News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
Oil - US Crude
Wall Street
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • $AUDUSD, Australian govt. bond yields rising after #RBA minutes They mentioned a 1st step to tapering 'is likely to occur end of June' when TFF is likely to end They also said they may consider extending it amid deterioration in financial system, but signs are currently missing
  • Looking for a new way to trade reversals? One of the most used reversal candle patterns is known as the Harami. Like most candlestick formation patterns, the Harami tells a story about sentiment in the market. Get better with trading reversals here:
  • Commodities Update: As of 02:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 0.71% Silver: 0.07% Gold: -0.10% View the performance of all markets via
  • Forex Update: As of 02:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇦🇺AUD: 0.32% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.18% 🇳🇿NZD: 0.17% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.05% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.06% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.10% View the performance of all markets via
  • China's Xi: Will continue to cut negative list for inbound FDI -BBG
  • China's Xi: China will promote new type of international relations, will do more to help developing nations defeat Covid-19 -BBG
  • China's President Xi Jinping: Must uphold multilateral trading system with #WTO at core, pandemic makes clear must reject Cold War zero sum thinking -BBG
  • RBA Minutes: Monitoring housing borrowing, lending standards carefully. Data, CPI outlook will decide shift of YCC target to November-24 -BBG
  • Please join us at 11:00 PM EST/3:00 GMT for a webinar where you can prepare to trade AUD/USD in the week ahead. Register here:
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 92.55%, while traders in Germany 30 are at opposite extremes with 80.61%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX:
Australian Dollar May Fall as RBA Rate Cut Bets Rebuild

Australian Dollar May Fall as RBA Rate Cut Bets Rebuild

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
Australian Dollar May Fall as RBA Rate Cut Bets Rebuild

Fundamental Forecast for the Australian Dollar: Bearish

  • July’s Australian jobs data may fall short of consensus forecasts
  • Minutes from August RBA meeting may clash with market views
  • Aussie Dollar may fall as near-term RBA rate speculation builds

What do retail traders’ AUD/USD trade decisions say about the price trend? Find out here.

Monetary policy concerns return to the forefront for the Australian Dollar in the week ahead as July’s Employment report comes across the wires. Job creation is expected to pick up a bit, with a net increase of 10.0k expected compared with a 7.9k gain in the prior month.

Australian economic news-flow has increasingly softened relative to consensus forecasts over recent weeks, hinting that analysts’ models overestimate the economy’s vigor and opening the door for a downside surprise. Such an outcome may check the recent retreat in RBA rate cut speculation.

Investors priced in a 64 percent chance of a 25bps reduction in the cash rate ahead of Augusts’ RBA meeting, so they were not especially surprised when this materialized. Indeed, a short-lived Aussie dip was swiftly erased, with investors interpreting the policy statement as downgrading the chance of further easing.

This is a curious reading of an RBA statement that used up quite a bit of space to expound about effective supervisory measures cooling buoyant home prices. In fact, the central bank went so far as to say that “the likelihood of lower interest rates exacerbating risks in the housing market has diminished.” This paints the central bank as more keen to expand stimulus, not less.

Soft employment data may force investors to rethink their RBA outlook, highlight this apparent disconnect between officials’ messaging and the markets’ response. A dovish tone in minutes from Augusts’ policy meeting and a downtick in the pace of wage inflation – both set to be released ahead of the jobs report – may help set the stage for just such an outcome.

Needless to say, the Australian Dollar is likely to suffer if this ultimately translates into rebuilding bets on further stimulus expansion in the near term. As it stands, markets envision at least one more 25bps cut over the next 12 months but the move is not expected until the second quarter of next year.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.