News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Bullish
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • (Tech Special) Canadian Dollar Outlook: USD/CAD Surge Hits Obstacles, Where to Next? #CAD $USDCAD #Loonie #technicalanalysis https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/article/special_report/2021/06/22/Canadian-Dollar-Outlook-USDCAD-Surge-Hits-Obstacles-Where-to-Next.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Dubrovsky&utm_campaign=twr https://t.co/t4jCG9jNkO
  • Hang Seng Tech Index - Bullish MACD Convergence is forming - #HSTECH chart https://t.co/oy6GUjNqvG
  • 🇳🇱 Consumer Confidence (JUN) Actual: -3 Previous: -9 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-06-22
  • There are three major forex trading sessions which comprise the 24-hour market: the London session, the US session and the Asian session. Learn about the characteristics of each session here: https://t.co/reRmDe1Ksp https://t.co/ZBGVwxip3g
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Gold are long at 87.34%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 74.19%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/aQ1Vgos6em
  • Forex Update: As of 04:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇪🇺EUR: -0.07% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.07% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.10% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.15% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.15% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.26% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/ifGQz24uiW
  • Heads Up:🇳🇱 Consumer Confidence (JUN) due at 04:30 GMT (15min) Previous: -9 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-06-22
  • Indices Update: As of 04:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: France 40: 0.37% FTSE 100: 0.27% Germany 30: 0.26% Wall Street: 0.22% US 500: 0.18% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/FSBd3FRuSA
  • We have opened this week with a moderation of the extreme moves from the 2nd half of last week: Dow tumble leading risk aversion and Dollar rally. Fits general market conditions, but there is still potential. So what to do with key breaks like $USDCAD's? https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2021/06/22/Dollar-Breakout-and-Dow-Collapse-Starting-to-Pull-Back-on-the-Enthusiasm.html https://t.co/EpY8EgS4so
  • Greed is a natural human emotion that affects individuals to varying degrees. Unfortunately, when viewed in the context of trading, greed has proven to be a hindrance more often than it has assisted traders. Learn how to control greed in trading here: https://t.co/kODPAfJE79 https://t.co/rOnWgIotlz
Aussie to Stage Larger Recovery on Wait-and-See RBA, Strong 2Q GDP

Aussie to Stage Larger Recovery on Wait-and-See RBA, Strong 2Q GDP

David Song, Strategist
Aussie to Stage Larger Recovery on Wait-and-See RBA, Strong 2Q GDP

Fundamental Forecast for the Australian Dollar: Bullish

For more updates, sign up for David's e-mail distribution list.

The near-term series of higher highs & lows in AUD/USD may gather pace next week as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is widely anticipated to retain its current policy in September, while the regions 2Q Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report is projected to highlight the fastest pace of growth since 2012.

According to a Bloomberg News survey, all of the 26 economists polled forecasts the RBA to keep the benchmark interest rate on hold at the record-low of 1.50%, and the board may largely endorse a wait-and-see approach for monetary policy especially as Governor Glenn Stevens prepares to depart from the central bank. Even though the RBA warns ‘the latest data on inflation and labour costs confirm that domestic cost pressures remain subdued,’ the central bank may stick to the sidelines throughout the remainder of the year as ‘low interest rates and the depreciation of the Australian dollar exchange rate since early 2013 are continuing to support the rebalancing of economic activity towards non-resource sectors.’ With that said, Australia’s 2Q GDP report may further the case for the RBA to adopt a more neutral outlook for monetary policy as the region is expected to grow an annualized 3.2% following the 3.1% expansion during the first three-months of 2016, and the aussie may continue to outperform its U.S. counterparts as the mixed data coming out of the world’s largest economy dampens bets for a September Fed rate-hike.

The weaker-than-expected U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) print accompanied by the slowdown in household earnings may encourage the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to retain the current policy at the September 21 interest-rate decision as central bank officials persistently warn ‘most survey-based measures of longer-run inflation expectations were little changed, on balance, while market-based measures of inflation compensation remained low.’ The low-inflation environment across the major industrialized economies may encourage the FOMC to follow a similar path to 2015, but we may see a growing rift within the central bank as 2016-voting member Loretta Mester argues that there’s a ‘pretty compelling’ case for higher borrowing-costs. Nevertheless, the limited U.S. docket for the week ahead leave the U.S. dollar vulnerable to narrowing expectations for an imminent rate-hike as Chair Janet Yellen appears to be in no rush to further normalize monetary policy.

Aussie to Stage Larger Recovery on Wait-and-See RBA, Strong 2Q GDP

The near-term outlook for AUD/USD remains mired as the pair preserves the downward trending channel carried over from the previous month, but a series of positive developments out of Australia may threaten the bearish pattern as the pair carves as series of higher highs & lows coming into September. In turn, a break of trendline resistance along with a break/close back above former support around 0.7650 (78.6% retracement) may generate a larger advance in the exchange rate, with the next topside target coming in around 0.7740 (78.6% retracement).

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES