We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Bullish
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • The $USD breakdown has taken the index into confluence support at the objective yearly open. Get your USD technical analysis from @MBForex here: https://t.co/A16XEv6n4d https://t.co/GzEp3gCAe5
  • US equities continue to run higher with the Nasdaq 100 setting a fresh all-time-high, not even three months after giving back almost a third of its value in about a month. Get your #Nasdaq technical analysis from @JStanleyFX here: https://t.co/1LI54uvI8x https://t.co/e9FvSLqfaA
  • The US Dollar may be at risk to losses against some of its #ASEAN counterparts. USD/SGD, USD/PHP, USD/MYR and USD/IDR have recently broken to the downside. Will losses continue? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/0RTlj6maTT https://t.co/UyQ4i0AihI
  • The British Pound technical outlook still seems to favor the downside. GBP/CAD may pressure key rising support from August as GBP/AUD could prolong its downtrend. GBP/CHF may fall. Get your $GBP market update from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/hBOpDKXmfW https://t.co/AJlT2YKeCu
  • USD/JPY is approaching medium-term uptrend resistance and while the outlook remains constructive, the advance may be vulnerable near-term while below confluence resistance. Get your $USDJPY technical analysis from @MBForex here: https://t.co/93D7AyhHtG https://t.co/KQcLLrkMP3
  • AUD/USD has had the most impressive show of trend over the past couple of months with the pair gaining almost 1500 pips from the March low. Get your $AUDUSD technical analysis from @JStanleyFX here: https://t.co/vLz4Rpln3u https://t.co/AOwnJja5V8
  • Has the #Euro been saved? Find out from @CVecchioFX here: https://t.co/eiXfOTyGa6 https://t.co/AyRiYpb4cN
  • U.S. Market Analyst at https://t.co/JsVsSmefgR, Shain Vernier covers - ✔️ Safe haven assets in volatile markets ✔️ Central banks and governments ✔️ How will commodities trade in a recession Only on Trading Global Markets Decoded #podcast. Tune in here: https://t.co/1UmEzEbwiy https://t.co/ygwjGNvS61
  • The $USD, Euro, British Pound and Australian Dollar will all be at the mercy of political developments in Asia, Europe and North America this week. An avalanche of PMI data will set the backdrop. Find out from @ZabelinDimitri here: https://t.co/L8cfAgVx94 https://t.co/THWhPAS6AM
  • The price of #gold plunged 1% immediately after the stunning US jobs report crossed the wires. Get your market update from @RichDvorakFX here: https://t.co/8i0L6YIqjy https://t.co/y9dIXazJf9
Forex Analysis: Australian Dollar Eyes China Data, Risk Trends for Cues

Forex Analysis: Australian Dollar Eyes China Data, Risk Trends for Cues

2012-12-08 05:43:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
Share:
Australian_Dollar_Eyes_China_Data_Risk_Trends_for_Cues_body_Picture_1.png, Forex Analysis: Australian Dollar Eyes China Data, Risk Trends for Cues

Fundamental Forecast for Australian Dollar: Bearish

Australia’s domestic economic calendar is quiet in the week ahead but an early dose of high-profile Chinese releases stands to set the tone for price action. November’s CPI reading is expected to put the year-on-year inflation rate at 2.1 percent, the highest in five months. Meanwhile, Industrial Production is expected to languish in single digits compared with the historical average of about 14 percent while exports expand at the weakest pace since August. Such outcomes bode ill for Australia’s crucial mining sector, which relies heavily on Chinese demand, and put downward pressure on the Aussie as forex traders rebuild near-term RBA rate cut expectations.

Later in the week, larger risk trends come into focus. Prices continue to show a significant correlation with the S&P 500 – a proxy for market-wide sentiment trends – exposing the Aussie to a busy docket of event risk. A series of Eurozone summits keeps the debt crisis in the headlines. The latest tranche of Greece’s bailout is up for review on Thursday against the backdrop of a larger EU leaders’ summit due to tackle a host of other thorny issues dealing with deepening the monetary union on the basis of President Herman Van Rompuy’s “building blocks” proposal. This month’s sit-down has long been billed as the time for final agreements to emerge after months of haggling, meaning traders will look for game-changing headlines to emerge. If the summit fizzles once again, risk sentiment is likely to suffer and punish the Australian Dollar in the process.

On the global economic growth front, all eyes are on the Federal Reserve monetary policy announcement. Significant changes in the policy mix appear unlikely. A potent dose of volatility may still emerge however as traders parse an updated set of economic projections from the rate-setting committee and tune into Chairman Ben Bernanke’s press conference following the policy announcement. A pessimistic message on growth trends in the world’s largest economy stands to undermine risk and send the Aussie lower (and vice versa).

Meanwhile, ongoing negotiations to avert the so-called “fiscal cliff” – a set of spending cuts and tax hikes due to trigger at the turn of the calendar year – continue to capture investors’ attention. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates the burst of austerity – if left to trigger as scheduled – is likely to tip the US back into recession in the first six months of 2013. US lawmakers from both side of the aisle have tried to project optimism in recent weeks but a substantive breakthrough remains elusive. Continued failure to get something meaningful done as the deadline to do so draws closer may compound risk aversion and weigh on the Aussie.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.