News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
Wall Street
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Consolidation or bull flag? A bull flag is a continuation pattern that occurs as a brief pause in the trend following a strong price move higher. Learn how to better spot these formations here: https://t.co/yOEvLjKnct https://t.co/uCaWQiu4Ly
  • Crude and Brent oil are on track to extend higher as Gulf Coast supply disruptions and a positive OPEC report bolster sentiment. Uranium is on a massive surge, aided by the famous Wall Street Bets group. Get your market update from @FxWestwater here:https://t.co/XrpV0jcy8e https://t.co/g2To3LmUah
  • RT @michaeljburry: Read thread.
  • The Australian Dollar has retraced from August lows when looking at AUD/JPY and AUD/CAD. However, the AUD/NZD downtrend is intact, will a reversal there appear as well? Find out: https://t.co/8LmgqLLGJO https://t.co/AueigVsuk4
  • The S&P 500, Dow Jones and DAX 30 could be at risk of falling as retail traders continue increasing their upside exposure in these indices. What are the key technical levels to watch for? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/OJByiwIppr https://t.co/P1iOONG90N
  • The US Dollar continues to hold its ground against most ASEAN currencies as recent downtrends lose momentum. What is the road ahead for USD/SGD, USD/THB, USD/PHP and USD/IDR? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/UcleaZEAaW https://t.co/62bGLvt8fE
  • The Canadian Dollar has been caught in broad ranges against the Euro and the US Dollar, but can the upside bias in USD/CAD and EUR/CAD prolong? Find out here:https://t.co/8DubboXsjv https://t.co/A0sIYo2iP1
  • Want to hear my thoughts on the US Dollar? Check out yesterday's recording with #AuzBiz hosted by @KaraOrdway on 'The Trade' We discussed a #USD index, Treasury yields, $USDJPY, $AUDUSD and $NZDUSD https://t.co/yxwquL1btp https://t.co/RtWjlN6kpv
  • Gold has plunged nearly 5% off the Monthly high with the sell-off now probing key weekly support here at 1738/47- looking for a pivot here with the Fed interest rate decision on tap. Get your $XAUUSD market update from @MBForex here:https://t.co/Vnxi41lETt https://t.co/FyZuHNzsU3
  • Feels like the market has been front-running next week’s FOMC announcement, which will reveal updated dot plot projections. Expectations clearly set for a more hawkish shift in guidance. That said, if the Fed does not deliver, US Dollar bulls could be disappointed. $USD $DXY https://t.co/o2v6ibac3L
Australian Dollar at Risk on Static RBA, Upbeat US News-Flow

Australian Dollar at Risk on Static RBA, Upbeat US News-Flow

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
Australian-Dollar-at-Risk-on-Static-RBA-Upbeat-US-News-Flow_body_Picture_5.png, Australian Dollar at Risk on Static RBA, Upbeat US News-Flow

Fundamental Forecast for Australian Dollar: Neutral

  • RBA Rate Decision May Be a Nonevent as “Period of Stability“ Continues
  • AUD/USD May Fall as Upbeat US Data Erodes Aussie’s Yield Advantage
  • Help Time Key Turning Points for the Australian Dollar with DailyFX SSI

The Australian Dollar faces a whirlwind of event risk in the week ahead, with high-profile event risk lining up domestically and on the external front. A monetary policy announcement from the RBA uncharacteristically represents the least impactful of the week’s major inflection points. The central bank has advocated a period of policy stability for two consecutive meetings and there is little reason to suspect its calculus has materially changed.

Data from Citigroup shows Australian economic news-flow materially improved relative to expectations in March, but performance seems far from broad-based. Leading indicators from the Australian Industry Group (AiG) point to strength in services but likewise reveal an anemic manufacturing sector and slumping construction activity. At the very least, the RBA is likely to want to see several months of robust outcomes to rethink the economy’s medium-term trajectory. With that in mind, the April rate decision is likely to do little besides reinforcing the status quo.

Where the RBA may fall short, the US economic calendar offers plenty of opportunities for volatility. A busy docket featuring manufacturing and services ISM figures and February’s Factory Orders report culminates in the much-anticipated Employment data set. Improvements are expected across the board, with the closely monitored Nonfarm Payrolls print expected to hit the pivotal 200,000 monthly jobs gain threshold once again. That would amount to the strongest outcome since November.

US economic data outcomes have noticeably stabilized relative to consensus forecasts over the past two weeks having deteriorated dramatically since mid-January. That hints the soft patch in the recovery noted in the first half of the year has been priced in to analysts’ outlook, opening the door for news-flow to surprise on the upside. This against a backdrop of standstill at the RBA may erode the Aussie’s perceived policy advantage against its US namesake. AUD/USD has noticeably rebuilt its correlation with the Australia-US front-end bond yield spread, meaning such a scenario stands to push the pair lower.

-IS

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES