News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • The US Dollar may rise against ASEAN currencies like the Singapore Dollar if local retail sales and sentiment data disappoints. USD/IDR may fall on the Bank of Indonesia. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/HpH8pXFdLl https://t.co/ZuHLVL8ItN
  • The US Dollar may rise against the Singapore Dollar and Philippine Peso. USD/MYR’s downtrend holds, but a bullish pattern brews. USD/IDR seems stuck between key technical levels.Get youe #ASEAN currencies market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/TF6DRVp6kX https://t.co/MYbR79MTux
  • US Supreme Court says Justice Ruth Ginsburg has passed away -BBG
  • 3 consecutive down weeks for the #SP500 as of today, the first actually in almost one year How's the #Fed balance sheet dong? Up 0.76% this week, most in a month. Though all things considered, materially unchanged since June/July Markets may be growing increasingly impatient... https://t.co/wD6wga9vsu
  • The New Zealand Dollar appears poised to extend its climb against its haven-associated counterparts as long-term trend break hints at cyclical upturn. Get your $NZDUSD market update from @DanielGMoss here: https://t.co/CPxP1Q8B6d https://t.co/NBJ9qkaNei
  • Forex Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇯🇵JPY: 0.17% 🇳🇿NZD: 0.07% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.06% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.30% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.33% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.43% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/lYbgFKQKmu
  • USD/MXN is in danger of picking up more momentum as the recent decline takes out support levels and gains ‘negative curvature’ to its path. Get your $USDMXN technical analysis from @PaulRobinsonFX here: https://t.co/eQzD6JyA5c https://t.co/km6neTN3M6
  • Commodities Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Gold: 0.33% Oil - US Crude: -0.55% Silver: -0.64% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/0yp0FnGl8y
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 97.22%, while traders in NZD/USD are at opposite extremes with 71.43%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/fu1Xj6AuYv
  • US Equity Update (Friday Close): $DJI -0.88% $SPX -1.12% $NDX -1.30% $RUT -0.38% $VIX -2.00%
Australian Dollar Faces Hostile Backdrop, May Well Struggle

Australian Dollar Faces Hostile Backdrop, May Well Struggle

2017-10-07 02:30:00
David Cottle, Analyst
Share:
Australian Dollar Faces Hostile Backdrop, May Well Struggle

Fundamental Australian Dollar Forecast: Bearish

  • The Australian Dollar wilted last week
  • Some weaker data and commentary from its own central bank did the damage
  • This week offers little scope for a trend change

What’s standing between you and being the trader you want to be? Take a look at the DailyFX deep dive into the Traits of Successful Traders.

Last week was not a banner period for Australian Dollar bulls.

Yes, the Reserve Bank of Australia left interest rates alone at their 1.50% record low, as had been universally expected. But its accompanying statement did not look like that of a central bank in any hurry to take any monetary-tightening action. It also included another spot of worrying aloud at the harmful effects of a too-strong currency.

Then came some baleful economic data in the form of a surprising slide in August retail sales. As far as currency trade went this more than eclipsed some much perkier trade numbers released at the same time. Finally, there was RBA board member Ian Harper. He told The Wall Street Journal that further interest-rate cuts could not be ruled out should consumption levels show signs of fading out.

Now of course you might think that Mr. Harper was being a little tricky here. No central banker ever rules out policy moves unless it must and one piece of weak data need not presage consumption Armageddon. Moreover, other RBA officials including the governor have suggested that current market pricing looks broadly correct. It predicts that the next move will in fact be a rise, if not until well into 2018.

However, taken with all of the above, and against a backdrop in which markets still think US monetary policy is getting tighter, then the Australian Dollar remains under a bit of pressure. And there’s little in terms of scheduled economic news this week which seems likely to shift the dial on this decisively in either direction.

Australian business and consumer confidence surveys are coming up, as are US retail sales and the minutes of the last Federal Reserve monetary conclave. However, these all seem likely to offer AUD/USD no more than momentary respite from a backdrop which is not conducive to the bulls.

So it’s a bearish call again this week, even if there’s no obvious reason for the current downward trend to accelerate markedly. It might also be worth keeping a weather eye out for RBA commentary. It seems that that does the Australian Dollar very little good right now.

Australian Dollar Faces Hostile Backdrop, May Well Struggle

--- Written by David Cottle, DailyFX Research

Contact and follow David on Twitter:@DavidCottleFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES