News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 96.85%, while traders in EUR/USD are at opposite extremes with 73.88%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/WcrSuBTyRr
  • Commodities Update: As of 07:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Gold: -0.16% Silver: -1.72% Oil - US Crude: -3.19% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/aGwj1SwyRm
  • Forex Update: As of 07:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇨🇭CHF: -0.15% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.15% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.24% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.33% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.35% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.42% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/x0PR3hSLqt
  • #CrudeOil plunging over 2.3% as Libya lifts force majeure on oil exports from El Feel oilfield A push back to support at the September low (36.15) looks likely if price can overcome the psychologically imposing $38 mark #OOTT https://t.co/gMxgs2qPTR
  • Indices Update: As of 07:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: FTSE 100: -0.57% Wall Street: -0.90% US 500: -0.91% France 40: -0.98% Germany 30: -1.49% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/MtIrqoITpz
  • #Euro Outlook: Covid-19 Second Wave to Weigh on $EURJPY, $EURUSD - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/session_briefing/euro_open/2020/10/26/Euro-Outlook-Covid-19-Second-Wave-to-Weigh-on-EURJPY-EURUSD-.html?CHID=9&QPID=917708&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Moss&utm_campaign=twr https://t.co/zLU4HOLcHE
  • Commodity currencies underperformed after House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows accused each other of "moving the goalposts" on stimulus legislation on Sunday - Bloomberg AUD/USD -0.35% CAD/USD - 0.29% NOK/USD - 0.45%
  • Technical indicators are chart analysis tools that can help traders better understand and act on price movement. Learn more about the importance of technical analysis here: https://t.co/NpC1D8y4Aa https://t.co/PkokcJCGxp
  • Some massive surges in Covid-19 cases worldwide: The US (+78,702 on Oct 24) France (+ 52,013 on Oct 25) Spain (+ 19,851 on Oct 23) UK (+ 19,790 on Oct 25) Germany (+ 11,176 on Oct 24) A virus resurgence dampened sentiment, weighing on equities, oil and growth-linked currencies.
  • Market Update Risk-off tilt persisting throughout APAC trade $USD gaining against all its major counterparts, with the cyclically-sensitive $AUD and $CAD the biggest underperformers #SP500 continuing to grind lower alongside #crudeoil, #gold and Australia's #ASX200
Australian Dollar Should Hold Up As Greenback Loses Some Shine

Australian Dollar Should Hold Up As Greenback Loses Some Shine

2017-10-14 04:01:00
David Cottle, Analyst
Share:
Australian Dollar Should Hold Up As Greenback Loses Some Shine

Fundamental Australian Dollar Forecast: Neutral

  • The Australian Dollar had plentiful supportive news last week
  • Inflation expectations, consumer spending and an official financial review all underlined the bull case
  • It may not get much more this week, but should still hold up

Just getting started in the AUD/USD trading world? Our beginners’ guide is here to help

The Australian Dollar is still being driven largely by interest-rate differentials between its home country and those of the US.

At face value those still help its big, US brother. After all the Federal Reserve is still widely expected to tighten monetary policy in December. Meanwhile futures markets don’t see Australian rates rising from their current, record-low point until well into 2018. That means US and Australian rates will match by year-end and the Aussie will lose its yield premium, assuming the Fed sticks to the script.

Sure enough, AUD/USD has been in retreat since topping out at 2017’s high in early September. However, last week saw a little readjustment in the Aussie’s favour. A survey of consumer confidence came in strongly, for one thing. It lacked immediate currency impact but, in the context of remarks from Reserve Bank of Australia policy board member Ian Harper this month, was still important. Harper shocked markets by saying that Australian interest rates could yet go lower if consumer vigour were to wilt. In one respect he was simply stating the obvious but markets had been sure that the next move, when it comes, would be a rate hike. They still think it will be, on balance, but nevertheless is comments hit the Aussie.

However, those consumer numbers show Australians still ready to spend. As long as they are, Harper’s contingency won’t be triggered.

The Australian Dollar got another lift last week from domestic inflation expectations, which moved higher this month. There was a bit of contrast here with the US, where Fed officials wondered whether weaker inflation might not be more entrenched than they had thought. The RBA’s Financial Stability Review was also upbeat about the economy’s prospects even if worries about consumer debt rightfully endure at the central bank.

So, the Australian Dollar sails into a new week still with the rate-differential odds against it, but perhaps at the margin slightly less so than they were. The week will offer two key data points, Australian employment numbers and Chinese Gross Domestic Product data. Both releases are due on Thursday. Both have Aussie-moving potential and, if they come in as forecast, both could life the currency.

But as far as AUD/USD is concerned, neither is very likely to change the monetary mood music between Washington and Canberra.

Therefore it’s a neutral call this week.

Australian Dollar Should Hold Up As Greenback Loses Some Shine

--- Written by David Cottle, DailyFX Research

Contact and follow David on Twitter:@DavidCottleFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES