News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
Oil - US Crude
Wall Street
More View more
Real Time News
  • Myth or fact? One thing is for sure, there are a lot of misconceptions about trading. Knowing the difference between common trading myths and the reality is essential to long-term success. Find out about these 'myths' here:
  • Moving averages are extremely popular due to its easy-to-use nature and multitude of uses when trading. What are some popular moving averages and how can you use them? Find out:
  • MACD who? The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is a technical indicator which simply measures the relationship of exponential moving averages (EMA). Find out how you can incorporate MACD into your trading strategy here:
  • Looking for a new way to trade reversals? One of the most used reversal candle patterns is known as the Harami. Like most candlestick formation patterns, the Harami tells a story about sentiment in the market. Get better with trading reversals here:
  • Long wick candles are recurrent within the forex market. This makes understanding the meaning behind these candles invaluable to any trader to comprehend the market dynamics during a specific period. Learn about the importance of extended wicks here:
  • Safe haven stocks also allow traders to diversify their portfolio and reduce risk. Learn if safe-haven stocks are made for you here:
  • Knowing how to accurately value a stock enables traders to identify and take advantage of opportunities in the stock market. Find out the difference between a stock's market and intrinsic value, and the importance of the two here:
  • but the next major point in my view to monitor will be 52.76 - at least in the short term.
  • #Brent having broken above the pre-OPEC drop off at 45.51 is a huge deal considering it failed to crack resistance there in August (leading to the invalidation of "uptrend 2") and the psychological significance of that level
  • The New Zealand Dollar looks poised to extend its push higher against its haven-associated counterparts on robust economic data and a less dovish stance from the RBNZ. Get your $NZD market update from @DanielGMoss here:
Australian Dollar at Risk to Head Down Under in the Week Ahead

Australian Dollar at Risk to Head Down Under in the Week Ahead

2012-01-07 03:12:00
Michael Boutros, Strategist
Australian_Dollar_at_Risk_to_Head_Down_Under_in_the_Week_Ahead_body_Picture_5.png, Australian Dollar at Risk to Head Down Under in the Week Ahead

Fundamental Forecast for Australian Dollar: Bearish

The Australian dollar was the one of the top performers against the greenback this week after the kiwi, with an advance of just 0.17%. The first few sessions of 2012 suggested that markets were primed to begin the year on proper footing as the dollar came under significant pressure and risk assets along with the aussie surged. However by week end, it became clear that European concerns- not just in the Euro-zone but in Switzerland and the United Kingdom- would weigh heavily on market sentiment for some time to come. With the aussie pulling back sharply off its highs against the dollar, the world’s reserve currency has shown early signs of decoupling from the inverse relationship with risk as seen today when a stronger-than-expected non-farm payroll report fueled a broad based rally in the greenback. We look for this relationship to continue to break down later this year as positive US data continues to beat consensus estimates.

The Australian economic docket is extremely light next week with only retail sales and building approvals on tap. Consensus estimates call for sales to improve by 0.4% m/m for the month of November, up from a previous print of just 0.2% m/m. Building approvals are also expected to show some signs of improvement with a read of 6.0% m/m, up from a dismal 10.7% contraction in October. Still, the year on year print is expected to come in at -19.8%, up from a previous print of -29.8% y/y. With little in the way of major event risk from the Australian calendar, the aussie will continue to take cues off broader market sentiment with German, Greek, Spain, and Italian bond auctions joining the European Central Bank rate decision to take center stage as the ongoing debt saga in Europe unfolds.

Data out of China could also impact the high yielder next week with the December trade balance, CPI, and PPI figures on tap. Both exports and imports are expected to soften with consensus estimates calling for a trade balance print of $8.80B, down from $14.53B a month earlier. Consumer prices will be closely eyed by traders with estimates calling for a print of 4.0% y/y, down from 4.2% in November, while producer prices are widely expected to ease to 1.6% y/y from 2.7% y/y. As Australia’s largest trade partner, a slowdown in China would weigh heavily on Australian exports putting the aussie at further risk. More telling data out of China will be released the following week when 4Q real GDP figures and industrial production data are expected to show further slowing in the world’s second largest economy.

The AUD/USD closed the week well below the 23.6% Fibonacci extension taken from the August 1st and October 27th crests at 1.0365. Interim resistance stands at the 1.03-figure backed by the 1.0365 with the 200-day moving average holding just higher at 1.0413. The medium-term bias for the pair remains weighted to the downside with support targets held at the 100-day moving average just below the 1.02-handle. Subsequent floors are seen at the 38.2% extension at 1.0120 and parity. For intra-day market levels refer to this week’s AUD/USD scalp report.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.