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Australian Dollar Trajectory Depends on Greece Debt Crisis

Australian Dollar Trajectory Depends on Greece Debt Crisis

2010-03-19 22:31:00
David Rodriguez, Head of Business Development

The Australian Dollar finished the week almost exactly unchanged against its US namesake, setting fresh two-month highs before tumbling into Friday’s close. Early-week rallies in key financial asset classes bolstered the high-yielding Australian currency; given the highest short-term interest rates of the G10, the AUD remains a key target of global speculative capital. It nonetheless serves to note that the minutes from the most recent Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate decision dampened optimism for the future of domestic yields. RBA Governor Glenn Stevens said that the bank’s proactive interest rate increases gave it considerable leeway for the timing of future policy tightening. The week ahead likewise promises RBA event risk with the bank’s Financial Stability Review due Wednesday. Yet an otherwise empty week of Australian economic event risk leaves the currency roughly at the whims of broader financial trends. 

We would like to claim that the upcoming RBA report will cause substantial volatility for the Australian Dollar, but recent central bank rhetoric has likely covered much of what will be said in the coming week’s report. It is of course irresponsible to completely ignore the potentially market-moving event—especially as we will potentially get a much more in-depth look at the RBA’s stance on key issues. Recent RBA minutes conspicuously mentioned potential fallout from Euro Zone sovereign debt crises and contagion to Australia’s shores itself. Such rhetoric only underlines the interconnectedness of financial markets and importantly, Australia’s links to broader trends.
Nowhere is the international coupling theme clearer than in the Australian Dollar’s strong links to the S&P 500 and other key asset classes. Above all, we believe that global risk sentiment will continue to be the main AUDUSD mover and traders should position themselves accordingly. It will be critical to see whether the S&P 500 can break to fresh highs in the week ahead. 

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