $100 billion in tariffs on Chinese imports, on top of the $50 billion already under consideration. This announcement came just as investors were increasing bets that the trade spat between Washington and Beijing might be cooling a little.

Australia obviously has vast raw-material trading links with China and so knee-jerk urge to sell the Aussie on such news is at least understandable, even if a deeper think might render it less so. Economists at Citigroup said last week that the Australian economy isn’t actually as trade-exposed as many others, and might do better than the likes of New Zealand, Singapore, India and China in just about all scenarios short of a full-blown trade war.

Still for now market reaction seems impervious to such nuance, and the currency seems likely to keep wobbling when trade risks come to the fore. More broadly AUD/USD remains in the daily-chart downtrend which has dominated proceedings since the highs of late January.

Australian Dollar Still Vulnerable To Global Trade Headlines

The Australian economy is revving quite nicely in some areas, notably the manufacturing sector where activity hit a record high last month according to the latest Purchasing Managers Index survey released last week. Australian trade is also doing pretty well.

But overall it seems stuck in a neutral gear, and the Reserve Bank of Australia certainly seems in no great hurry to lift the key Official Cash Rate from its 1.50% record low. That has been in place now since late 2016, taking the title of the longest unchanged base rate in Australian history. What’s more rate-futures markets don’t fully price in even a modest, quarter percentage point rise until April 2019- providing a bearish contrast with a Federal Reserve now well into its rate-hiking cycle.

Given all of the above the currency is likely to remain under some pressure this week. Of course more positive trade headlines- or a simple absence of negative ones- could buy it some respite, as could more upbeat domestic data. We’ll get the latest snapshots of both business and consumer confidence in the coming week.

But the overall direction of travel seems likely to remain to the downside and it’s another bearish call this week.

Resources for Traders

Whether you’re new to trading or an old hand DailyFX has plenty of resources to help you. There’s our trading sentiment indicator which shows you live how IG clients are positioned right now. We also hold educational and analytical webinars and offer trading guides, with one specifically aimed at those new to foreign exchange markets. There’s also a Bitcoin guide. Be sure to make the most of them all. They were written by our seasoned trading experts and they’re all free.

--- Written by David Cottle, DailyFX Research

Follow David on Twitter@DavidCottleFX or use the Comments section below to get in touch!

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.