News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bullish
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Did you know a Doji candlestick signals market indecision and the potential for a change in direction. What are the top five types of Doji candlesticks? Find out https://t.co/c51s3IBcEu https://t.co/AXZxK8Abrh
  • Global stock markets may see turbulent volatility if darkening clouds over Washington’s relations with Beijing turn into a geopolitical storm. Which assets will be the lifeboat? Find out here:https://t.co/RkFI6qAyik https://t.co/9Ppa4d48Ql
  • The Dow Jones and S&P 500 outlook appears bleak in the near term as retail traders increase their upside exposure. At the same time, these indices confirmed bearish technical warning signs. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/fKCHELbOxo https://t.co/e0liqVDzw6
  • The Japanese Yen may fall against its major peers, but there is room for a near-term climb that wouldn’t necessarily overturn a bearish technical bias. USD/JPY is eyeing support. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/AEnQCXnwAL https://t.co/tuq7DDF3jE
  • Protests in Colombia may continue to pressure the Peso, but surging commodity prices and a weaker Greenback could curb USD/COP gains. Get your market update here:https://t.co/vcVH75xuKI https://t.co/kEvbsagB4a
  • Money never sleeps.... https://t.co/mAkpWd2M3O
  • The US exchanges are closed and now we have to turn over to the cryptocurrency charts to monitor developments in risk trends over the weekend. Unfortunately, it can be difficult to separate systemic sentiment influences vs isolated issues (like a celebrity's tweet about a coin)
  • Forex Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇳🇿NZD: 0.93% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.72% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.55% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.50% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.32% 🇯🇵JPY: 0.11% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/rzD7Gp4VIC
  • Commodities Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 1.17% Gold: 0.92% Oil - US Crude: 0.22% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/TU8HEn8Gbk
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 90.44%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 73.01%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/M5ItmLXuiw
Australian Dollar Will Have To Let Its US Cousin Drive

Australian Dollar Will Have To Let Its US Cousin Drive

David Cottle, Analyst
Australian Dollar Will Have To Let Its US Cousin Drive

Fundamental Forecast for the Australian Dollar: Neutral

  • The Australian Dollar may find itself short of local drivers this week
  • The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to stand pat on monetary policy
  • That in turn means that US economic news will likely dominate AUD/USD

Last week the Australian stock market declared its independence.

Many bourses wilted with Wall Street following the US administration’s healthcare-reform stumble. But investors in Australian stocks chose to accentuate domestic positives instead, taking the ASX 200 benchmark up to two-year highs.

The Australian Dollar has yet to do the same, however. At any moment, the markets’ take on US monetary policy is likely to drive AUD/USD, much as it does for any other currency pair with ‘USD’ on either side.

And there’s little on this week’s horizon that is likely to change that. Yes, we will get a monetary policy decision from the Reserve Bank of Australia. But if there’s anyone who thinks Aussie interest rates will be rising, or indeed falling, from their current, record-low of 1.5% on Tuesday then they’re keeping it mighty quiet.

From official commentary, we know that the central bank is worried about weak inflation and high levels of household debt. We also know that it doesn’t necessarily want to see its currency much higher. None of this argues for a rate move. So, the picture is likely to stay as it is now, with steady local rates in the foreground, against a backdrop of rising US ones.

There’s also plenty of key US economic data due this week, including the biggie – official labor-market stats – for which we must to wait until Friday. Assuming these numbers don’t diverge hugely in either direction from market expectations, the overall picture looks boringly neutral for the Australian Dollar, at least against its US cousin.

Stuck in range: AUD/USD

Australian Dollar Will Have To Let Its US Cousin Drive

There is one piece of good news from the bulls’ perspective. The upward AUD/USD jolt delivered by the US Federal Reserve’s “dovish rate hike” last month has arrested what threatened to be a deeper decline. It has returned the pair to a trading range which has held since late February, and keeps the Aussie quite close to its highs for the year. That said, the range looks likely to endure this week.

What will drive markets and the Aussie Dollar in the second quarter? See our forecasts to find out!

--- Written by David Cottle, DailyFX Research

Contact and follow David on Twitter:@DavidCottleFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES