News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • RT @Amena__Bakr: BUT Russia is making a case for increasing supply - delegates #OOTT #opec
  • RT @Amena__Bakr: The ministers are considering rolling over April and May - sources #OOTT #opec
  • Saudi Arabia is considering extending voluntary oil cut of 1mbpd by one month in April - OPEC+ sources #OOTT
  • $EURUSD is currently trading back around the 1.2040 level today, which has been a key level of support over the past month. The pair headed lower yesterday after attempting to rebound back above the 1.2100 level. $EUR $USD https://t.co/ahaAb0htgK
  • it's strange to see $USDJPY like this. prolonged uptrend continuing to stretch despite overbought conditions. RSI overbought on daily, h4 and h1 charts but it's just kept going big test at 107.50 as another psych level comes back into the equation https://t.co/kXRUbx4VzO
  • Commodities Update: As of 15:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 1.64% Gold: 0.05% Silver: -0.61% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/z20HglaOQd
  • tech out of favor of late, but $NAS coming up on a big decision point ~12.5 RSI not quite in oversold territory on Daily, but that hasn't happened here since last March (before the low was in place) $QQQ $NDX https://t.co/mujJRPmDta
  • 🇺🇸 Factory Orders MoM (JAN) Actual: 2.6% Expected: 2.1% Previous: 1.6% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-03-04
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 92.19%, while traders in Germany 30 are at opposite extremes with 69.19%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/bP6TfUZLbt
  • $Gold trying to hold support above the 1700 marker but it's been a two-way fight over the past 24 hours perhaps places even more importance on the Average Hourly Earnings portion of tomorrow's #NFP report https://t.co/PN84yXhK9d https://t.co/UyIPcM7mRo
AUD To Look Past Local Data Yet Remains At Risk On Elevated Volatility

AUD To Look Past Local Data Yet Remains At Risk On Elevated Volatility

David de Ferranti, Currency Analyst
AUD To Look Past Local Data Yet Remains At Risk On Elevated Volatility

Fundamental Forecast for Australian Dollar: Bearish

  • AUD/USD Suffers Intraday Volatility Yet Remains Above 2014 Low
  • Scope For Gains Questionable As Elevated Volatility Caps Carry Demand
  • Downside Risks Centered On Recent Lows Near The 0.8540 Mark

The Australian Dollar witnessed another week of intraday volatility, yet limited follow-through. Local economic data once again proved uneventful for the currency, amid well-anchored RBA policy bets. Indeed the latest Minutes reiterated the central bank’s preference for a “period of stability” for rates and offered few fresh insights into policy makers thinking.

Looking to the week ahead; local Capital Expenditure and New Home Sales data headline the domestic economic calendar. Rampant speculative lending in the housing market has been a concern for policy makers and has created a reluctance to cut rates further. However, the rather volatile upcoming home sales data is unlikely to materially alter the rate outlook. Similarly, it would likely take a significant surprise to the Capex figures in order to change policy bets. This in turn could continue to leave the Aussie to take its cues from elsewhere.

One of the biggest threats to the currency remains the potential for a further pick-up in implied volatility. Measures like the CVIX are near their peaks for the year suggesting traders are anticipating some large price movements amongst the major currencies. Such an environment generally bodes ill for the high-yielding currencies, who stand to outperform in low-volatility settings.

Meanwhile futures positioning suggests the wave of short-selling has turned into a trickle. Yet it remains off the extremes witnessed last year, suggesting more room may exist in the trade.

Downside risks for AUD/USD are centered on the 2014 lows near 0.8540, which if broken may set the pair up for a run on the July 2010 trough near 0.8320.For insights into the US Dollar side of the equation read the weekly forecast here.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES