News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Oil - US Crude
Wall Street
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Emotions are often a key driving force behind #FOMO. If left unchecked, they can lead traders to neglect trading plans and exceed comfortable levels of risk. Read on and get your emotions in check here:
  • Technical indicators are chart analysis tools that can help traders better understand and act on price movement. Learn more about the importance of technical analysis here:
  • The British Pound, Australian Dollar and US Dollar may all experienced heightened periods of volatility as geopolitical risks in North America, Asia and Europe rattle global financial markets. Get your $GBPUSD market update from @ZabelinDimitri here:
  • The New Zealand Dollar may continue to outperform the haven-associated US Dollar as price breaks above key long-term resistance. Get your $NZDUSD market update from @DanielGMoss here:
  • #Gold prices declined following bearish technical cues, but a key zone of support was reinforced over the past 48 hours. #XAUUSD volatility risk is elevated ahead of the #USElection -
  • What is the US Dollar outlook based on retail positioning ahead of the November 3rd presidential election? EUR/USD may fall as AUD/USD rises. Which way could USD/CAD capitulate? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here:
  • US #COVID19 cases hit a record for a second consecutive day -BBG
  • The Indian Rupee may weaken following a breakout higher in USD/INR. Despite rising global stock market volatility, the Nifty 50 has been holding its ground. Could it capitulate lower? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here:
  • The US Dollar gained, pushing USD/SGD to break higher. However, USD/IDR may be looking at losses ahead. USD/MYR struggled to breach the March trendline. USD/PHP could rise.Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:
  • The #DowJones and #SP500 have as of today averaged: -2.16% & 1.43% 3-months and 1-year before #Election2020 respectively What could this mean for the incumbent president/Trump next week? 👇
Australian Dollar May Fall Further on Hawkish FOMC Guidance

Australian Dollar May Fall Further on Hawkish FOMC Guidance

2016-09-17 02:00:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
Australian Dollar May Fall Further on Hawkish FOMC Guidance

Fundamental Forecast for the Australian Dollar: Bearish

  • Australian Dollar at the mercy of risk trends, relative yields outlook
  • Lull in domestic event risk puts FOMC rate decision in the spotlight
  • Hawkish Fed posture threatens third week of Aussie Dollar lossess

Are retail traders buying or selling AUD/USD before the Fed rate decision? Find out here.

The Australian Dollar faces another difficult week ahead as all eyes turn to FOMC monetary policy announcement. The currency’s sensitivity to risk sentiment trends and relative yield spreads suggests whatever outcome crosses the wires, it is likely to generate ample Aussie volatility. The markets price in the probability of a rate hike at just 20 percent, suggesting few traders will be surprised if central bank officials opt for the status quo. The spotlight will be on the updated set of economic and rate-path forecasts as well as a press conference with Fed Chair Janet Yellen.

While US economic data has mostly underperformed relative to consensus forecasts since late July, decidedly hawkish comments from Yellen and Fed Vice Chair Fischer set off speculation of imminent tightening. This sense has been reinforced by saber-rattling from most other policymakers that have opined since. Investors will look for guidance that reconciles this disparity. Augusts’ stronger-than-expected inflation reading and nonfarm payrolls growth averaging above the 190k cited by Ms Yellen as supportive of a hike certainly help. However, explicitly singling out these developments as formative may be needed to guide market expectations through the fog of conflicting news-flow.

Although Fed officials have claimed that every policy meeting may produce a rate hike, their clear desire not to trigger market panic suggests that they will not opt to change things without an opportunity to thoroughly explain in detail. This means that after this week’s outing, the next opportunity for stimulus withdrawal comes in December. Between now and then, another opportunity to update traders will come in November, offering the FOMC a chance to up- or down-shift the projected rate hike path and limit surprise risk. Keeping this flexibility will mean that the narrative emerging from the upcoming announcement will need to be cautious but unmistakably hawkish. This bodes ill for risk appetite as well as the Aussie’s yield advantage, threatening to deliver the currency a third consecutive weekly loss.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.