We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Crude Oil Prices May Turn Lower as Covid-19 Fears Reemerge - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/daily_pieces/commodities/2020/07/07/Crude-Oil-Prices-May-Turn-Lower-as-Covid-19-Fears-Reemerge.html?CHID=9&QPID=917708&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Spivak&utm_campaign=twr #CrudeOil #oott #COVID19
  • Forex trading, which is the act of exchanging fiat currencies, is thought to be centuries old – dating back to the Babylonian period. Learn about the history of Forex here:https://t.co/ePTJlbUP7c https://t.co/bdDrVU9XED
  • 🇮🇹 Retail Sales MoM (MAY) Actual: 25.2% Previous: -10.5% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-07-07
  • Chinese gold reserves $110.76bln at the end of June from $108.29bln at the end of May, according to the PBoC
  • EU Commission - Euro Area GDP 2020 forecast at -8.7% (-7.7% previous) - 2021 GDP forecast at 6.1% (6.3% previous)
  • 🇮🇹 Retail Sales MoM (MAY) Actual: 25.2 Previous: -10.5% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-07-07
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 97.38%, while traders in US 500 are at opposite extremes with 71.32%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/tjZNp13KdF
  • Heads Up:🇮🇹 Retail Sales MoM (MAY) due at 08:00 GMT (15min) Previous: -10.5% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-07-07
  • Commodities Update: As of 07:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Gold: -0.11% Silver: -0.86% Oil - US Crude: -0.92% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/lEzwwnbzPY
  • The continuity seen across these volatility cycles is a good thing. Historical precedence offer a blueprint for identifying conditions supportive for a vol-event to occur, and how they may unfold. Deepen your knowledge of historical volatility here:https://t.co/vg7w10la3j https://t.co/s1hwlaOtlm
AUD To Remain Resilient Amid Drive To Yield and Void of Local Data

AUD To Remain Resilient Amid Drive To Yield and Void of Local Data

2014-08-22 21:27:00
David de Ferranti, Currency Analyst
Share:
AUD To Remain Resilient Amid Drive To Yield and Void of Local Data

AUDUSD [2 HR – 08/22/2014] Chart created using FXCM Marketscope

Fundamental Forecast for Australian Dollar: Neutral

  • AUD/USD Consolidates As Dovish Policy Bets Diminish Amidst Return To Yield
  • Void of Major Regional Data To Leave ‘Period of Stability’ Rates Scenario Intact
  • Carry Demand May Support AUD As Traders Look Past Geopolitical Tensions

The Australian Dollar is heading for another relatively flat finish to the week ahead of the Jackson Hole Symposium. The currency was afforded some support as RBA policy expectations shifted away from the more dovish end of the spectrum. This came on the back of a status-quo set of RBA Meeting Minutes and a relatively optimistic set of comments from Governor Stevens on the domestic economy. Additionally, a broader return to high-yielding instruments helped offset some of the negative cues provided by a deterioration in Chinese economic data.

Looking ahead, RBA policy bets as well as general market risk appetite remain the dominant themes to monitor for the Aussie. On the policy front; a void of local economic data is on the calendar heading into the end of the month. This is likely to leave the ‘period of stability’ baseline scenario for rates intact. Which in turn could keep the currency supported via its yield spread over its major counterparts.

Of course, the appeal of the currency’s interest rate advantage is intrinsically linked to broader risk sentiment. Implied volatility remains near multi-year lows despite a small recovery for the gauge over the past month. This suggests traders are pricing in a relatively small probability of major market swings in the near-term. Such an environment raises the attractiveness of carry trades and bodes well for the Aussie.

Further, the threat posed to investor optimism by ongoing geopolitical turmoil appears to have diminished in recent weeks. Storm clouds continue to loom over Eastern Europe and the Middle East. Yet traders seem to have become desensitized to the latest flare-ups. This suggests it would likely take a material escalation in the regional turmoil to threaten the resilience of the Australian Dollar.

Given the lack of major local events the main risks of the AUD/USD breaking from its recent range are likely to stem from its US counterpart. Refer to the US Dollar outlook for insights into how the USD side of the equation may influence the pair.

Written by David de Ferranti, Currency Analyst, DailyFX

To receive David’sanalysis directly via email, please sign up here

Contact and follow David on Twitter: @DaviddeFe

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.