News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
More View more
Real Time News
  • Did you know a Doji candlestick signals market indecision and the potential for a change in direction. What are the top five types of Doji candlesticks? Find out https://t.co/c51s3ISNw2 https://t.co/wHRSW07Fkn
  • RT @FxWestwater: Gold, Iron Ore Forecast: Prices Hinge on FOMC, Evergrande Crisis, China Steelmaking Curbs Link: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/daily_pieces/commodities/2021/09/21/Gold-Iron-Ore-Forecast-Prices-Hinge-on-FOMC-Evergrande-Crisis-Steelmaking-Curbs.html?CHID=9&QPID=917708&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Westwater&utm_campaign=twr h…
  • GDP (Gross Domestic Product) economic data is deemed highly significant in the forex market. GDP figures are used as an indicator by fundamentalists to gauge the overall health and potential growth of a country. Learn use GDP data to your advantage here: https://t.co/Yl9vM73cHA https://t.co/FsbhOelVEk
  • Implementing a trading checklist is a vital part of the trading process because it helps traders to stay disciplined, stick to the trading plan, and builds confidence. Learn how to stick to the plan, stay disciplined, and use a checklist here: https://t.co/SQUCCZ9dzS https://t.co/I8jJq8NGCH
  • We are heading into a Tuesday lull which precedes Wednesday's FOMC focus. Will the absence of distractions allow for risk trends to gain momentum or perhaps will Fed anticipation temper the $SPX tumble? My take: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2021/09/21/Fed-Taper-Focus-May-Help-Stall-the-SP-500s-Collapse-Dollars-Charge.html https://t.co/T4m60xEfk6
  • CTV projects Trudeau wins his third term as Canada's Prime Minister - BBG
  • Do you know how to properly Identify a double top formation? Double tops can enhance technical analysis when trading both forex or stocks, making the pattern highly versatile in nature. Learn more about the double top formation here: https://t.co/t9FlspUVZz https://t.co/KY6MiOC9Y6
  • US House Speaker Pelosi says top-line spending number may change but hopes for $3.5 trillion in spending bill - BBG
  • RBA Minutes: - Board committed to providing high level of monetary support - Q3 GDP expected to decline materially - Central scenario is rates on hold until 2024 - BBG $AUDUSD
  • Heads Up:🇦🇺 RBA Meeting Minutes due at 01:30 GMT (15min) https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-09-21
Australian Dollar Volatility to Continue on China, Jobs Data

Australian Dollar Volatility to Continue on China, Jobs Data

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
Australian Dollar Volatility to Continue on China, Jobs DataAustralian Dollar Volatility to Continue on China, Jobs Data

Fundamental Forecast for the Australian Dollar: Neutral

  • Australian Dollar Continues to Face China-Driven Risk Aversion Threat
  • Upbeat Jobs Data May Trim RBA Rate Cut Outlook, Cap Aussie Losses
  • Find Critical Turning Points for the Australian Dollar with DailyFX SSI

The Australian Dollar succumbed to broad-based risk aversion last week, dropping the most in over four years against its US counterpart. China appeared to be the epicenter of negativity as policymakers attempted to implement a new circuit-breaker system for limiting stock-market volatility. The setup envisioned pausing trade for 15 minutes if shares sustained a loss of 5 percent and stopping it altogether at a loss of 7 percent.

Sharp intraday swings are not unusual for Chinese stocks, where trading is dominated by retail speculators with a focus on the short term. Circuit-breakers proved counter-intuitive in this environment, exerting a kind of magnetism on prices. If an intraday downswing begins to approach the first 5 percent threshold, investors rush to sell before the shut-down, which only accelerates the selloff. Those that missed out are then anxiously waiting to liquidate once trade resumes, making for a swift slide to the cut-off at 7 percent.

The dour mood deepened as China weakened the Yuan by the most since Augusts’ dramatic restructuring of the daily fix regime for the onshore exchange rate. The profile of Chinese market participants turned this into a negative catalyst despite its would-be stimulative implications. Devaluation eroded purchasing power of imported goods and services. This may have forced punters in Chinese shares to divert “play money” out of trading accounts and toward everyday expenses.

Spillover from Chinese turmoil into the broader markets appears to be driven by fears of instability in the world’s second-largest economy. This seems to be coupled with a general tendency toward risk aversion as the Fed begins to tighten monetary policy even as global growth decelerates. More of the same may be on tap as prior restrictions on large sellers lapse going into next week. Circuit-breakers have been suspected for now but large downturns may still spoil sentiment, sending the Aussie lower alongside global equities.

On the domestic front, Employment data will be in focus. The economy is expected to have lost 10k jobs in December, marking the first drawdown in three months. The unemployment rate is seen ticking higher to 5.9 percent. Australian news-flow has increasingly improved relative to consensus forecasts over the past two months, hinting analysts’ models are understating the economy’s vigor and opening the door for an upside surprise. Such an outcome may weigh against RBA rate cut speculation and boost the Aussie.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES