News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • - There’s No Fundamental Justification For A Tightening Of Nominal Bond Yields At The Long End - Governing Council Should Instruct Board At March 11 Meeting To Fight Unwarranted Tightening Of Financing Conditions
  • Indices Update: As of 15:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: US 500: -0.17% Germany 30: -0.70% Wall Street: -0.85% France 40: -1.46% FTSE 100: -2.32% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/rgg0WIgTxK
  • ECB's Stournaras says ECB should accelerate PEPP purchases
  • Another brutal day for gold as it breaks beneath prior February lows Read more - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/market_alert/2021/02/25/Gold-Price-Plummets-as-Treasury-Yields-Soar-Where-to-Next-for-Gold.html?ref-author=phanks&QPID=917701&CHID=9 $GLD $XAU https://t.co/5qpaELXVLz
  • $Gold sell-off getting nasty just started to test 38.2 of the 18-20 major move ~1725 $GC $GLD https://t.co/1cb3hjRAR2 https://t.co/nXy6gomZU0
  • Gold printed a fresh eight-month low earlier in today’s session and the precious metal looks set to fall further if US Treasury yields resume their multi-month rally. Get your $XAUUSD market update from @nickcawley1 here:https://t.co/I4RpWM0mEY https://t.co/OrtbLLncuK
  • $Silver not able to escape this rates move, testing tl support. not quite as bearish looking as $gold https://t.co/XnW51WNiBd
  • Other measures of risk are dropping as well: EEM emerging markets, HYG junk bonds, AUDJPY carry trade, copper for commodities (hey at least it eases that inflation fear a little)
  • There goes 3,800 on $SPX
  • oy that's a nasty candle on the $SPX two hour chart $SPY $ES https://t.co/z95ReMpglC
Australian Dollar Bounce May Be Stymied by Outside Forces Yet Again

Australian Dollar Bounce May Be Stymied by Outside Forces Yet Again

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
Australian Dollar Bounce May Be Stymied by Outside Forces Yet Again

Fundamental Forecast for the Australian Dollar: Neutral

  • US News-Flow May Boost September Rate Hike Bets, Hurting Aussie
  • RBA Meeting Minutes to Underscore Shift to Neutral Policy Stance
  • Find Key Turning Points for the Australian Dollar with DailyFX SSI

The Australian Dollar ended last week little-changed as the supportive influence of an improving monetary policy outlook was countervailed by China-linked jitters. While a palpable shift away from an overtly dovish bias and toward a neutral one at the RBA promised to help engineer an Aussie recovery, the PBOC’s unexpected decision to devalue the Yuan confused investors and set off seesaw volatility.

More of the same looks likely in the week ahead, with US event risk taking the place of Chinese news-flow as the disrupting force undermining supportive developments on the home front. Indeed, the Yuan devaluation fiasco seems to have faded from view as the markets acclimate to the PBOC’s new regime for setting the daily reference rate. The release of July’s US CPI figures as well as minutes from last month’s FOMC meeting promise to keep investors on edge.

The former release is set to show the core year-on-year inflation rate rose to 1.9 percent, the highest in a year. Broadly speaking, US economic news-flow has increasingly outperformed relative to consensus forecasts since mid-May, leaving the door open for an even stronger reading.

Meanwhile, the account of the Fed’s July sit-down may foreshadow a rate hike in September. The conspicuous absence of dissent from hawkish FOMC members last month hints that withholding tightening may have been a tactical rather than a qualitative decision.

Analysts tracked by Bloomberg seem to favor “liftoff” in September while Fed Funds futures continue to price it in for October, meaning a move in July would have almost certainly triggered pandemonium. With that in mind, Fed officials may have acknowledged that the economy is ready for stimulus withdrawal but opted to wait for the sake of smoother normalization.

Clues to that effect may help cement September as the consensus time frame and force investors to re-price expectations baked into asset prices. That stands to weigh on risk appetite as traders consider the pivotal role of expansionary monetary policy in fueling the post-crisis recovery in financial markets, sending the Aussie lower alongside other sentiment-linked instruments. Needless to say, a stronger CPI print would only encourage this process.

Domestically, the spotlight will be on minutes from Augusts’ RBA meeting. The document will probably reinforce the sense that central bank is firmly in wait-and-see mode. In fact, as much was firmly telegraphed by Assistant Governor Kent late last week. However, the degree to which the Aussie will be able to capitalize on the central bank’s shift away from a dovish posture this time around is unclear.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES