We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Bearish
Gold
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Bitcoin
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • The Japanese #Yen may rise as the #SP500 outlook risks shifting more bearish on signals in trader positioning. What is the road ahead for $USDJPY given the outbreak of the #coronavirus? - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/article/special_report/2020/02/26/Yen-Outlook-Bullish-USDJPY-May-Fall-as-SP-500-Sees-Dip-Buying.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Dubrovsky&utm_campaign=twr https://t.co/ynFwtuzd6P
  • That's more or less a 268% increase after the government announced expansionary measures such as giving HK$10k to each adult permanent resident... https://t.co/kIM4QNkHuw
  • Hong Kong 2019/20 fiscal deficit at HK$37.9b, 2020/21 deficit at a record HK$139.1b -BBG
  • If you missed this week's session on IG Client Sentiment where I discussed the Japanese Yen and #SP500 outlook, check out the recording on YouTube here $USDJPY $AUDJPY #SPX - https://t.co/6VYWaVuJgZ
  • - Copper price outlook gloomy as #COVID-19 intimidates Chinese demand - Coronavirus threatens to derail global stabilization, pressure commodity - Copper futures have plunged over 10 percent, falling to 17-year uptrend https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/market_alert/2020/02/26/Copper-Outlook-Bleak-as-COVID-19-Threatens-China-Economy.html
  • The $JPY has lost out to a broadly resurgent US Dollar, with a clearly dwindling band of Yen bulls left to hope that the most recent rise has become overextended. Get your market update from @DavidCottleFX here:https://t.co/7Ndm5jiOi7 https://t.co/iXFakOQKJB
  • Commodities Update: As of 03:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 0.90% Silver: 0.38% Gold: 0.30% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/CwYU17wruT
  • RT @DavidInglesTV: U.S. weekly imports from China fell by half last week and early indications is this week will be about half of last week…
  • Forex Update: As of 03:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇨🇦CAD: 0.02% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.01% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.06% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.12% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.13% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.33% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/V5JsKlfFcF
  • Hong Kong 2020 GDP forecast -1.5% to +0.5% -BBG
Australian Dollar Outlook Increasingly Bearish On More RBA Easing

Australian Dollar Outlook Increasingly Bearish On More RBA Easing

2011-12-10 05:18:00
David Song, Currency Strategist
Share:
Australian_Dollar_Outlook_Increasingly_Bearish_On_More_RBA_Easing_body_Picture_5.png, Australian Dollar Outlook Increasingly Bearish On More RBA EasingAustralian_Dollar_Outlook_Increasingly_Bearish_On_More_RBA_Easing_body_Picture_6.png, Australian Dollar Outlook Increasingly Bearish On More RBA Easing

Fundamental Forecast for Australian Dollar: Bearish

The Australian dollar came under pressure as the central bank lowered the benchmark interest rate by another 25bp in December, and the high-yielding currency is likely to weaken further as the fundamental outlook for the isle-nation falters. The economic developments on tap for the following week instills a bearish view for the aussie as we’re expecting to see the housing market deteriorate further, while the trade surplus is anticipated to narrow for the second consecutive month in October.

As the RBA sees an increased risk of a ‘material’ slowdown in global growth, we expect the central bank to carry its easing cycle into the following year, and we may see the board take aggressive steps to shore up the ailing economy as Governor Glen Stevens talks down the risk for inflation. As price pressures subside, we should see the RBA show an increased willingness to ease policy further in 2012, and speculation for additional monetary support is likely to dampen the appeal of the high-yielding currency as Governor Stevens adopts a highly dovish tone for monetary policy. According to Credit Suisse overnight index swaps, market participants still see borrowing costs falling by another 125bp over the next 12-months, and speculation for a slew of rate cuts is likely to produce additional headwinds for the Australian dollar as policy makers step up their efforts to shield the economy. In turn, the short-term reversal from December high (1.0379) looks poised to gather pace in the week ahead, and we may see the AUD/USD give back the rebound from the end of November as the pair appears to have carved out a near-term top.

As the AUD/USD fails to trade above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement from the 2010 low to the 2011 high around 1.0350-60, it seems as though there’s a lower high in place, and we could see a lower low heading into the following year as the outlook for 2012 turns increasingly bleak. However, as risk trends continue to dictate price action in the foreign exchange market, a rise in market sentiment could prop up the high-yielding currency, and we may see the exchange consolidate ahead of the slew of event risks as global policy makers increase their efforts to address the turmoil in the world economy. DS

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.