News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • Commodities Update: As of 07:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Gold: -0.16% Silver: -1.72% Oil - US Crude: -3.19% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/aGwj1SwyRm
  • Forex Update: As of 07:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇨🇭CHF: -0.15% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.15% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.24% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.33% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.35% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.42% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/x0PR3hSLqt
  • #CrudeOil plunging over 2.3% as Libya lifts force majeure on oil exports from El Feel oilfield A push back to support at the September low (36.15) looks likely if price can overcome the psychologically imposing $38 mark #OOTT https://t.co/gMxgs2qPTR
  • Indices Update: As of 07:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: FTSE 100: -0.57% Wall Street: -0.90% US 500: -0.91% France 40: -0.98% Germany 30: -1.49% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/MtIrqoITpz
  • #Euro Outlook: Covid-19 Second Wave to Weigh on $EURJPY, $EURUSD - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/session_briefing/euro_open/2020/10/26/Euro-Outlook-Covid-19-Second-Wave-to-Weigh-on-EURJPY-EURUSD-.html?CHID=9&QPID=917708&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Moss&utm_campaign=twr https://t.co/zLU4HOLcHE
  • Commodity currencies underperformed after House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows accused each other of "moving the goalposts" on stimulus legislation on Sunday - Bloomberg AUD/USD -0.35% CAD/USD - 0.29% NOK/USD - 0.45%
  • Technical indicators are chart analysis tools that can help traders better understand and act on price movement. Learn more about the importance of technical analysis here: https://t.co/NpC1D8y4Aa https://t.co/PkokcJCGxp
  • Some massive surges in Covid-19 cases worldwide: The US (+78,702 on Oct 24) France (+ 52,013 on Oct 25) Spain (+ 19,851 on Oct 23) UK (+ 19,790 on Oct 25) Germany (+ 11,176 on Oct 24) A virus resurgence dampened sentiment, weighing on equities, oil and growth-linked currencies.
  • Market Update Risk-off tilt persisting throughout APAC trade $USD gaining against all its major counterparts, with the cyclically-sensitive $AUD and $CAD the biggest underperformers #SP500 continuing to grind lower alongside #crudeoil, #gold and Australia's #ASX200
  • 🇯🇵 Leading Economic Index Final (AUG) Actual: 88.4 Expected: 88.8 Previous: 86.7 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-10-26
Australian Dollar May Rise as RBA Disappoints Rate Hike Bets

Australian Dollar May Rise as RBA Disappoints Rate Hike Bets

2015-05-02 01:47:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
Share:
Australian Dollar May Rise as RBA Disappoints Rate Hike Bets

Fundamental Forecast for the Australian Dollar: Neutral

  • Compelling Evidence Stacks Up Against Widely Expected RBA Rate Cut
  • Australian Dollar Set to Rise if Easing Bets are Disappointed Yet Again
  • Identify Key Turning Points for the Australian Dollar with DailyFX SSI

Australian Dollar price action made for a wild ride last week. First, a surge of nearly two percent early in the week produced the largest daily rally in 15 months and took at long-standing range resistance at the 0.79 figure against its US counterpart. Then, in the final 48 hours of the week, a sharp selloff erased the advance and put the currency nearly flat heading into the weekly close.

The tumult tracked swings in Australia’s front-end bond yields, pointing to churning monetary policy bets as the driving catalyst. For better or worse, speculators will see resolution in the week ahead as the RBA delivers its interest rate decision. A mere four of the 28 economists polled by Bloomberg ahead of the announcement forecast rates to remain at 2.25 percent, with the rest calling for a 25 basis point cut to a record-low 2 percent.

The sudden shift in the market’s conviction in the likelihood of on-coming easing seems a bit odd. Core inflation accelerated in the first quarter after sliding through the second half of 2014. Moreover, investors’ implied medium-term price growth expectations have been on the rise, with the 4-year breakeven rate (the difference between real and nominal bond yields) hitting a five-month high last week.

Further still, Australian economic news-flow seems to have started stabilizing relative to consensus forecasts in mid-April after two months of deterioration. Leading economic surveys of manufacturing- and service-sector growth have also shown notable improvement since the beginning of the year. On the external front, a pick-up in 2-year yields has tracked a rebound in iron ore futures since early April, hinting the prospect of stabilizing demand for Australia’s top export commodity has helped buoy policy views.

Traders’ priced-in expectations reflected in OIS rates put the probability of a 25bps RBA cut at the May meeting at 73 percent. This is nearly identical to the 75 percent probability of easing that the markets foresaw ahead of April’s sit-down, when Governor Glenn Stevens and company opted to remain on hold. That marked a six-year low for AUDUSD and saw prices rise as much as 7.2 percent over subsequent weeks. Choosing to keep rates steady this time around may trigger a similar response.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES