News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Elon Musk remains a key catalyst of crypto volatility, illustrated again over the past week. Shiba Inu, the ‘Dogecoin killer’ slayed in Bitcoin blood bath. Get your market update from @Tams707 here:https://t.co/XSq0Z58Muq https://t.co/Xj3DDGDCAT
  • Crypto exchange Binance is said to face investigations from the Justice Department and IRS - Bitcoin back below 50,000
  • Slight jawboning from BoC Governor, however, CAD sees a muted reaction to the comment https://t.co/1enbIJhAX6
  • - If $CAD moves a lot higher it could have a material impact on our outlook and how we set monetary policy
  • - If $CAD continues to rise could be more of a headwind to export projections
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 91.09%, while traders in GBP/JPY are at opposite extremes with 68.92%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/uHjF1RXMxX
  • Heads Up:🇺🇸 Fed Waller Speech due at 17:00 GMT (15min) https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-05-13
  • Macklem Q&A - Expect inflation to go up to 3% before pulling back - Would not over rotate on one month's inflation data
  • Commodities Update: As of 16:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Gold: 0.61% Silver: -0.06% Oil - US Crude: -3.58% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/cupf2HmOUY
  • The price of oil appears to be stuck within the opening range for May amid the failed attempt to test the March high ($67.98). Get #crudeoil market update from @DavidJSong here:https://t.co/6r9Iger50J https://t.co/LC27xlCypr
US Dollar Fundamental Outlook: All Eyes on Treasury Yields as Stocks Wobble

US Dollar Fundamental Outlook: All Eyes on Treasury Yields as Stocks Wobble

Daniel Dubrovsky, Strategist

US Dollar Fundamental Forecast: Bullish

  • US Dollar sees its best week against major peers in months
  • Rising Treasury yields unnerving stocks, will this continue?
  • Eyes on US non-farm payrolls report at the end of the week

Against an average of its major counterparts, the Euro, British Pound, Australian Dollar and Japanese Yen, the US Dollar experienced its best week in about 4 months. The haven-linked Greenback capitalized on a couple of trends in financial markets that may leave it in a position to benefit from again in the next. These are a combination of reflationary expectations and rising longer-dated Treasury yields.

According to Bloomberg, about 218.9 million vaccine doses have been administered globally. In the US, about 67.8 million doses have been given out. Meanwhile, President Joe Biden is inching closer to passing a US$ 1.9 trillion Covid-relief package. A potentially larger infrastructure package is in the works to follow-up on the Covid-related aid. This has in turn boosted local growth and inflation prospects in the medium-term.

As a result, longer-dated Treasury yields have been rising as investors begin to price in an unwinding of loose monetary policy in the long run, perhaps coming sooner-than-expected. Meanwhile, returns in government debt on the front-end remain suppressed by current quantitative easing measures to keep the economy supported. Fed Chair Jerome Powell didn’t seem concerned about rising rates at testimony this past week.

Rising yields in Treasuries make it relatively more expensive to invest in the stock market, because the ‘risk-free’ rate is becoming slowly more competitive. Given what has been perceived as stretched equity valuations, it isn’t too surprising to see a healthy correction in equities. It remains to be seen if this defensive mood will hold in the near-term, but the US Dollar could continue benefiting here.

Ahead, the US will release its latest non-farm payrolls report. According to the Citi Economic Surprise Index, data out of the world’s largest economy has been tending to outperform as of late. A better-than-expected result could amplify some of the moves seen in Treasuries, with a particular focus on average hourly earnings. Check out the DailyFX Economic Calendar for updates on these outcomes.

US Dollar Versus Treasury Yields and Risk Appetite

US Dollar vs. Treasury Yields vs. Risk Appetite

Chart Created in TradingView

--- Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES