News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • Technical indicators are chart analysis tools that can help traders better understand and act on price movement. Learn more about the importance of technical analysis here: https://t.co/NpC1D8y4Aa https://t.co/6sqqRfTri2
  • The British Pound, Australian Dollar and US Dollar may all experienced heightened periods of volatility as geopolitical risks in North America, Asia and Europe rattle global financial markets. Get your $GBPUSD market update from @ZabelinDimitri here:https://t.co/0EFToM5Y8I https://t.co/5gsZQfX6aG
  • The New Zealand Dollar may continue to outperform the haven-associated US Dollar as price breaks above key long-term resistance. Get your $NZDUSD market update from @DanielGMoss here:https://t.co/D1DxtDkJXd https://t.co/DwkK9F9FCJ
  • #Gold prices declined following bearish technical cues, but a key zone of support was reinforced over the past 48 hours. #XAUUSD volatility risk is elevated ahead of the #USElection - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/article/fx_technical_weekly/2020/10/30/Gold-Technical-Forecast-Election-Raises-Volatility-Risk-But-Support-Holds.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Dubrovsky&utm_campaign=twr https://t.co/5hgGEojvIE
  • What is the US Dollar outlook based on retail positioning ahead of the November 3rd presidential election? EUR/USD may fall as AUD/USD rises. Which way could USD/CAD capitulate? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/BVoIcR9anM https://t.co/Frmn9y6yKJ
  • US #COVID19 cases hit a record for a second consecutive day -BBG
  • The Indian Rupee may weaken following a breakout higher in USD/INR. Despite rising global stock market volatility, the Nifty 50 has been holding its ground. Could it capitulate lower? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/BNJ5uTKz1A https://t.co/VkvmiwWAtz
  • The US Dollar gained, pushing USD/SGD to break higher. However, USD/IDR may be looking at losses ahead. USD/MYR struggled to breach the March trendline. USD/PHP could rise.Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/6W76mWMRrJ https://t.co/ukJG4eqDK0
  • The #DowJones and #SP500 have as of today averaged: -2.16% & 1.43% 3-months and 1-year before #Election2020 respectively What could this mean for the incumbent president/Trump next week? 👇 https://t.co/e4EyLTzRXl
  • Forex Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇬🇧GBP: 0.14% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.04% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.01% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.18% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.22% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.23% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/XuMcr136y1
Australian Dollar May Not Get Much Support From The RBA

Australian Dollar May Not Get Much Support From The RBA

2017-11-04 00:56:00
David Cottle, Analyst
Share:
Australian Dollar May Not Get Much Support From The RBA

Fundamental Australian Dollar Forecast: Neutral

  • There’s an Australian interest rate decision looming
  • But there’s also next to no chance that rates will rise
  • Moreover, the Reserve Bank may decide to talk the Aussie down again

We’re one month into 2017’s final quarter, what will the next two bring? Check out the fundamental and technical forecastsfrom DailyFX.

The Australian Dollar will face a monetary-policy decision from the Reserve Bank of Australia in the coming week, but that may not provide it with much support, if any.

The key Official Cash Rate still languishes at the 1.50% record low which has endured since August 2016. It’s certainly not expected to change on Tuesday when the RBA gives the word.

Now, many other developed market central banks have either tightened monetary policy this year or signalled some intention of doing so. But the RBA has not. What’s more it has explicitly denied that rate rises elsewhere in the world place any burden upon it to follow. One of its officials even said in early October that rates could even go yet lower. That’s not market consensus, of course. Interest-rate futures markets think that the next move, when it comes, will be an increase. But they don’t now fully price one of those until the start of 2019.

Why the reticence? Well, the RBA’s dilemma was nicely underlined last week. Australia’s external, export machine is firing very nicely as the latest trade numbers showed. But commensurate vigour remains lacking in the domestic, consumer sector. There retail sales missed forecasts, while wages remain subdued and consumer debt is eye-wateringly high.

Unless the Reserve Bank has had a dramatic change of heart this month, it can be expected to stick with old themes. That will mean an acknowledgement of the Australian economy’s strengths as well as a frank admission of its weaknesses, probably accompanied by some loud grumbling about the baleful effects of too much currency strength.

Against this backdrop it is hard to see AUD/USD making much headway under its own power. Disappointing US economic data may of course shift the dial in the Aussie’s favour. But the trouble is that we are at that part of the month in which the US data cycle winds down after the crucial official labour-market release. There simply isn’t enough first-tier information on tap in the coming sessions.

Australian Dollar May Not Get Much Support From The RBA

That’s why all up it just has to be a neutral call this week. The Australian Dollar may not fall very far, and it may be worth keeping an eye on the little base which seems to be building around last week’s AUD/USD lows in the 0.7690 area. But it doesn’t look likely to rise much either.

--- Written by David Cottle, DailyFX Research

Contact and follow David on Twitter:@DavidCottleFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES