News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 96.81%, while traders in EUR/USD are at opposite extremes with 72.76%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/AqbJxwy3OI
  • Indices Update: As of 18:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: US 500: 1.08% Wall Street: 0.93% Germany 30: 0.13% FTSE 100: 0.10% France 40: 0.07% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/YdA0uOcvxT
  • Overnight, RBA’s Kent had reiterated the message by the RBA Governor last week, that more monetary easing is on its way. Get your $AUDUSD market update from @JMcQueenFX here:https://t.co/Jq1ejeUf4Q https://t.co/16nQEIwC9i
  • webinar time... https://www.dailyfx.com/webinars/455809179 topics up for discussion today: 1) USD - do something 2) Stocks supported on stimulus hopes 3) Crosses cleaning up a bit? starting right meow https://www.dailyfx.com/webinars/455809179 https://t.co/zj9XN14BDv
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 96.82%, while traders in EUR/USD are at opposite extremes with 72.47%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/qMPdBfUArS
  • Heads Up:🇺🇸 Fed Evans Speech due at 17:00 GMT (15min) https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-10-20
  • House Speaker Nancy Pelosi: -Optimistic for stimulus deal -Trump administration has come a long way toward reaching an agreement -Want to crush the virus -Need to improve health care language on stimulus bill -Will speak with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin today at 3PM ET
  • Netflix earnings is due after the close today. Despite its being a vaunted FAANG member, I think it will draw less attention than tomorrow's Tesla update which has worked its way even higher into the speculative echelon. Personally, I put more on CSX as a reflection of economy.
  • Commodities Update: As of 16:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 1.27% Oil - US Crude: 0.31% Gold: 0.26% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/pLRpke3JAJ
  • The bull market in gold has been in correction mode since it peaked in early August, and while it appears is a healthy retracement at this juncture, it is unclear just how much longer it will last. Get your $XAUUSD technical analysis from @PaulRobinsonFX :https://t.co/5etzhvsLuC https://t.co/aE7SaPPwih
Australian Dollar’s Fate Hinges on RBA Rate Decision

Australian Dollar’s Fate Hinges on RBA Rate Decision

2012-03-30 21:02:00
Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist
Share:
Australian_Dollars_Fate_Hinges_on_RBA_Rate_Decision_body_Picture_1.png, Australian Dollar’s Fate Hinges on RBA Rate Decision

Fundamental Forecast for Australian Dollar: Neutral

The Australian Dollar was the worst performing major currency this week, losing 1.10 percent to the U.S. Dollar and 1.95 percent to the best performer, the British Pound. March was not a kind month to the Australian Dollar, in which it depreciated by 1.52 percent against the Japanese Yen, 3.66 percent against the U.S. Dollar, and 4.22 percent against the British Pound. The Aussie’s weakness across the board – it was the worst performing major in March – comes on the heels of a string of poor Chinese data and a more dovish Reserve Bank of Australia. Both factors will be influential this week, with more attention paid to the latter.

Before we delve into the RBA’s policy meeting on Tuesday, there are a number of other events that are worth paying attention to. Building approvals for February are expected to show some growth relative to recent trends, but a continued deterioration overall. The housing market is a paramount concern for policy makers, for good reason: housing prices fell for most of 2011, but for the end of the year. Elsewhere, both retail sales and trade balance figures for February are forecasted to show an improvement (emphasis on the latter).

However, while these events are important, they pale in comparison to the RBA rate decision on Tuesday. According to a Bloomberg News survey, the RBA is expected to keep rates on hold at 4.25 percent, after cutting rates in both November and December. Yields are telling us a different story. The Australian 10-year government bond settled at 4.076 percent on Friday; when rates, even on the longer-end of the yield curve start to move below the central bank’s cash target rate, it is often a sign that market participants are pricing in a more dovish policy. Credit Suisse Overnight Index Swaps are pricing in a 44.0 percent chance of a 25-basis point rate cut on Tuesday, up from 27.0 percent at the beginning of the week at 15.0 percent at the beginning of the month.

The Aussie has tracked these rise in rate cut expectations given the currency’s performance this past week. To me, it seems that markets are pricing in a rate cut. If the RBA holds back, a scenario that is seemingly less likely, the Aussie could find support across the board for a few sessions as some of the negative sentiment surrounding the high yielding currency is unwound. I believe that there is greater upside potential than downside potential in the Aussie surrounding this rate decision, as such. It is also worth noting that given the negative sentiment surrounding the Chinese economy, the People’s Bank of China could surprise markets with a rate cut of their own in the near-future in order to quell fears of a hard landing. –CV

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES