We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Bitcoin
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • USD/CAD responded downtrend support AND resistance into the open of the month and the immediate focus is on a break of last week’s range for guidance.Get your $USDCAD technical analysis from @MBForex here:https://t.co/UMQy6VxK2i https://t.co/3vw7NWW0NG
  • What is the Strait of Hormuz? How is it the world's most important #oil checkpoint? Find out from @JMcQueenFX here: https://t.co/gRVxRWUnNQ #OOTT #CommoditieswithDailyFX https://t.co/djQFdGg2ew
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 97.95%, while traders in US 500 are at opposite extremes with 76.85%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/L77tlWSifj
  • RT @Schuldensuehner: Recession fears are over. Which might not be good, BBG‘s Authers writes. The last time Google Trends saw a peak in rec…
  • US Equity Close: $SPX -0.32% $DJI -0.37% $NDX -0.4% $RUT -0.4% $VIX +16.3%
  • Canadian #Dollar Outlook: $USDCAD Bears Emerge, but Can they Drive? https://t.co/FUQrFo5Eey https://t.co/ZAif9YLMxL
  • Stay tuned for my Nordic tech outlook for the week ahead: - #EURSEK Testing 8-Month Lows, Eyeing 2013 Uptrend - #GBPNOK Trading at 3-Year Highs: Correction Ahead? - #EURNOK Uptrend on Verge of Collapse - #USDSEK: Has the Pair Bottomed Out?
  • New Zealand ANZ's Truckometer for December slip -1.5% from +2.5% previously
  • Indices Update: As of 21:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: US 500: 0.00% Wall Street: 0.00% Germany 30: -0.20% France 40: -0.23% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/jerYVGkZNW
  • RT @RichFedResearch: Richmond Fed's latest review of data on the national #economy: https://t.co/8qyomGl60w
AUD Eyes 2014 Low As Yield Appeal Wanes Amid Volatility Swell

AUD Eyes 2014 Low As Yield Appeal Wanes Amid Volatility Swell

2014-09-27 04:41:00
David de Ferranti, Currency Analyst
Share:
AUD Eyes 2014 Low As Yield Appeal Wanes Amid Volatility Swell

Fundamental Forecast for Australian Dollar: Bearish

  • AUD/USD Remains Exposed As Volatility Swell Saps Carry Demand
  • High Threshold For Upcoming Regional Data To Catalyze A Recovery
  • Bearish Technical Signals Leave Sights Set On 2014 Lows Near 0.8660

The Australian Dollar faced another week of heavy selling pressure as traders likely unwound carry trades amid of a surge in market volatility. Further, a void of major domestic economic data left the currency lacking bullish fundamental cues to catalyze a recovery.

The coming week brings a raft of local releases including building approvals, trade balance data and retail sales figures. Yet based on recent RBA rhetoric these are unlikely to materially shift policy expectations. This suggests the potential impact on the Aussie from the figures may be muted. In turn the AUD may be left looking elsewhere for sources of support.

Also on the docket will be the release of the official and final HSBC manufacturing figures from Australia’s largest trading partner, China. The upside surprise to last week’s preliminary PMI data failed to leave a lasting positive impact on the currency. This suggests there is a high threshold for Chinese data to generate a rebound for the AUD.

The key risk facing the Aussie remains the prospect of a mass exodus from carry trades. A rebound in measures of implied volatility suggests traders are anticipating large swings amongst the major currencies. This detracts from the attractiveness of the Aussie’s comparative yield advantage and leaves it vulnerable to further weakness.

Traders have their sights set on the 2014 lows for AUD/USD near 0.8660. While the magnitude of recent declines may open the door to some profit-taking, this may slow its descent rather than prompt a reversal. Refer to the US Dollar outlook for insights into the USD side of the equation. – DDF

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.