We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Wall Street
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Heads Up:🇩🇪 GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final due at 06:00 GMT (15min) Expected: -2.2% Previous: -0.1% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-05-25
  • Heads Up:🇩🇪 GDP Growth Rate YoY Final due at 06:00 GMT (15min) Expected: -2.3% Previous: 0.4% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-05-25
  • Crude oil sold-off Friday on news that China is looking to introduce stringent new security laws in Hong Kong, damaging global risk appetite. Get your #oil technical analysis from @nickcawley1 here: https://t.co/5DuW1rMOmX #OOTT https://t.co/EPgg3c0S54
  • 🇯🇵 Coincident Index Final Actual: 90.2 Expected: 90.5 Previous: 95.4 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-05-25
  • 🇯🇵 Leading Economic Index Final Actual: 84.7 Expected: 83.8 Previous: 91.9 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-05-25
  • Heads Up:🇯🇵 Coincident Index Final due at 05:00 GMT (15min) Expected: 90.5 Previous: 95.4 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-05-25
  • Heads Up:🇯🇵 Leading Economic Index Final due at 05:00 GMT (15min) Expected: 83.8 Previous: 91.9 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-05-25
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 96.11%, while traders in US 500 are at opposite extremes with 78.77%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/iDDH4lPCbr
  • New Zealand: PM Ardern announces limit for social gatherings will increase to 100 people effective May 29 and will consider moving to Alert Level 1 no later than June 22.
  • Forex Update: As of 04:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇨🇦CAD: 0.13% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.11% 🇳🇿NZD: 0.02% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.08% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.08% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.12% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/keYyC5HU2W
Australian Dollar May Shun Fundamentals Amid Headline-Driven Market

Australian Dollar May Shun Fundamentals Amid Headline-Driven Market

2012-05-25 22:57:00
David Song, Strategist
Share:
Australian_Dollar_May_Shun_Fundamentals_Amid_Headline-Driven_Market_body_Picture_1.png, Australian Dollar May Shun Fundamentals Amid Headline-Driven Market

Fundamental Forecast for Australian Dollar: Bearish

The Australian dollar slipped to a fresh yearly low of 0.9689 as market participants continued to scale back their appetite for risk, and the high-yielding currency may face additional headwinds next week should the flight to safety gather pace. Although the relative strength index on the AUDUSD continues to show an oversold signal, we need to see the oscillator climb back above 30 to see a meaningful correction in the exchange rate, and the pair may continue to fall back towards the 0.9600 figure as it searches for support.

Nevertheless, the economic docket for the following week is expected to show a rebound in building activity paired with a rise in business investments, a round of positive developments may prop up the Australian dollar, but we remain bearish against the high-yielding currency as market participants see the Reserve Bank of Australia expanding monetary policy further in the second-half of the year. According to Credit Suisse overnight index swaps, investors are now pricing a 35% chance for a 50bp rate cut in June versus the 73% seen during the previous week, while borrowing costs are still projected to fall by more than 125bp over the next 12-months as the central bank highlights a weakened outlook for the $1T economy. With RBA Governor Glenn Stevens scheduled to speak at the beginning of the following week, a fresh batch of dovish commentary may overshadow positive developments coming out of the region, and we may see the aussie-dollar extend the decline from earlier this month as interest rate expectations deteriorate.

As the AUDUSD holds above the November low (0.9662), there’s speculation that the aussie-dollar is carving out a short-term bottom going into the end of May, but the headline-driven market may continue to push the exchange rate lower as the ongoing turmoil in the world economy saps risk-taking behavior. In turn, we may see the AUDUSD mark fresh lows in the week ahead, with an RSI break above 30 suggesting that a correction may be under way. - DS

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.