News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
Oil - US Crude
Wall Street
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • The London trading session accounts for around 35% of total average forex turnover*, the largest amount relative to its peers. The London forex session overlaps with the New York session. Learn about trading the London forex session here:
  • Italian PM Conte confirms to cabinet that he is resigning - government source
  • BoJ's Kuroda says monetary policy does have some limits in trying to achieve inflation target $JPY
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 100.00%, while traders in EUR/JPY are at opposite extremes with 66.22%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX:
  • Yen, Dollar May Extend Rise as Stocks Fall After China Drains Liquidity - #Dollar #jpy #China #PBOC
  • What is your forex trading style? Take the quiz and find out:
  • Commodities Update: As of 08:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 0.13% Gold: 0.05% Oil - US Crude: -0.36% View the performance of all markets via
  • 'We're going on bear hunt....'
  • Forex Update: As of 08:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇯🇵JPY: -0.02% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.08% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.10% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.22% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.33% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.38% View the performance of all markets via
  • Indices Update: As of 08:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Germany 30: 0.24% FTSE 100: 0.16% France 40: -0.05% Wall Street: -0.46% US 500: -0.54% View the performance of all markets via
Australian Dollar Expected to Recover Absent Fed Interference

Australian Dollar Expected to Recover Absent Fed Interference

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
Forex_Australian_Dollar_Expected_to_Recover_Absent_Fed_Interference_body_Picture_5.png, Australian Dollar Expected to Recover Absent Fed Interference

Fundamental Forecast for Australian Dollar: Bullish

To receive Ilya's analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

The outline of the argument in favor of a significant Australian Dollar recovery remains unchanged from what we have discussed over recent weeks. Stabilization in Chinese economic news-flow has helped drive moderation in the RBA interest rate cut outlook. This against a backdrop of overextended net-short speculative positioning continues to argue for a bounce. Indeed, the latest COT figures suggest a cautious unwinding may have already begun. Technical positioning appeared attractive last week and we enteredlong.

Traders are now pricing in a mere 6 percent probability of another rate cut at the September policy meeting (according to data from Credit Suisse). More noteworthy still, a dramatic improvement in the 1-year outlook over recent weeks shows investors to no longer expect any further easing over the next 12 months. The stock of policy-shaping news-flow is relatively light in the coming days, suggesting a meaningfully dovish shift in the markets’ forecast is unlikely. July’s HIA Home Sales and Private Sector Credit figures as well as the second-quarter Capital Expenditure print round out the docket.

The threat of interference from external factors remains acute however. Speculation surrounding the Federal Reserve’s intentions to “taper” the size of its monthly stimulus effort remains a key consideration. Minutes from July’s FOMC meeting seemed to reinforce status-quo expectations of a small $10 billion reduction in September. The spotlight is now on commentary from the Jackson Hole Economic Summit running throughout the weekend, followed by a busy schedule of official commentary throughout the week. FOMC voting members John Williams and James Bullard as well as non-voter Jeffrey Lacker are all on tap.

The Australian Dollar price action has been somewhat detached from sentiment appetite trends recently, with near-term correlation studies between the currency and the benchmark S&P 500 stock index showing negligible readings. That can rapidly change if policy speeches in Wyoming or commentary throughout the week give sentiment a clear, well-supported fundamental bearing. A strong dovish message countering consensus Fed policy expectations may produce a broad-based swell in risk appetite that pulls the Aussie higher, but a hawkish one could have an equally negative impact as sentiment-geared assets sink.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.