0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • #Gold saw its worst performance the past 5 days in 5 months as longer-dated government bond yields in developed countries rose Could this be the beginning of a turning point in #XAUUSD? https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/forecast/weekly/chf/2020/08/15/Gold-Price-Outlook-Will-XAUUSD-Brush-off-Worst-Week-in-5-Months.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Dubrovsky&utm_campaign=twr https://t.co/x2Indk3b7P
  • Did you know a Doji candlestick signals market indecision and the potential for a change in direction. What are the top five types of Doji candlesticks? Find out: https://t.co/td5WA4hCZC https://t.co/PT09ZsIOCa
  • The US #Dollar may rise, buoyed by haven demand as fiscal stimulus talks stagnate and swelling tensions between Washington and Beijing sink trade talks. Get your #currencies update from @DanielGMoss here: https://t.co/Wcw9PDUr67 https://t.co/gnYZYl6aLV
  • Upside in #CrudeOil struggling ahead of #OPEC meeting. Cartel likely to maintain wait and see approach. Get your #commodities update from @JMcQueenFX here: https://t.co/gNHHKoTUzm https://t.co/eF40DRIBJ5
  • #Gold had some big moves last week, and while vol is expected to die down a bit, it will be important to see if gold can hold its ground in the coming days/weeks. Get your #metals update from @PaulRobinsonFX here: https://t.co/N8a84hRnHN https://t.co/3fjodPHTDm
  • The S&P 500's refusal to hit a record and Dollar's anchor to range this past week is sign of summer liquidity conditions, but the quiet is not insurmountable. 'S&P 500 Record and Dollar Break Look to Stimulus and Trade to Override Seasonality' https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2020/08/15/SP-500-Record-and-Dollar-Break-Look-to-Stimulus-and-Trade-to-Override-Seasonality-.html https://t.co/mbvPkdQfYl
  • Get your snapshot update of the of relative currency strength and exchange status from around the globe here: https://t.co/DmhBkcMZBK https://t.co/kFk6ccU3Sk
  • The Federal Reserve System (the Fed) was founded in 1913 by the United States Congress. The Fed’s actions and policies have a major impact on currency value, affecting many trades involving the US Dollar. Learn more about the Fed here: https://t.co/ADSC4sIHrP https://t.co/aXSB0bG3y0
  • Take a closer look visually at the most influential global importers and exporters here: https://t.co/1G7CRsegRX https://t.co/i342ipPuvW
  • Why financial market traders must monitor both monetary and fiscal policy? Find out from @MartinSEssex here:https://t.co/Fkzk88Y5gm https://t.co/tHp0Nb3Tr5
RBA’s Lack of Dovish Forward Guidance Provides Support For AUD

RBA’s Lack of Dovish Forward Guidance Provides Support For AUD

2016-08-05 22:23:00
Tyler Yell, CMT, Currency Strategist
Share:
Please add a description for the image.

Fundamental Forecast for the Australian Dollar: Neutral

• Dovish Components RBA’s SMP Mainly Result of External Factors, Favoring AUD Resilience

• Australian Dollar Sentiment Points to Gains

• For up-to-date and real-time analysis on the AUD and market reactions to economic factors currently ‘in the air,’ DailyFX on Demand can help.

The Australian Dollar touched its highest level against the U.S. Dollar on Thursday at 0.76632 since July 15 before the Statement of Monetary Policy provided little forward guidance that caused traders to take their profits. On Friday morning, the Australian Dollar joined the rest of G10 FX by taking a back-seat to the US Dollar after the Non-Farm Payroll Numbers shattered expectations by coming in at 255k vs. expectations of 180k. Such a beat comes after June’s report of 292,000. Therefore, it would be short-sighted to think the $A is weak by looking at AUDUSD because USD is strong across the board.

This week was full of key economic data for Australia including the Trade Balance, Building Approvals, the RBA Cash Target Rate, and Retail Sales. As you can imagine, the headliner was the RBA cash rate cut of 25bps from 1.75% to 1.50%. Despite the cut, the lack of guidance showing a preference for another cut in light of a rather robust local economy has supported the Australian Dollar across the board. Additionally, the RBA failed (likely on purpose) to downgrade the inflation forecast any further, and didn’t seem bothered by the appreciating AUD as they had in the past.

Other key points this week that caught trader’s attention was the Trade Balance that showed more exports than expected via the Trade Balance that came in at $A -2B. Also, the round out the week full of economic data was the Retail Sales MoM that beat expectations at 0.3% vs. 0.1% expectations.

Towards the week’s close, the Australian Dollar was performing best against commodity counterparts and the JPY.

Three key data points will be in store for AUD traders next week with ANZ Job Advertisements, NAB Business Conditions/Confidence, Home Loads, and most importantly the Westpac Consumer Confidence MoM

Australian Dollar Sentiment Points to Gains

Please add a description for the image.

The ratio of long to short positions in the AUDUSD stands at -1.63 as 38% of traders are long. Long positions are 8.4% lower than yesterday and 10.6% below levels seen last week. Short positions are 11.8% higher than yesterday and 43.6% above levels seen last week.

We use our SSI as a contrarian indicator to price action, and the fact that the majority of traders are short gives a signal that the AUDUSD may continue higher. The trading crowd has grown further net-short from yesterday and last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives a further bullish trading bias.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.