News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
Wall Street
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • You're Not The Only One Bored Of 'New' Apple iPhones https://t.co/T3ZXZ8wplw via @IBDinvestors
  • $USDCAD big test, right at the Sept. high https://t.co/D9baX3BGXf https://t.co/Sg2ySGIIY8
  • just about an hour later $USDCAD https://t.co/D9baX3BGXf https://t.co/B0c71AkZTl
  • Hedging Evergrande (3333 HK) is reportedly a near impossible task
  • Given there is a substantial risk from China's Evergrande situation with a possible technical default at the start of next week, I'll be watching Bitcoin as a 'risk' measure over the weekend. Here versus SPX as Shanghai Comp is 'tended to' https://t.co/OoudsWHFPy
  • The latest batch of US economic data suggests the economy is weathering delta variant concerns, increasing odds for a Fed taper announcement shortly. Get your market update from @CVecchioFX here:https://t.co/aioT8UU4IJ https://t.co/BhMSqkkV0E
  • $USD support hold at higher low $DXY now breakout after U of Mich Focus now shifts to the Fed for next week's rate decision. Quarterly meeting, so also getting an updated dot plot matrix and SEP https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/session_briefing/daily_fundamentals/2021/09/17/USD-price-action-us-dollar-rallies-to-sept-high-focus-shifts-to-the-Fed.html https://t.co/oJdrBqBkfp https://t.co/EsSn4XEB1g
  • another hit at resistance $ES $SPY $SPX that zone is 5 for 5 this week, catching resistance each day m-f (this morning was pre-us open) https://t.co/cchd5Rr92S https://t.co/wwXugBgE8m
  • US headline consumer sentiment survey from UofM picks up but less than expected 71 vs 72 expected and 70.3 previously. Expectations component advances to 67.1 from 65.1. Inflation forecasts still pushing their highs. Tepid Dollar and emini $SPX futures response thus far
  • 🇺🇸 Michigan Inflation Expectations Prel (SEP) Actual: 4.7% Previous: 4.6% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-09-17
Australian Dollar Recovery Expected to Continue vs. Majors

Australian Dollar Recovery Expected to Continue vs. Majors

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
Forex_Australian_Dollar_Recovery_Expected_to_Continue_vs_Majors__body_Picture_5.png, Australian Dollar Recovery Expected to Continue vs. Majors

Fundamental Forecast for Australian Dollar: Bullish

Capitalize on Shifts in Market Mood with the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index.

The Australian Dollar outperformed last week, adding a hefty 3.4 percent against its US namesake to produce the strongest 5-day rally in 20 months. The move is all the more impressive considering it was produced against the backdrop of an interest rate cut from the RBA and a disappointing set of Employment figures that showed the economy shed 10,200 jobs in July, yielding the worst result in four months.

While traders’ response to further easing was to be expected, resilience following the jobs data is of interest considering the details of the report were not much more encouraging than the headline figure. Full-time and part-time hiring both declined and a slight drop in the unemployment rate seems to have owed to a drop in the participation rate rather than a robust labor market. Furthermore, June’s figures were revised broadly lower.

Such counter-intuitive performance seems to reflect a deceleration in capital flows feeding the Aussie-short trade. Put simply, those market participants that intended to be short at current levels are already there, meaning the down trend is running dry on fuel needed to perpetuate itself. Indeed, while the latest COT data set shows net speculative shorts hit another record high, the week-on-week growth rate of anti-AUD exposure has dramatically declined.

Furthermore, the breakdown in the Aussie over recent months has closely tracked the deterioration in the relative monetary policy outlook, which in turn appears to have emerged as the markets aggressively slashed their outlook for Chinese economic growth. With this in mind, it’s noteworthy that Chinese economic news-flow appears to be stabilizing relative to expectations. If this helps halt the slide in Chinese growth bets, it may likewise scatter calls for further RBA easing in the near term and set the stage for Aussie gains.

Indeed, this dynamic was on full display in price action last week after China released encouraging trade, inflation and industrial production figures.Imports rose by 10.9 percent, marking the largest year-on-year increase in three months and hinting demand from Australia’s top trading partner may be far more resilient than expected. Meanwhile, soft CPI and PPI readings signaled greater room for Beijing to introduce stimulus and Industrial Production posted a 9.7 year-on-year increase, marking the strongest gain in five months.

The week ahead seems to offer a relatively clear path for an Aussie recovery to continue. The Australian economic docket features second-tier event risk and the Chinese calendar is effectively blank. US news-flow is worthy of consideration in the event that speculation about the Fed’s intention to “taper” QE asset purchases produces a strong response from sentiment trends that spills over into AUD price action. CPI, Retail Sales and the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence gauge are all due to cross the wires. The correlation between the Australian unit and benchmark stock indexes (including the S&P 500 and the MSCI World gauge) has unraveled on short-term studies however, hinting the currency may be little-scathed even if risk appetite sours.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES