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Australian Dollar Forecast to Decline Further Amidst Market Turmoil

Australian Dollar Forecast to Decline Further Amidst Market Turmoil

2010-05-21 23:28:00
David Rodriguez, Head of Product
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 Recent CFTC Commitment of Traders data showed that leveraged speculators scaled back their AUD-long futures positioning, but the prospect of further unwind could just as easily produce continued losses in the previously high-flying AUDUSD. Of note, the S&P 500 Volatility Index continues to trade above the psychologically significant 40% mark. Such clear market fear does not bode well for the highly risk-sensitive AUD and plainly leaves risks to the downside unless we see substantial improvement in financial market risk sentiment. Likewise of note, US Treasury-Eurodollar (TED) interest rate spread climbed to fresh multi-month highs, emphasizing growing tensions below the surface. The steady climb in risk premiums show that credit markets are once again growing risk averse and greatly favoring the security of Government debt. 

 
It seems that Australian Dollar risks remain to the downside amidst such financial market headwinds, and it will be critical to watch whether the US S&P 500 and other risk barometers see any significant improvement in the week ahead. Absent such a shift, the AUDUSD may continue to decline on an unwind in financial market leverage. An effectively empty Australian economic calendar leaves the Aussie dollar to the whims of broader financial market flows. - DR
 
How far do you think the dollar will rally? Discuss the dollar’s future in the DailyFX Forum.
 
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