News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Wall Street
More View more
Real Time News
  • Indices Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Germany 30: 0.39% France 40: 0.32% FTSE 100: 0.26% US 500: 0.01% Wall Street: 0.01% View the performance of all markets via
  • Gilead Sciences receives FDA approval for Remdesivir - BBG
  • $GILD | Gilead Sciences receives FDA approval for coronavirus treatment remdiesivir
  • Can bulls continue to push? While the bullish theme in Gold remains on hold, buyers haven’t been so bashful around Bitcoin. Get your $btc technical analysis from @JStanleyFX here:
  • Precious Metals Update: #Gold 1904.24 (-1.04%), #Aluminum 1843.50 (+0.49%), and #Copper 6991.50 (+1.34%) [delayed]
  • US Dollar volatility remains heightened in the midst of back-and-forth stimulus negotiations. Get your $USD market update from @RichDvorakFX here:
  • Commodities Update: As of 18:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: -0.00% Gold: -1.08% Silver: -1.58% View the performance of all markets via
  • some interesting $BTC charts though. Even as Gold and Silver remain in sluggish digestion patterns, Bitcoin just launching higher through some big res. PTJ singing the praises prob didn't hurt #Bitcoin $BTCUSD
  • Fiscal updates are basically the new trade war updates.
Australian Dollar Lacks Obvious Floor This Week

Australian Dollar Lacks Obvious Floor This Week

2017-05-12 02:52:00
David Cottle, Analyst
Australian Dollar Lacks Obvious Floor This Week

Fundamental forecast for the Australian Dollar: Bearish

  • The Australian Dollar hit four-month lows last Tuesday
  • Weaker commodity prices and erosion of the rate advantage with its US cousin have taken a toll
  • Catalysts for a reversal are not obvious as a new week starts

What will decide Aussie’s fortunes though to mid-year? Check out the quarterlyDailyFX Forecasts

The Australian Dollar got down to four-month lows against its US cousin last week and has already slid about 2% this month.

Investors have been scared off by lower commodity prices, particularly when it comes to iron ore. That’s Australia’s main raw-material export and there appear to be inceasing worries about the durability of Chinese demand into the second half of the year. Oil-price falls didn’t help the Aussie either, but they at least saw some reversal as the week went on.

On the domestic front there was also a nasty collapse in bulding permit approvals. Obviously one feeble data point need not flag certain disaster. But given this series’ connection to future construction plans, investors are certainly casting nervous glances at the housing market.

Then of course thre are those interest-rate differentials. The US Federal Reserve is thought all-but certain to raise rates in June, with a further rise after that still its central expectation for 2017. Two stateside hikes would cancel out the Australian Dollar’s already-eroded yield advantage over the US.

Rate-futures markets do not expect any change to the RBA’s record-low 1.5% cash rate this year.

This is the backdrop against which the Australian Dollar will sail into a new week. Its problem is likely to be that there’s not enough on the data slate to decisively change any of the above.

We’ll get a look at Chinese retail sales and industrial production on Monday. If these are steady as expected then the numbers may pass the Aussie by. Any unexpected weakness however will only burnish the ‘China slowdown’ story and may make life tough for the currency. Australian employment numbers are coming up on Thursday but again it may take a shock here to move the AUD/USD dial either way.

What we can see from the chart below is that buyers did at least step back in at those four-month AUD/USD lows, if not with huge conviction. With that in mind a neutral call might tempt but, given that there’s simply not enough scheduled meat for investors to bite on this week, a further meander lower for the pair looks like the most convincing fundamental bet.

Drifting lower: AUD/USD

Australian Dollar Lacks Obvious Floor This Week

--- Written by David Cottle, DailyFX Research

Contact and follow David on Twitter:@DavidCottleFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.