News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Bullish
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Oil - US Crude IG Client Sentiment: Our data shows traders are now at their least net-long Oil - US Crude since Jan 06 when Oil - US Crude traded near 5,008.80. A contrarian view of crowd sentiment points to Oil - US Crude strength. https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/5dv539nKye
  • US Indices are struggling again today. The Nasdaq is now down 10% from the record highs of mid February, entering correction territory. The $VIX has risen to its highest level since last week's bond market event. DOW -1.31% NDX -2.37% SPX -1.48% RUT -2.68% $DIA $QQQ $SPY $IWM https://t.co/VKbWrCcymL
  • #Bitcoin battle-lines drawn. . . Updated 240min $BTCUSD https://t.co/epcJWYYoQh https://t.co/duPBPAM0Ps
  • Overall, Powell sticks with the current Fed stance and hence the move with the USD and UST yields higher, while gold tests 1700 https://t.co/78ds2uS2i9
  • #Gold is hitting fresh nine-month low in the aftermath of Fed Chair Powell's speech, falling to currently trade right around $1,700 for the first time since June of 2020. $XAU $GLD https://t.co/6OJ5Fn4Kn8
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 92.38%, while traders in Germany 30 are at opposite extremes with 70.84%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/Lgws7z82Gc
  • $Silver testing confluent support, trendline + 23.6 fibo $SLV $XAG https://t.co/UTHhXzPS1v
  • $EURUSD tripping back down to the 1.2000 level on these Powell comments https://t.co/SAAMVbJtpe https://t.co/NXBumuo4qA
  • Commodities Update: As of 17:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 5.61% Gold: -0.15% Silver: -0.56% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/ssjMeko9zk
  • $DXY US Dollar Index spiking to session highs on the back of this move in yields. $EURUSD tumbling down to the 1.2000-level. https://t.co/ZPADmoQfHe
Australian Dollar to Filter Risk Trends Impact Through RBA Rhetoric

Australian Dollar to Filter Risk Trends Impact Through RBA Rhetoric

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
Australian Dollar to Filter Risk Trends Impact Through RBA Rhetoric

Fundamental Forecast for the Australian Dollar: Neutral

  • RBA Comments to Gauge the Impact of Risk Selloff on Rate Cut Bets
  • Supportive US News-Flow May Prove Negative for Risk Sentiment
  • Find Key Turning Points for the Australian Dollar with DailyFX SSI

The Australian Dollar finished last week with the worst performance in seven months, dropping over 2 percent against its top counterparts as market-wide risk aversion weighed on the sentiment-linked currency. The rout across emerging-market assets and global equities had rekindled speculation that the RBA will need to embark on further monetary easing. Indeed, a measure tracking the priced-in outlook for benchmark lending rate dropped to the lowest level in nearly two months last week and now calls for at least one 25 basis point cut in the next 12 months.

In the week ahead, comments from RBA Governor Glenn Stevens will put this interpretation of the selloff to the test. The central bank chief is due to speak at the National Reform summit organized by The Australian and The Australian Financial Review newspapers next week. He will almost certainly comment on the impact of the slump across global exchanges on Australia’s own fortunes and the possibility that negative spillover will beckon additional policy support.

Rhetoric suggesting that officials are being made uneasy by recent developments and have started to ponder the need to reduce borrowing costs further is likely to weigh heavily on the Aussie Dollar, whereas a sanguine posture could offer a degree of support. The former scenario seems likely to inspire greater follow-through however. Central bankers typically take a longer view of economic trends than financial markets so investors are unlikely to be meaningfully surprised if Stevens opts for a wait-and-see approach. On the other hand, a palpable dovish done shift would imply the RBA sees lasting headwinds ahead.

On the external front, US economic news-flow takes top billing as home sales, consumer confidence and updated GDP figures cross the wires. As before, the outcomes are likely to be judged in terms of their implications for the likely timing of the Fed’s first post-QE interest rate hike. Improvements are expected across the board, but the implications of such outcomes may prove somewhat counter-intuitive.

The markets have interpreted recent risk aversion as likely to delay tightening, with the priced-in outlook for the year-end standing of the Fed Funds rate falling alongside the S&P 500. This hints that while a stronger US economy amounts to broadly good news for global output, the possibility that upbeat data encourages the Fed to begin withdrawing stimulus in an otherwise difficult environment may be seen as decidedly risk-negative. This suggests that the Aussie may suffer if upbeat US data prints on the strong side. With that said, the possibility that firmer figures are on-boarded as supportive for sentiment and thereby lift the Aussie ought not be fully discounted.IS

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES