We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Weekly Strategy Webinar starting in 13mins! https://t.co/lxd5fZnn4H
  • Forex Update: As of 12:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇦🇺AUD: 0.35% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.26% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.24% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.19% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.21% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.23% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/ZggGcyxXJq
  • 🇮🇳 Inflation Rate YoY (JUN) Actual: 6.09% Expected: 5.3% Previous: 5.91% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-07-13
  • Hey traders! I'm sure you've all heard about trend trading. Sharpen your knowledge here: https://t.co/jkliL5sxj7 https://t.co/0MG5XPiDF6
  • Heads Up:🇮🇳 Inflation Rate YoY (JUN) due at 12:00 GMT (15min) Expected: 5.3% Previous: 5.91% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-07-13
  • RT @DanielGMoss: #Silver surging to fresh yearly highs as the RSI bursts into overbought territory Significant change in sentiment as pri…
  • Join @MBForex at 8:30 AM ET/12:30 PM GMT for his weekly strategy #webinar Register here: https://t.co/VAnAfZU02T https://t.co/fu8UmwtSkz
  • Heads Up:🇧🇷 BCB Focus Market Readout due at 11:30 GMT (15min) https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-07-13
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 96.95%, while traders in US 500 are at opposite extremes with 73.16%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/PQBbkVhsYC
  • Tune in to @CVecchioFX 's #webinar at 7:30 AM ET/11:30 AM GMT for insight on major event risk in the week ahead. Register here: https://t.co/X8TIhpKxtF https://t.co/cY4d8HuulB
Australian Dollar Outlook Clouded Ahead of RBA Rate Decision

Australian Dollar Outlook Clouded Ahead of RBA Rate Decision

2013-03-09 01:42:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
Share:
Australian_Dollar_Outlook_Clouded_Ahead_of_RBA_Rate_Decision_body_Picture_1.png, Australian Dollar Outlook Clouded Ahead of RBA Rate Decision

Australian Dollar Outlook Clouded Ahead of RBA Rate Decision

Fundamental Forecast for Australian Dollar: Neutral

All eyes are on the Reserve Bank of Australia in the week ahead, with traders facing conflicting cues about the likelihood of another interest rate cut. Two weeks ago, RBA Governor Glenn Stevens appeared to play down the need for further easing, saying, “good deal of stimulus [is already] in the pipeline”. Last week however, Deputy Governor Guy Debelle countered that the central bank may use rate cuts to counter Australian Dollar strength.

On the economic data front, the landscape has been little changed since February’s policy meeting. Australian fundamental news-flow has run at a broadly even keel relative to economists’ expectations according to data compiled by Citigroup. Data releases from China – Australia’s top trading partner and a decisive source of demand for the country’s pivotal mining sector – have likewise painted a picture of steady growth.

For their part, traders appear to be leaning against a rate hike this time around, with the priced-in probability of a 25bps reduction in the baseline lending rate down to 17 percent now compared with as much as 57 percent following February’s sit-down (according to Credit Suisse). One-year expectations still call for a dovish lean however, with investors baking in a further 25-50bps in further easing by this time in 2014.

On balance, this makes for a clouded landscape ahead of the rate decision, which seemingly assures little besides the likelihood of volatility in the announcement’s aftermath as traders scramble to reposition their portfolios. If Glenn Stevens and company opt to keep the benchmark lending rate at 3 percent as expected, the focus will shift to the policy statement and any clues that can be gleaned therein about where the RBA plans to steer from here.

Elsewhere on the docket, fourth-quarter GDP figures are set to show the economy added 0.6 percent in the three months through December 2012, marking a slight improvement from the 0.5 percent recorded in the prior period. January’s Trade Balance, Retail Sales and Building Approvals numbers are also on tap. -IS

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.