We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bullish
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Risk appetite evaporates on US-China headline. Trump says press conference regarding China coming tomorrow $DJI https://t.co/7Poy62Lpgp
  • Is there clarity on time of day? There is a material change in the risk around the event whether it is pre-NY open (gap and steady), during NY trade (volatility and steady) or after hours (let fear/greed build over the weekend for a Monday charge) https://t.co/wUSO6d44ns
  • Trump says press conference on China will be held Friday - BBG
  • There is a dramatic departure between yield curve pricing for a recession and other measures of near-term growth; the Q2’20 Atlanta Fed GDPNow is extremely alarming.Get your market update from @CVecchioFX here: https://t.co/eMd3T8EwDO https://t.co/joAVurkmJP
  • US Treasury Yields: 2-Year: 0.174% 3-Year: 0.220% 5-Year: 0.346% 7-Year: 0.537% 10-Year: 0.705% 30-Year: 1.474% $TNX
  • White House Economic Advisor Hassett says some workers going back to their jobs is building confidence $DXY $SPX
  • Gold Price Outlook: XAU Overbought as Cycles Drive the Bullish Trend https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/session_briefing/daily_fundamentals/2020/05/28/Gold-Price-Outlook-XAU-Overbought-as-Cycles-Drive-the-Bullish-JS-Trend.html $Gold https://t.co/ntbvPQTHF9
  • Commodities Update: As of 18:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 0.34% Gold: 0.26% Oil - US Crude: -0.02% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/yvJX18QY14
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 96.91%, while traders in US 500 are at opposite extremes with 74.73%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/l7878VS4m7
  • As long as this moves forward, the verbal (Twitter) threats of action between the US and China will garner less and less actual market movement https://t.co/pvGOJuAG4N
Australian Dollar Vulnerable To Risk Trends, Rate Expectations

Australian Dollar Vulnerable To Risk Trends, Rate Expectations

2012-05-18 22:53:00
David Song, Strategist
Share:
Australian_Dollar_Vulnerable_To_Risk_Trends_Rate_Expectations_body_Picture_50.png, Australian Dollar Vulnerable To Risk Trends, Rate Expectations

Fundamental Forecast for Australian Dollar: Bearish

The Australian dollar slipped to a fresh yearly low of 0.9794 as traders scaled back their appetite for risk, and the high-yielding currency may face additional headwinds in the week ahead as investor confidence remains frail. Beyond the negative headlines surrounding Europe, the slowing recovery in China – Australia’s largest trading partner – certainly cast a dour outlook for the $1T economy , and the fundamental developments on tap for the following week may stoke fears of a ‘hard landing’ amid the ongoing weakness in manufacturing activity.

After lowering the reserve requirement ratio by 50bp, People’s Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan called for further reforms amid the ‘structural imbalances’ in the capital markets, and the central bank is widely expected to take additional steps later this year in an effort to engineer a ‘soft landing.’ In turn, the Reserve Bank of Australia is widely expected to follow suit, and we may see the central bank continue to embark on a very aggressive path as the outlook for growth and inflation deteriorates. According to Credit Suisse overnight index swaps, market participants are pricing a 73% chance for another 50bp rate cut in June, while borrowing costs are expected to fall by more than 125bp over the next 12-months as Governor Glenn Stevens adopts a highlight dovish tone for monetary policy. In contrast, 25 of the 28 economists polled by Bloomberg News see the RBA keeping the interest rate on hold next month, and we may see the central bank resume its easing cycle in the second-half of the year as the outlook for global growth remains clouded with high uncertainty.

Although the AUDUSD remains oversold, we expected to see further declines in the exchange rate until the relative strength index crosses back above 30, and the bearish sentiment underlining the high-yielding currency should gather pace next week as the flight to safety gathers pace. At the same time, interest rate expectations may deteriorate further as we’re expecting to see more dismal data coming out of China, the aussie-dollar may continue to give back the rebound from back in November as it struggles to find support. – DS

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.