News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Bullish
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Commodities Update: As of 18:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 2.72% Gold: 1.24% Oil - US Crude: 0.02% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/LEuM2UyMpc
  • Canadian #Dollar Forecast: $USDCAD Seven-Week Plunge Searches Support - https://t.co/XW5aHqivhu https://t.co/rrZtho7V70
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 88.08%, while traders in Germany 30 are at opposite extremes with 74.85%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/RpXt0c3dDQ
  • US Dollar Index (DXY) steadily trending lower towards yearly low. Feb low up first at 89.68, then 89.20 to follow. Get your $USD market update from @PaulRobinsonFX here:https://t.co/4OvnYANsPE https://t.co/zOWYFvVIdf
  • Indices Update: As of 18:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: FTSE 100: 0.09% France 40: -0.07% Germany 30: -0.08% Wall Street: -0.41% US 500: -0.61% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/ZUO0U8wkJ9
  • Gold prices have jumped to a fresh three-month-high to start this week. Get your $XAUUSD market update from @JStanleyFX here:https://t.co/fTYcHtD8MX https://t.co/xVQBYr4vCJ
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 88.67%, while traders in Germany 30 are at opposite extremes with 75.01%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/SF4w4toKO5
  • Commodities Update: As of 16:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 2.67% Oil - US Crude: 1.41% Gold: 1.23% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/ngyNW7Dyfh
  • Gold Price Forecast: Gold Breaks Bull Flag - Can Buyers Maintain? https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/session_briefing/daily_fundamentals/2021/05/17/Gold-Price-Forecast-Gold-Breaks-Bull-Flag-Can-Buyers-Maintain.html $Gold https://t.co/7Bbm0rDS0G
  • Forex Update: As of 16:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇬🇧GBP: 0.23% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.17% 🇯🇵JPY: 0.16% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.10% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.22% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.54% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/BGgx9WQxZa
Australian Dollar Rally May Stall on Jobs Data, US Inflation Uptick

Australian Dollar Rally May Stall on Jobs Data, US Inflation Uptick

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
Australian Dollar Rally May Stall on Jobs Data, US Inflation UptickAustralian Dollar Rally May Stall on Jobs Data, US Inflation Uptick

Fundamental Forecast for the Australian Dollar: Neutral

  • Soft Employment Figures May Stoke On-Coming RBA Easing Speculation
  • US Core Inflation Uptick May Rekindle 2015 Fed Interest Rate Hike Bets
  • Find Critical Turning Points for the Australian Dollar with DailyFX SSI

On the domestic front, September’s Employment figures are in focus in the week ahead. Economists expect a 5,000 net increase in jobs, marking the smallest gain in three months. The unemployment rate is seen ticking up to 6.3 percent to match a six-month high.

Australian data outcomes have increasingly disappointed relative to consensus forecasts in recent weeks. This suggests analysts’ models are over-estimating the economy’s vigor, opening the door for more of the same ahead.

Last week’s RBA policy announcement maintained a familiarly neutral tone, offering no pre-established bias and stressing the data dependence of the central bank’s near-term outlook. Meanwhile, traders continue to price in at least one 25bps interest rate cut over the coming 12 months. A soft jobs reading may fuel speculation that easing will come relatively sooner versus later, weighing on the Aussie Dollar.

Externally, the evolution of bets on the likely timing of the first post-QE interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve remains in focus. Indeed, the Aussie’s ongoing eight-day winning streak - the longest in two years - is playing out alongside a downturn in front-end US bond yields and a rebound in the S&P 500 as a dovish shift in expectations feeds risk appetite.

September’s US CPI data stands out as an important inflection point in the debate among a range of noteworthy releases in the week ahead. Sluggish inflation has been at the heart of the Fed’s reluctance to begin stimulus withdrawal.

US price growth readings have firmed relative to analysts’ expectations since mid-year. If this trend continues and puts the core year-on-year CPI growth rate above 1.8 percent for the first time in 14 months, traders may begin to entertain calls for a 2015 rate hike championed by most Fed officials in recent commentary. This could trigger risk aversion, weighing on the sentiment-linked Australian unit.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES