0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bullish
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • What are some trading mistakes @nickcawley1 made during his career and what did he learn from them? Find out: https://t.co/XOTxEejF5O
  • Commodities Update: As of 07:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 0.62% Gold: -1.24% Silver: -3.60% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/lBG9B5iYSk
  • Forex Update: As of 07:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇦🇺AUD: 0.19% 🇳🇿NZD: 0.19% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.06% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.04% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.08% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.23% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/jOgEIxjTiT
  • Indices Update: As of 07:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: France 40: 0.85% Germany 30: 0.84% FTSE 100: 0.65% Wall Street: 0.23% US 500: 0.10% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/CIkPYnBu5L
  • #Gold prices are sinking, dipping back below the $2k/oz figure as inflation expectations continue to ease following Friday's US jobs data. The report showed faster job creation and higher wage growth, cooling Fed stimulus bets
  • Why financial market traders must monitor both monetary and fiscal policy? Find out from @MartinSEssex here:https://t.co/Fkzk88Y5gm https://t.co/D5upwqIsgB
  • 🇬🇧 Claimant Count Change (JUL) Actual: 94.4K Expected: 10K Previous: -28.1K https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-08-11
  • 🇬🇧 Employment Change (MAY) Actual: -220K Expected: -288K Previous: -126K https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-08-11
  • 🇬🇧 Average Earnings excl. Bonus (JUN) Actual: -0.2% Expected: -0.1% Previous: 0.7% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-08-11
  • 🇬🇧 Average Earnings incl. Bonus (JUN) Actual: -1.2% Expected: -1.1% Previous: -0.3% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-08-11
Forex Analysis: Australian Dollar at Risk as Market Mood Turns Sour

Forex Analysis: Australian Dollar at Risk as Market Mood Turns Sour

2013-01-26 05:24:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
Share:
Forex_Analysis_Australian_Dollar_at_Risk_as_Market_Mood_Turns_Sour_body_Picture_5.png, Forex Analysis: Australian Dollar at Risk as Market Mood Turns Sour

Fundamental Forecast for Australian Dollar: Bearish

A relatively quiet domestic economic calendar will once again see the Australian Dollar looking outward for directional guidance in the week ahead. The outlook for US economic growth remains a critical unknown in forecasting the overall macroeconomic environment and investors will be treated to a wealth of relevant event risk to set the stage for the near- to medium-term environment over the coming days. Separately, the outlook for RBA monetary policy in the run-up to next month’s policy announcement will be informed by another high-profile data point from China, Australia’s largest trading partner and a critical driver of its mining sector.

In the US, the spotlight initially turns to fourth-quarter GDP figures, where economists expect to see that output added 1.2 percent compared with a 3.1 percent increase in the three months through September 2012. This is followed by the FOMC monetary policy announcement. Ben Bernanke and company seem overwhelmingly unlikely to introduce anything new into the policy mix after December’s major reshuffling. The rhetoric of the policy statement may take a stronger dovish tone however if the central bank sees a need to talk down expectations of an early unwinding of stimulus after the adoption of the “Evans rule”. Finally, January’s employment (Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate) and manufacturing (ISM) metrics are expected to print closely in line with the prior month’s results.

On balance, this makes for a potentially vulnerable environment. Slowing growth and a dour statement from the Fed may begin to pour cold water on buoyant sentiment trends. Meanwhile, US economic data has increasingly fallen short of expectations since late December (according to data from Citigroup). If this trend continues, a disappointing set of NFP and ISM figures could tip the scales toward outright risk aversion. Indeed, while lackluster performance in the world’s largest economy is negative for the markets’ mood in its own right, it is all the more ominous considering the current crop of data releases sets the stage for the upcoming fight over “sequester” spending cuts in Washington DC and shapes perceptions of resilience in the face of further austerity.

The Australian Dollar continues to show a meaningful overall correlation to risk appetite trends (as tracked by the MSCI World Stock Index). This means the treacherous road ahead on the sentiment front threatens to unleash selling pressure upon the high-yielding currency. January’s Chinese Manufacturing PMI figures – both the official kind and those from HSBC – stand to offer a countervailing force to this dynamic, showing industrial-sector growth continues to recover. That bodes well for the Aussie, suggesting the RBA may be reluctant to cut rates as the formative mining sector enjoys healthy demand from its largest overseas customer. Follow-through may be lackluster however, yielding little besides a short-term term advance. Evidence of a Chinese rebound has been filtering into asset prices at least since the beginning of the month while traders’ priced-in outlook already leans toward a “hold” RBA decision next month, so markets may find little to surprise them in the PMI roundup.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.